Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Saturday, August 29 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 4.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Alto Blues (4th race)
Fourth Race
1. Alto Blues
2. Print
3. Instability
ALTO BLUES was impressive charging down the leaders after sitting a handy trip first time out; ran well again last time when rating further back before finishing well into a poor setup; made those two starts in France on a different surface, but getting to turf is not supposed to be an issue based on his pedigree; Lasix on. PRINT’s lone win so far – and top Beyer Speed Figure – was earned on dirt; his turf form has really picked up recently, including a pair of underrated efforts in stakes company; steps back looking for a trip. INSTABILITY easily won his debut after sitting a nice trip; just missed becoming a stakes winner in his next start, though he was a short price in that spot and was only second-best; was returning from a three-month layoff when coming up completely empty last time; guess he’s better than that, but he keeps getting bet, and there are questions to answer now.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other thirteen races on Saturday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Mission Integrity
2. Club Reign
3. Beau Valor
MISSION INTEGRITY has looked good breezing up to his debut and has some pedigree to work with as a son of 13% juvenile debut sire Maximus Mischief (17% with dirt sprinters), from a dam who was a blowout winner of her career debut; the second dam is a sister to Grade 1 winner Early Pioneer (112 Beyer top, over $1 million in earnings). CLUB REIGN looked good powering through a 9.4 breeze before these connections paid up for this son of $5k stallion Core Beliefs (1 for 14 so far with first-time starters); has continued to train well up to this for a capable first-out trainer (16%, $3.29 ROI with 2yo first-time starters in dirt sprints; 2 wins at Saratoga). BEAU VALOR debuts for a trainer who tends to do better with his juvenile dirt sprinters after a start, and there is a gap in the works tab between 6/1 and 7/6, but he appears to be back on track on his recent breezes while keeping company with some older stablemates.
Second Race
1. Gun Range
2. Caldo Candy
3. Anyway
GUN RANGE sat wide and just off the pace before easily putting away a pair of next-out winners to score on debut; made his second start in an ultra-tough allowance, where he lost all chance when stumbling badly at the start; rates another chance against this field. CALDO CANDY was also in that strongly run allowance here on June 6; he had a better trip than did GUN RANGE that day, though he did get in some stretch traffic; ran much better last time when having to alter course late behind a front-running winner; likes Saratoga and owns a top effort that puts him there. ANYWAY has improved noticeably since being turned back to sprint by Linda Rice; gets extra credit for that last one after being shuffled back around the turn, before finishing strongly to get up; going for three in a row, but this is tougher.
Third Race
1. Liberty’s Secret
2. Grazie
3. K Gun
LIBERTY’S SECRET ran an underrated race on debut last September before being put away; returned with an impressive win in her 3yo debut, and she might also have been best last time when winding up last early, before finishing gamely after a front-running winner; still has room to improve and figures tough right back. GRAZIE handled a wet track to win her debut here as a 2yo, and has made both dirt starts since in stakes company; weakened to finish third, but she ran the second-best race in the Seeking the Ante last August after being forced to chase Iron Orchard from the start; Lasix on for the first start back. K GUN began in cheaper races, but she was good going three for three to start her career, including the win two back with a field-best 80 Beyer; ran well again last time, but not as well as LIBERTY’S SECRET; not out of this.
Fifth Race
1. Honoree
2. Caroline St. Beat
3. Twirling Lad
HONOREE overcame a stumble at the start with a strong finish to win his 3yo debut off the layoff; a lack of early speed has cost him badly in both starts since, particularly two back when moving way too early to try a long, wide run to contention, only to flatten out late; needs a better trip, but giving him one more chance. CAROLINE ST. BEAT was a good-looking debut winner here as a 2yo; has acquitted himself well in two stakes races since, including the 3yo debut when dueling and just missing to the in-form Chummers, who came right back to win another stakes race last week with an 87 Beyer. TWIRLING LAD contested the pace and faded in a race that went to closers last time; prior effort was a good one when more comfortable up front; this is a pretty strong field for the level, but he’s dangerous if the pace doesn’t get out of hand.
