Preseason Week 1 NFL Betting Trends:
The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL preseason games of Week 1. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFLPS board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NFL Preseason games between conference opponents with totals of 37 or higher have gone Under at a 54-25 rate (68.4%) since September 2015!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-NE (o/u at 37.5), MIN-NYG (o/u at 41.5), DAL-SEA (o/u at 39.5)
-SAN FRANCISCO is on a 10-1-1 ATS surge as a preseason underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+4.5 vs TEN)
-Outright winners are on an incredible 39-1-1 ATS run in DENVER preseason games.
* NFL Preseason road underdogs of 2.5 points or less have gone 84-43 ATS since 2015, good for 66.1%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CHARGERS (+1.5 at HOU), ARIZONA (+1.5 at LVR), CAROLINA (+1.5 at BUF), LA RAMS (+2.5 at KC), JACKSONVILLE (+1.5 at NO)
-ATLANTA is just 2-12-1 SU & 1-14 ATS in its last 15 home preseason games
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+6 vs DEN)
NFL Preseason Systematic Betting Concepts
The following systems were from the article NFL Top Ten Preseason Betting Concepts to Consider for 2026 posted on Monday, August 10th, 2026
Line ranges have proven very telling
Since 2010, there have been 18 teams that have been favored by more than 7 points. Only eleven of these heavy favorites won their games outright, and they were just 6-12 ATS (33.3%). At the same time, favorites in the “sweet spot” range of -3.5 to -7 have been quite reliable, going 161-136-4 ATS for 54.2%. Most games however, tend to land in the -1 to -3 range, and those contests are where the underdogs thrive. Since 2015, underdogs in the +1 to +3 range own a highly profitable record of 190-128 ATS, good for 59.7%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): FAVORITES -3.5 to -7 – CINCINNATI (-6.5 vs DET), TENNESSEE (-4.5 at SF), NY JETS (-6 vs TB), DENVER (-6 at ATL), PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 at BAL), SEATTLE (-3.5 vs DAL)
UNDERDOGS +1 to +3 – PITTSBURGH (+1.5 vs GB), NEW ENGLAND (+2.5 vs IND), LA CHARGERS (+1.5 at HOU), ARIZONA (+1.5 at LVR), WASHINGTON (+3 vs MIA), CAROLINA (+1.5 at BUF), NY GIANTS (+1.5 vs MIN), CHICAGO (+2.5 vs CLE), LA RAMS (+2.5 at KC), JACKSONVILLE (+1.5 at NO)
Home field advantage usually means very little in tight-lined games
In looking at the home/road results of the last 14 NFL preseasons, there have been only four years where home teams finished with a record of better than .500 ATS. In fact, since 2011, road teams own a 418-378 ATS edge, good for 52.5%, and essentially enough to make a profit without any other handicapping considered. However, the absolute best time to back road teams is in spots where they are underdogs of 2.5 points or less, as they have gone 84-43 ATS as such since 2015, good for 66.1%! These road underdogs had another strong season in ’25, producing a 5-2 ATS record.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA CHARGERS (+1.5 at HOU), ARIZONA (+1.5 at LVR), CAROLINA (+1.5 at BUF), LA RAMS (+2.5 at KC), JACKSONVILLE (+1.5 at NO)
“37” is a magic number for totals
Since 2010 in the NFL preseason, the number 37 has proven to be quite the benchmark in terms of totals. Totals less than 37 have gone Over at a rate of 57.2% (317-237), and were 14-8 Over in last year’s very high-scoring 2025 preseason. Those closing totals of 37 or higher have gone Under at a 56.4% clip (565-436). However, they were 17-10 Over last year.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER (O/U < 37) – LAC-HOU, TB-NYJ, MIA-WAS, LAR-KC, JAX-NO, PHI-BAL
UNDER (O/U >= 37) – DET-CIN, GB-PIT, IND-NE, ARI-LVR, TEN-SF, DEN-ATL, CAR-BUF, MIN-NYG, CLE-CHI, DAL-SEA
Preseason games between conference opponents lean heavily Under
Interestingly, dating back to September 2015, preseason games between opponents from the same conference have trended heavily Under the total, going 67-44 Under (60.4%). Just eight of last year’s 49 games fell into this category, however. Furthermore, if you add the qualifiers from #7 above to that time span, preseason games between conference opponents with totals of 37 or higher have gone Under at a 54-25 rate (68.4%) since September 2015!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): IND-NE (o/u at 37.5), LAC-HOU (o/u at 36.5), MIN-NYG (o/u at 41.5), DAL-SEA (o/u at 39.5)
Top Preseason Team Situational NFL Betting Trends
These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of preseason action:
Overall Trends
– ATLANTA is on a 5-24-1 SU and 5-25 ATS skid in the preseason
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+6 vs DEN)
– BUFFALO is on a 14-5-1 Over the total run in the preseason
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CAR-BUF (o/u at 37.5)
– CAROLINA was on a 1-8 SU and ATS skid in the preseason prior to its win in the Hall of Fame Game vs. Arizona
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+1.5 at BUF)
– CHICAGO is 9-2-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in the last four preseasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+2.5 vs CLE)
– CHICAGO is 18-5-1 Over the total in its last 24 preseason games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-CHI (o/u at 39.5)
– CINCINNATI has struggled to a 4-15-1 SU and 8-12 ATS record in its last 20 preseason contests
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-6.5 vs DET)
– Dating back to 2013, DALLAS is just 13-31 SU and 12-29-3 ATS in the preseason
Trend Match (FADE): DALLAS (+3.5 at SEA)
– Outright winners are on an incredible 39-1-1 ATS run in DENVER preseason games. The Broncos have won and covered seven straight heading into 2026.
