Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, August 28, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams on 7+ game winning streaks playing against an intraleague opponent with a win percentage within 10% of them have gone 65-23 SU (+29.63 units, ROI: 33.7%) when priced in the -350 to +100 line range since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-130 vs KC)
Trend: Over the total is 28-9 (+18.25 units) in Luis Castillo’s last 37 road starts
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-MIN (o/u at 9)
Since the start of the 2023 regular season, teams on two-game winning streaks but with worse SM Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 805-902 for -102.68 units (ROI: -6%).
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+101 vs BAL)
Trend: Under the total is 37-18-3 (+16.85 units) when starter Casey Mize is a plus-money underdog in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-TB (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are back over the profitability line at 199-152 for +8.56 units and an ROI of +2.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-114 at STL), SAN FRANCISCO (+107 vs AZ), SAN DIEGO (+120 at TB), LA ANGELS (+116 vs PHI)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go-against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 78-121 for -46.99 units and an ROI of -23.6%! Fading these teams continues to produce, and this has been our most consistent angle this season.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+114 at MIN)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 133-196 start for -23.43 after losing about 33 units over the last ten weeks. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season, it’s usual territory.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+137 vs MIA)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 41-21 but for -10.8 units so far.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ATLANTA (-218 vs COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 33-21 start for -15.8 units, and an ROI of -29.3%!
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-218 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 275-327 for -16.03 units, but it has taken a huge step on the road to recovery since the ASB by going 84-80, +18.16 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+107 vs AZ), BOSTON (+138 at NYY), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+114 at MIN), SAN DIEGO (+120 at TB), LA ANGELS (+116 vs PHI)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 230-152 for +50.41 units, an ROI of +13.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-114 at STL), BALTIMORE (-108 at ATH)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 157-206 start for -42.98 units (ROI -11.8%).
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+101 vs BAL)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 527-421 for +44.88 units and an ROI of 4.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-130 vs KC), ATLANTA (-218 vs COL)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -106 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 258-193 for +23.27 units and an ROI of 5.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-114 at STL), PHILADELPHIA (-124 at LAA), BALTIMORE (-108 at ATH)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -106 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 454-391 but for -96.78 units and an ROI of -11.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-129 vs SD), CLEVELAND (-130 vs KC), MILWAUKEE (-180 vs TEX), MINNESOTA (-123 vs CWS)
*WATCH FOR CHICAGO CUBS vs CIN (-181 CURRENTLY)*
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 470-419 record for +44.17 units and an ROI of 5% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+168 at CHC), KANSAS CITY (+121 at CLE), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+114 at MIN), PHILADELPHIA (-124 at LAA)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2210-2090 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -272.81 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+168 at CHC), KANSAS CITY (+121 at CLE), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+114 at MIN)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2277-2859 (44.3%) for -265.03 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (+138 at NYY), SEATTLE (+138 at TOR), PITTSBURGH (-114 at STL), COLORADO (+201 at ATL), LA DODGERS (-182 at DET), ARIZONA (-115 at SF)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 678-567 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +19.30 units, for an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+169 vs LAD), LA ANGELS (+116 vs PHI)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 362-319 (53.2%) for +26.43 units and an ROI of 3.9% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-148 vs SEA)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 335-342 run (+16.79 units, ROI: 2.5%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA ANGELS (+116 vs PHI)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 219-166 (+28.70 units, ROI: 7.5%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-130 vs KC)
Winning Streak Betting System #11:
Teams on 7+ game winning streaks playing against an intraleague opponent with a win percentage within 10% of them have gone 65-23 SU (+29.63 units, ROI: 33.7%) when priced in the -350 to +100 line range since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-130 vs KC)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 566-553 for +23.26 units, good for +2.1% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: LA ANGELS +116 (+25 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: BALTIMORE -108 (+45 diff), CLEVELAND -130 (+18), MILWAUKEE -180 (+18), TORONTO -148 (+13), MINNESOTA -123 (+10)
Theoretically, the best “edges” come up when a score projection comes up with a full 1.0 run edge on either the Over or Under. On Over projections so far, when the simulation shows at least a 1.0 run edge, Overs are 20-12-2 for +5.98 units and an ROI of 18.7%.
