Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Saturday, August 15 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 1.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Antietam (1st race)
First Race
1. Antietam
2. Salming
3. The Toy Cannon
ANTIETAM scored his top figure win going longer when back from a freshening two starts back, though his one-turn races earlier this year were also solid; tried moving up in class when kept going longer off the claim last time; back quickly with class relief, and turning back is no issue for him. SALMING was behind wire-to-wire winners in his first two starts off the claim for his prior connections; had a better setup and rolled to a big new Beyer top in that last one; off the claim again, this time for a barn that has been heating up recently. THE TOY CANNON tried moving up in class for his first two starts off the claim; he had a tough trip in the first of those starts, and he dueled in a race that fell apart late last time; last two starts in the claiming ranks resulted in blowout wins, and he was claimed both times; drops back down.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other eleven races on Saturday’s Saratoga card.
Second Race
1. Big Handsome
2. Silver Knight
3. Saratoga Tea
BIG HANDSOME has pedigree behind him – the dam was a Grade 3-placed dirt sprinter after winning her debut, and this is the female family of the quick sprinter Disco Rico; has looked good working up to this for an underrated first-out trainer, and Prat takes the mount. SILVER KNIGHT debuted in a relatively slow race, though he received a good education in that spot when breaking a bit awkwardly and then rushing up to race behind the leaders and taking a ton of dirt in his face before tiring in the stretch; moves outside and adds blinkers. SARATOGA TEA debuted in the same race as SILVER KNIGHT early in the meet. He was put on the chase after a solid pace in that spot, and he fought his way to a very brief lead in the stretch before the closers arrived to take over; can easily do better for a trainer sporting strong numbers with horses like this – 2yo, second-time starter, dirt, sprint, maiden: 10 for his last 24, 42%, $2.70 ROI.
Third Race
1. Road Show
2. Cut Down the Nets
3. Arawak
ROAD SHOW was rated back to last at the start, then swung in/out to the stretch and put in a good finish while never looking all in in what appeared to be a useful debut run early in the meet; likely improves with that experience behind him. CUT DOWN THE NETS faced Booked in his debut vs open company; looked like a better fit with fellow NY-breds when second-best to a well-meant firster last time; experience counts. ARAWAK has been breezing right along for Maker and has four five-furlong works showing on the way to the career debut; new sire has a couple of debut winners already; the dam was a debut winner (on turf).
Fourth Race
1. Lady Rose
2. Top of the Table
3. Grace Reformed
LADY ROSE earned a field-best 76 Beyer, breaking her maiden over this distance late last year in what was just the second start of her career as a 2yo; came right back to run well in each of her first two starts this year, including another win two back; stretches back out after chasing a wire-to-wire winner going shorter last time. TOP OF THE TABLE needed class relief to win back on New Year’s Day, though that effort came on the back of a tough beat in his prior start, and he has looked overmatched when racing back up in class since; makes his second start back from a freshening for Rice. GRACE REFORMED is a five-time winner, and she has run her race in NY consistently despite settling for second several times over the past year or so; might have needed the recent three-month break after going off form a bit in the spring.
Fifth Race
1. Bertrille
2. Considerate City
3. Tongue Twister
BERTRILLE ran well two back when switched to this trainer; didn’t get the right trip when stuck outside last time; drew a better post for this, and he is fast enough to take advantage of his rail draw while getting a rider change. CONSIDERATE CITY looks like the one to beat while dropping out of a solid try in stakes company when rallying for second behind a sharp, wire-to-wire winner; looks well-spotted to get over the hump after settling for second in three straight. TONGUE TWISTER was a maiden winner here as a 3yo, then ran well here twice last summer when facing tougher for the level both times; she cut a solid pace off the layoff, then took the blinkers off and got wired when dropped for her next start; ran fine with blinkers back on when in another race dominated up close last time; tries again.
Sixth Race
1. Belle N Brooke
2. Tumoohaat
3. Libby Lloyd
BELLE N BROOKE’s sire is off to a hot start with 9 winners from his first 27 debut runners; this filly is out of a Grade 2-placed dam, and she has some serious works showing for an excellent first-out trainer. Homebred TUMOOHAAT has a regal pedigree, being by Into Mischief and out of Shadwell’s six-time Grade 1 winner Malathaat – who also won her career debut sprinting as a 2yo; has looked good breezing up to this for Pletcher. LIBBY LLOYD is also by Into Mischief, and this filly’s dam was a sharp debut winner here several years back with a 90 Beyer, also for this trainer; has been breezing right along.