– DETROIT is on an 18-8 Over the total surge in preseason games, allowing 23.8 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-CIN (o/u at 38.5)
– HOUSTON is on a 15-3 Under the total run in preseason games, total point production 32.2 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-HOU (o/u at 36.5)
– INDIANAPOLIS is on a 15-5 Over the total run in preseason action, total point production 42.0 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-NE (o/u at 37.5)
– KANSAS CITY has lost six straight preseason games while going 1-5 ATS
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-2.5 vs LAR)
– LA CHARGERS are on a five game Over the total streak in preseason action, scoring 26.4 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-HOU (o/u at 36.5)
– LA RAMS have won six straight preseason games ATS
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (+2.5 at KC)
– LAS VEGAS hasn’t won a preseason game since 2023, going 0-6-1 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last seven
Trend Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (-1.5 vs ARI)
– MIAMI has gone 13-6-1 SU and 14-6 ATS in its last 20 preseason games
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-3 at WAS)
– NEW ENGLAND is on a current 15-6 Under the total surge in the preseason
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-NE (o/u at 37.5)
– The NY GIANTS are 14-5 Over the total in preseason games since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-NYG (o/u at 41.5)
– The NY JETS are on a 13-5-1 SU and 13-6 ATS run in the preseason, definitively beating their regular season performance levels
Trend Match (PLAY): NY JETS (-6 vs TB)
– PITTSBURGH has been one of the best preseason teams in the league under Mike Tomlin, going 20-8 SU and an 18-10 ATS run in their last 28
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+1.5 vs GB)
– WASHINGTON has struggled in recent preseasons, going 6-15 SU and 5-16 ATS since 2018
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+3 vs MIA)
Home/Road Trends
– ARIZONA is on a 2-7 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in preseason games away from home, including its loss in the Hall of Fame Game
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+1.5 at LVR)
– ATLANTA is just 2-12-1 SU and 1-14 ATS in its last 15 home preseason games, as well as 12-3 Under the total, scoring just 10.7 PPG
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+6 vs DEN)
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-ATL (o/u at 40.5)
– BUFFALO is on a 13-3 Over the total surge in preseason home games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CAR-BUF (o/u at 37.5)
– CHICAGO is on an impressive streak of 6-0 ATS in home preseason games
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+2.5 vs CLE)
– CINCINNATI is just 3-12 ATS in its last 15 preseason games at home
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-6.5 vs DET)
– CLEVELAND boasts an 11-3-1 SU and 13-2 ATS mark in its last 15 preseason contests on the road
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-2.5 at CHI)
– DALLAS is 2-18 SU and 4-16 ATS on the preseason road since 2012
Trend Match (FADE): DALLAS (+3.5 at SEA)
– INDIANAPOLIS has gone Over the total in its last seven preseason road games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-NE (o/u at 37.5)
– JACKSONVILLE is on a 14-6 Under the total road preseason run
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): JAX-NO (o/u at 35.5)
– LA RAMS are on a 9-2 Under the total run in preseason games away from home
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAR-KC (o/u at 36.5)
– LAS VEGAS is on a 7-2-1 SU and 8-2 ATS preseason home game surge, holding opponents to 13.2 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY): ARI-LVR (o/u at 41.5)
– MIAMI is on a 14-4 Over the total surge on the road
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-WAS (o/u at 36.5)
– NY GIANTS are 8-2 Over the total in their last 10 preseason home games, scoring 24.7 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-NYG (o/u at 41.5)
– TAMPA BAY has gone Under the total in the last six on the road
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-NYJ (o/u at 35.5)
– TENNESSEE has gone Over the total in the last seven road preseason contests