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (1.0 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: PIT-STL OVER 7.5 (+1.1)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) CINCINNATI (63-71) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (76-58)
Trend: CIN is 31-48 (-9.70 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+168 at CHC)
(953) MIAMI (68-66) at (954) WASHINGTON (63-73)
Trend: MIA is 10-25 (-20.73 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-1.5 at WSH)
Trend: Over the total is 38-26-3 (+9.40 units) in WSH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-WSH (o/u at 8.5)
(955) COLORADO (52-82) at (956) ATLANTA (79-55)
Trend: ATL is 6-11 (-12.66 units) versus non-divisional teams with a losing record with starter Grant Holmes since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-218 vs COL)
(957) PITTSBURGH (65-70) at (958) ST LOUIS (67-68)
Trend: PIT is 13-29 (-21.53 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-114 at STL)
(961) BOSTON (73-60) at (962) NEW YORK-AL (75-58)
Trend: Under the total is 63-43-5 (+15.70 units) when NYY is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-NYY (o/u at 7)
(963) SEATTLE (64-70) at (964) TORONTO (65-70)
Trend: SEA is 24-42 (-19.31 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+1.5 at TOR)
(965) KANSAS CITY (60-75) at (966) CLEVELAND (68-66)
Trend: CLE is 35-22 (+11.27 units) in the -135 to +110 line range with starter Tanner Bibee the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-130 vs KC)
(967) CHICAGO-AL (70-63) at (968) MINNESOTA (64-70)
Trend: Over the total is 28-9 (+18.25 units) in Luis Castillo’s last 37 road starts
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CWS-MIN (o/u at 9)
Trend: Luis Castillo’s teams are 5-16 (-10.85 units) when he starts as a shorter road underdog (-105 to +120) in the last 6+ seasons
Trend: Dean Kremer’s teams are 38-19 (+14.59 units) in his last 57 home starts
Trends Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-123 vs CWS)
(969) BALTIMORE (65-69) at (970) ATHLETICS (53-81)
Trend: BAL is 17-5 (+13.16 units) with starter Brandon Young since the start of the 2026 season
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-108 at ATH)
Trend: Over the total is 39-24-3 (+12.60 units) in ATH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BAL-ATH (o/u at 9.5)
(971) LOS ANGELES-NL (80-54) at (972) DETROIT (62-71)
Trend: Tarik Skubal’s teams are 29-13 (+6.86 units) in his last 42 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-182 at DET)
(973) HOUSTON (67-67) at (974) NEW YORK-NL (60-74)
Trend: NYM is 9-3 (+5.57 units) at home with starter Christian Scott in his career
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-102 vs HOU)
(975) SAN DIEGO (72-62) at (976) TAMPA BAY (79-54)
Trend: Under the total is 37-18-3 (+16.85 units) when starter Casey Mize is a plus-money underdogs in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-TB (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: TB is 9-1 (+7.35 units) at home versus NL opponents with starter Shane McClanahan since the start of the 2021 season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-129 vs SD)
(979) PHILADELPHIA (74-60) at (980) LOS ANGELES-AL (52-82)
Trend: PHI is 24-40 (-18.80 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at LAA)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #1: Seattle at Toronto, Fri 8/28-Sun 8/30
Trend: Road teams are on a 13-7 (65%, +7.52 units) surge in the SEA-TOR series
– The ROI on this trend is 37.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+138 at TOR)
Series #21: Colorado at Atlanta, Fri 8/28-Sun 8/30
Trend: ATLANTA has won 23 of their last 29 games against Colorado (79.3%, +6.87 units)
– The ROI on this trend is 23.7%
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-218 vs COL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-148 vs BOS), MILWAUKEE (-180 vs TEX)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): SEATTLE (+138 at TOR), ST LOUIS (+106 vs PIT)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1,074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-182 at DET), TAMPA BAY (-129 vs SD), HOUSTON (-105 at NYM), MILWAUKEE (-180 vs TEX), PHILADELPHIA (-124 at LAA)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Monday, August 31)
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