Sixth Race
1. Foxiest
2. Cruising Again
3. Virabhadrasana
FOXIEST is a homebred out of Grade 1 Test and Breeders’ Cup FM Sprint winner Covfefe, whose first two foals are both winners with top figures in the 90s; works look very good for an excellent first-out barn. CRUISING AGAIN was working fast up to her debut here early in the meet, and she brought that speed with her in the afternoon, though she could not sustain it to the wire and had to settle for third; has come back with another blazing breeze since; draws outside, and her early foot makes it hard on the newcomers. VIRABHADRASANA lacked sprint speed and was outrun in her first start; was kept over behind horses until reaching the top of the stretch, then moved wide and finished well without threatening the leaders in a start she likely needed; might want even more ground than this, but she can benefit from the experience, and CRUISING AGAIN likely ensures that she has something to run at here.
Seventh Race
1. Bella Knows
2. Shelzawa
3. River Ride
BELLA KNOWS took advantage of a great pace setup to win her debut as a 2yo sprinting; she finished second in a stakes race when stretched out for the first time before the layoff, and she has looked like an improved filly in her first two starts as a 3yo; she lost as the favorite in a similar race last time, but she had a less-than-ideal trip that day. SHELZAWA ran well in both starts in France before shipping over, and she has also run well in both starts over here for top connections; came wide off the turn and ran over a next-out winner to break her maiden over course and distance when last seen; trips will always be important to her as a closing-type, but her form is solid. RIVER RIDE finished a good second to a talented winner (the same filly defeated BELLA KNOWS in her next start) when second in her NY debut; good ride in her next start going to the lead to wire maidens, and she ran fine again last time from further back; can get a better trip than that, and she still has upside.
Eighth Race
1. Englishman
2. Deep Flame
3. Local Knowledge
ENGLISHMAN was defeated on the square in the Pat Day Mile two back, but he has otherwise been impressive while posting blowout wins in his other three starts, including the Grade 1 last time over this track and trip; hard to go against at a short price. DEEP FLAME isn’t at ENGLISHMAN levels at this point, but he’s pretty good and getting better all the time for top connections; stepping up significantly after dominating a Grade 3 last time with a figure. LOCAL KNOWLEDGE was impressive winning his only start as a 2yo over a very strong MSW field; he made his return in an ultra-tough allowance against older horses, then moved back in with 3yos and gamely prevailed over a more experienced SOLITUDE DUDE to take the Amsterdam after a long duel; earned his spot.
Ninth Race
1. Fully Subscribed
2. Scottish Lassie
3. Margie’s Intention
FULLY SUBSCRIBED worked her way into racing shape off the long layoff at the end of last year to post a pair of dominant graded stakes wins going this distance; ran well in both Grade 1 attempts so far this year, the first when having the slightly tougher trip at Churchill before settling for second, followed by the no-chance run behind Nitrogen in the Phipps; fires a good one to close down a loose SCOTTISH LASSIE in the Shuvee; going to be tough right back over a distance she loves. SCOTTISH LASSIE had no apparent excuse after running to a clear stretch lead in the Shuvee, though she still approached her career top figure in that race; capable of an effort that would make her hard to beat, though she does project to have company up front once again. MARGIE’S INTENTION will be hoping that a competitive pace develops, though she can get a piece of this anyway; matched her Beyer top off the layoff, and she was an easy winner over a weaker field last time.