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): TEN-SF (o/u at 39.5)
Off SU Win/Loss Trends
– CAROLINA is on a 2-9 ATS skid in their last 11 preseason games following a win, a trend that will be tested this week at Buffalo
Trend Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+1.5 at BUF)
Favorite/Underdog Trends
– CHICAGO is 17-4 ATS since 2015 as a preseason underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+2.5 vs CLE)
– CINCINNATI is on a 3-10 ATS as preseason chalk
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-6.5 vs DET)
– CLEVELAND is 1-9 ATS in the last 10 as a preseason favorite
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-2.5 at CHI)
– DENVER is 16-4 SU and 14-5-1 ATS in the last 20 as a preseason favorite
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-6 at ATL)
– GREEN BAY is 14-4 SU and ATS as a preseason favorite since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-1.5 at PIT)
– INDIANAPOLIS are 11-1 Over the total in the last 12 as preseason favorite
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-NE (o/u at 37.5)
– LA RAMS have covered six straight preseason games as underdogs
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (+2.5 at KC)
– LAS VEGAS has lost six straight ATS as preseason favorite
Trend Match (FADE): LAS VEGAS (-1.5 vs ARI)
– NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 Under the total in the last 17 as preseason underdog
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): IND-NE (o/u at 37.5)
– PHILADELPHIA is on a 2-6-1 SU and 1-7-1 ATS skid when laying points in the preseason
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-3.5 at BAL)
– PITTSBURGH is 10-4 SU and ATS in the last 14 as preseason underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+1.5 vs GB)
– SAN FRANCISCO is on a 10-1-1 ATS surge as a preseason underdog
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+4.5 vs TEN)
Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data
The following systems are from the article NFL Preseason Top Betting Splits Trends for 2026 posted on Wednesday, August 12, 2026. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #1: Looking back at the 2023-25 NFL preseasons, majority handle bettors on sides have gone just 62-77 ATS (44.6%). Until proven otherwise, any August majority handle in the NFL should be faded.
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #2: For the’23-25 NFL preseasons, majority bets groups on sides were just 66-78 ATS (45.6%). This is another majority group that should be faded until further notice.
Systems Match: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLES AND BETS ON SIDES
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #4: When the majority handle backed either team in a 2023-25 preseason game that had a point spread with one team favored by 3.5 points or higher, that majority group went just 29-40 ATS (42%). This is a drop from the 44.6% overall win rate in system #1, so worth further consideration.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, SAN FRANCISCO, NY JETS, DENVER, PHILADELPHIA, DALLAS
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority number of bets backed a 2023-25 NFL preseason team in a game with a point spread of 2.5 points or lower, that group was just 17-32 ATS (34.6%). This is 11% worse than the overall bets majority win rate. Look to fade the majority number of bettors in expected tight games this month.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, NEW ENGLAND, HOUSTON, ARIZONA, BUFFALO, NY GIANTS, CHICAGO, LA RAMS, JACKSONVILLE
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was 59% or greater on any home team in the 2023-25 NFL preseasons, that group went 22-31 ATS (41.5%). These bigger majorities also lost more than the overall groups by over 4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, NEW ENGLAND, HOUSTON, SAN FRANCISCO, WASHINGTON, ATLANTA, BUFFALO, NY GIANTS, CHICAGO
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #7: Over the last two preseasons, in games between conference opponents, majority handle (14-20 ATS – 41.1%) and number of bets groups (13-20 – 39.4%) have struggled when backing one of the teams. While most preseason games are of the non-conference variety, this is another opportunity to fade majorities at a higher success rate.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ENGLAND, HOUSTON, NY GIANTS, DALLAS