Seventh Race
1. Bite and Strike
2. Attfield
3. Spiced Up
BITE AND STRIKE recovered from a slow start to post an impressive win when sprinting for the first time on turf off the Rice claim in May; ran an even better race last time when handy from the start, before once again powering away from the field to make it 2 for 2 for this trainer; this will be tougher, but he is going good now. ATTFIELD chased from the start and stayed gamely to finally tag a speedy rival on the wire when winning his debut over this course and distance; stretched out effectively to become a stakes winner two starts later, though he hasn’t progressed as a router so far this year; new gelding tries turning back with Lasix on. SPICED UP was a stakes winner sprinting on turf here last summer; thought he ran fine off the layoff when conservatively ridden at Keeneland, and he was back on track last time when just missing in his return to Saratoga.
Eighth Race
1. Q B Rocket
2. Vukota
3. Card Man
$1.9 million yearling Q B ROCKET ships up from Kentucky with some strong works showing for Cox – past five years, 2yo, first-time starter, Saratoga: 26%, $3.40 ROI, 4 already this summer; Gun Runner colt’s stakes-placed dam is a sister to multiple Grade 1-placed juvenile Top Declie, who is the dam of champion 3yo in Japan Danon Declie. VUKOTA has progressed to five furlongs in the morning, including a couple of bullets over that distance on this surface; sire Vekoma hits with an incredible 24% of his juvenile first-time starters, and the first five foals from this dam are winners, 4 of them stakes winners. CARD MAN is by hot new sire Life Is Good (9 debut winners already); the dam is a sister to Breeders’ Cup FM Sprint winner Wavell Avenue; has kept company in the morning with Gaugdreau, a debut winner for this trainer last weekend with an 89 Beyer.
Ninth Race
1. Ole Crazy Bone
2. Survie
3. Minaret Station
OLE CRAZY BONE wired the Bowling Green last time going a bit shorter, though going this distance – and racing without the lead – is unlikely to be an issue based on his convincing win in the rich Kentucky Turf Cup last September; suspect his connections have that race in mind again, so showing up here to try a Grade 1 is likely a positive sign for this 6yo, who has been in excellent form since the Maker claim. SURVIE just made her stateside debut here 13 days ago, flying through the final furlong to run over some overmatched filly and mare rivals going this trip; getting back out in distance was clearly a positive for her, and she has plenty of back class; taking her seriously right back. MINARET STATION has gotten untracked a bit too late in all three starts since returning from the layoff as a 4yo; still had his potent late kick when stretched out for the Bowling Green; needs the right trip.
Tenth Race
1. Epic Lady Luck
2. Mauna Loa
3. Triskelion
EPIC LADY LUCK’s lone win to date came on the all-weather, though she has run very well in all three starts on this surface, including that last one when blocked with run until it was too late; the 79 Beyer she earned for that effort does not leave her with much to find against this field, and that was seven months ago. MAUNA LOA sat professionally before forcing her way clear in the stretch en route to winning her lone start as a 2yo; ran off on the lead when stretched out around two turns off the layoff, but she was much handier when crushing that allowance field last time with a strong figure; forward to go and getting back on turf is no issue. TRISKELION took a tough beat in her 3yo debut when forced to contest the pace and gamely holding all the way down to the stripes, before getting nailed by a one-run closer; sat a three-wide trip with the pace before determinedly getting up in that stakes win last time; threat right back.
Eleventh Race
1. Calling Card
2. Come Full Circle
3. Dinner Royale
CALLING CARD’s previous connections got a bit overly ambitious following a big win in the dirt debut early last year; finally found the right field last time when winning off easily, now moves into a protected spot off the claim for Rice. COME FULL CIRCLE is in good form but he struggles to win races; gets a rider change to Prat as he tries to snap a losing streak that dates back to the maiden win on this track last August. DINNER ROYALE earned a competitive figure, breaking his maiden in his first start back from a long layoff in June; caught a sloppy track for his first start against other winners, where he contested the pace in a race that went to closers, including COME FULL CIRCLE; still has upside, and his speed can help overcome the inside draw from the chute.
Twelfth Race
1. Osiris Law
2. Gilbane
3. Mo Curls
OSIRIS LAW gained some late ground from last in the debut when facing open maiden claimers over synthetic; ships up switching to turf for the second start, and he is bred for this as a half to three turf winners, including Big Screen (stakes win and Grade 3-placed on the surface, 99 Beyer top). GILBANE just missed in his debut last October when favored; made his return as a 3yo at this level, where he sat a nice trip before running to the lead in the stretch, only to get closed down on the wire by a favored winner; logical right back. MO CURLS made his first turf start sprinting and passed some horses in the stretch after getting outpaced early; stretched out for his one turf start so far this year, where he showed some speed against a tougher field; needs this class drop.
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