Tenth Race
1. Naomis
2. Deep Learning
3. Queen of Hawaii
NAOMIS finished off her short 2yo campaign with an impressive maiden win; she disappointed in her 3yo debut, but has improved noticeably to win a pair of stakes since then going shorter; appears to have landed in a good spot as she makes her stateside debut for Chad Brown. DEEP LEARNING was impressive winning her career debut here as a 2yo; she endured a difficult trip when shipped to Canada to try a Grade 1 out of that race, then ran well in two stakes races back in NY, including a win in the Chelsey Flower; good try in her 3yo debut when only second-best to a progressive, and more tactical, winner; threat right back with plenty of room to improve. QUEEN OF HAWAII was a Group 3 winner in Ireland as a 2yo, before shipping over for the Breeders’ Cup; parlayed a good trip into a solid win over older horses in her 3yo debut; draws perfectly on the rail once again.
Eleventh Race
1. Book’em Danno
2. Hymn
3. Senior Officer
BOOK’EM DANNO ran the table for older dirt sprinters here last summer; came right back with an impressive score in the True North off the bench, then made short work of overmatched rivals at his Monmouth homebase prepping for this; the clear horse to beat. HYMN was gelded after a ninth consecutive loss on March 1, and he improved immediately when entered back just over a month later to win with a new Beyer top; ran even better in his next two starts, then finished a determined second in a Grade 2 here last month; going good now, and he can handle the extra furlong. SENIOR OFFICER gets a stiff test for class in this spot, at least from BOOK’EM DANNO, though he has earned the chance to step up with four wins from six career starts, including two in a row over this track; keeps improving, and he overcame some trouble to down a talented rival in TIP TOP THOMAS last time.
Twelfth Race
1. Echo Sound
2. Ways and Means
3. Kilwin
ECHO SOUND has her work cut out for her in a highly competitive Ballerina. She did rank among the top 3yo filly sprinters last year after a fast win in the Victory Ride on this track, and her effort in the Test was fine despite losing as the favorite, as that race fell apart late; looked good winning easily in her 4yo debut; steps back up at a price. WAYS AND MEANS can be had, but her top effort is going to make her hard to beat in this race – and any stakes race for filly and mare sprinters going forward; threw it down with a fast horse before narrowly prevailing in that last one, and she has wisely been given plenty of time off to recover; loves this track; the one to beat, but this is no layup. KILWIN rallied to win the Test as a 3yo from last-to-first, though she gets extra credit for overcoming a bad stumble at the start of that race; remained undefeated on dirt when handily scoring off the layoff; likely haven’t seen her best race yet, though she will need it in this spot.
Thirteenth Race
1. The Puma
2. Sea Strike
3. Golden Tempo
THE PUMA was one of the more fancied 3yo colts earlier this year after his Tampa Bay Derby win, which he followed up with a 100 Beyer-near-miss in the Florida Derby; he didn’t make it to Kentucky, and was just starting back in the Haskell last month, where he might not have loved the sloppy conditions; can easily take the next step at a fair price. SEA STRIKE flashed real ability to win his debut despite apparent greenness, then had a valid excuse in his second start when always out of position in a strongly run allowance against older rivals; had to prove he could go long in the Curlin, and prove it he did while burying that field with a 105 Beyer that makes him fastest in this field; facing much tougher in the Travers, though appears to be at least as talented as anyone in this field. GOLDEN TEMPO used his superior stamina to win the Derby and Belmont over RENEGADE and everyone else going this distance; leads this division right now, though he is no faster than anyone else, and might be more trip-dependent.
Fourteenth Race
1. That’s How We Love
2. Alone Time
3. Tax Holiday
THAT’S HOW WE LOVE got a bit overlooked in her debut at Monmouth, but she impressed winning that race with a figure; looks tough right back. ALONE TIME powered along on the lead to dominate maidens in her second career start; has run in three stakes races since, and while she disappointed in a Grade 2 at Keeneland in April, she had excuses in the other two; would like to see an aggressive ride as she steps back into her available condition. TAX HOLIDAY had trouble in the debut, then came right back to win her next start; tried a Grade 2 last time to no avail; well-bred filly has much to prove still, but this is a better spot.
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