Were there any systems in the 2023-25 NFL preseasons in which majorities actually won? Yes! Here are those few spots:
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #8: For the 2023-25 NFL preseasons, majority bets groups of over 60% on road teams were 21-16 ATS (56.8%). This is an improvement of over 11% for majority groups, and I’m willing to endorse it since it goes so much against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, ARIZONA, TAMPA BAY, LA RAMS, JACKSONVILLE, PHILADELPHIA, DALLAS
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #9: For the 2024 and 2025 NFL preseasons, majority bets groups on totals were 63-35 ATS (64.2%) when favoring either side of the total. This has been a massive win for majority groups, and since it happened almost equally in back-to-back years, it could be a trend to follow.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ALL NUMBER OF BETS ON TOTALS FAVOR THE OVER CURRENTLY
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #11: When the majority of the handle backed either team in a 2024 and 2025 preseason game that saw a line move of 3 points or more from open to close, that group was 27-16 ATS (62.8%), a very strong return. It’s rare for bettors to trust the oddsmakers, and when they have, they’ve won. This creates a dangerous situation for those on the other side of the counter.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY JETS, CLEVELAND
NFLPS DK Betting Splits system #12: In the 2023-24 NFL preseasons, majority handle and number of bets bettors at DraftKings were 18-13 (58.1%) on totals in conference games. Not spectacular, but a profitable follow chance.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – IND-NE, LAC-HOU, MIN-NYG, DAL-SEA
This Week’s NFLPS Strength Ratings
The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TAMPA BAY +6 (+4.5)
2. NEW ENGLAND +2.5 (+2.9)
3(tie). CHICAGO +3.5 (+1.9)
BALTIMORE +3.5 (+1.9)
5. DETROIT +6.5 (+1.8)
This week’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -3 (+2.2)
2(tie). HOUSTON -1.5 (+0.5)
LAS VEGAS -1.5 (+0.5)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TAMPA BAY +6 (+7.2)
2. NEW ENGLAND +2.5 (+3.0)
3. CHICAGO +2.5 (+1.9)
4. NY GIANTS +1.5 (+1.8)
5. LA RAMS +2.5 (+1.4)
This week’s Top 4 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BUFFALO -1.5 (+0.8)
2. CINCINNATI -6.5 (+0.6)
3. HOUSTON -1.5 (+0.5)
4. MIAMI -3 (+0.2)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TB-NYJ OVER 35.5 (+3.7)
2. PHI-BAL OVER 35.5 (+1.5)
3. MIA-WAS OVER 35.5 (+1.0)
4. DET-CIN OVER 38.5 (+0.4)
5. LAR-KC OVER 36.5 (+0.3)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-NYG UNDER 41.5 (-2.7)
2. CLE-CHI UNDER 39.5 (-2.4)
3. GB-PIT UNDER 39.5 (-2.3)
4. CAR-BUF UNDER 37.5 (-1.9)
5. DEN-ATL UNDER 40.5 (-1.4)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TAMPA BAY +6 (+4.2)
2. NEW ENGLAND +2.5 (+3.7)
3. NY GIANTS +1.5 (+2.5)
4. BALTIMORE +3.5 (+1.5)
5. CHICAGO +2.5 (+1.3)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIAMI -3 (+2.3)
2. TENNESSEE -4.5 (+1.2)
3(tie). GREEN BAY -1.5 (+1.1)
DENVER -6 (+1.1)
5. HOUSTON -1.5 (+0.5)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TB-NYJ OVER 35.5 (+3.1)
2. CAR-BUF OVER 37.5 (+1.4)
3. LAR-KC OVER 36.5 (+1.2)
4. PHI-BAL OVER 35.5 (+1.0)
5. MIA-WAS OVER 36.5 (+0.9)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-NYG UNDER 41.5 (-4.7)
2. GB-PIT UNDER 39.5 (-1.8)
3. DEN-ATL UNDER 40.5 (-1.6)
4(tie). TEN-SF UNDER 39.5 (-1.1)
CLE-CHI UNDER 39.5 (-1.1)
Top Head-to-Head Preseason Series NFL Betting Trends
These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ preseason action:
8/13/26 – ARIZONA at LAS VEGAS
* Underdogs are 4-1 SU and ATS in ARI-LVR preseason series since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+1.5 at LVR)
8/15/26 – CAROLINA at BUFFALO
* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six preseason matchups between the Panthers and Bills
Trend Match (PLAY): CAR-BUF (o/u at 37.5)
8/15/26 – DALLAS at SEATTLE
* Home teams are 3-0 SU and ATS in the DAL-SEA preseason set since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-3.5 vs DAL)
