Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Saturday, August 8 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 5.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Pretty Boy Miah (5th race)
Fifth Race
1. Pretty Boy Miah
2. Tagermeen
3. Fact
PRETTY BOY MIAH progressed up to the maiden win when blinkers were added, then won his next start even more impressively with a 92 Beyer, which led his connections to try him in the Preakness; was stuck challenging the pace from the outside on a day when the rail was the place to be last time; like him turning back for this. TAGERMEEN disappointed at short prices over and over as a 2yo, though those races all look pretty good in retrospect when considering who he was facing; finally broke through last time when pressing the pace from the start, before drawing clear readily over a wet track; expensive colt just takes the next logical step. FACT exits the same race as the top one, where he was also stuck on the outside, though he was never able to get involved as the favorite; owns competitive figures, and turning back could work for him, as well.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other thirteen races on Saturday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Coach Pope
2. Gorillaz
3. U. S. S. Valor
Opener on Whitney Day is the first of two divisions of 6.5-furlong sprints for MSW juveniles, and none of the nine entered have a prior start to evaluate. Have liked some of the works from COACH POPE, who is by Tapit, and from a dam who went 10- for 21 and was a multiple graded stakes winner after scoring in her debut, though she was best on synthetic; McPeek doesn’t get enough credit for the work he does with 2yos. GORILLAZ is a half-brother to leading older horse Magnitude, who headlines the feature on today’s card; well-bred colt has been training strongly up to this, and there has been some buzz about him on the way here; expecting a good showing for Gargan – 2yo, first-time starter, dirt sprint, Saratoga: 6 for his last 25, 24%, $2.58 ROI. U. S. S. VALOR is a Team Valor homebred making his debut for Shug, and he also has a serious line-up of works showing; he is a half-brother to four winners, including Grade 1-placed Expressman, who was a debut winner at Saratoga with a 107 Beyer a few summers ago.
Second Race
1. Stone Aged
2. Implied Open
3. Iron Confessor
The second division has ten signed on, only one with a prior start, and that came on the grass. STONE AGED looked very good breezing 21.2 prior to being purchased by Juddmonte for $450k in April, and he has continued to train forwardly since; he is a half to major Group1 turf winner Air Force Blue, but also has a full-sister that is currently 2 for 2 on dirt, beginning with a debut win and a 74 Beyer going 6.5 furlongs; this is also the female family of the great 2yo Flanders. IMPLIED OPEN is by 17% juvenile debut sire Instilled Regard; his dam won on debut and earned her top career Beyer Speed Figure of 97 winning at Saratoga; Walden is a going concern with all kinds of horses, and this homebred is in from Kentucky with purposeful works showing. IRON CONFESSOR is by Hopeful winner Basin, and from the female family of Test winner Victory Ride; he has been outworking his company in the morning, and Prat takes the call.
Third Race
1. Bramito
2. Yo Daddy
3. Vibe
BRAMITO ran the two fastest races of his career while going back-to-back in the spring, before getting a freshening; returned last month with an underrated effort when wide and chasing a very fast pace in a race that fell apart late going a mile; has won going this distance in the past, and he loves Saratoga. YO DADDY returned from the layoff in excellent form earlier this year; he failed to fire when shipped out of town two back, then got in a bit too tough in a Grade 2 last time – though he didn’t run poorly at all in that spot while chasing wide before getting tired in the stretch; better fit here, though he is not an easy horse to ride and will need to work out the right trip. VIBE impressed winning three in a row around a long layoff, though all of those races were one-turn miles; looked overmatched in that fast-paced Grade 1 last time; has regrouped since, and he is bred to handle this added distance; talented colt can easily get back on track.
Fourth Race
1. Scratch It
2. Hand Over Heart
3. Sail With the Wind
SCRATCH IT was more game than anything else while winning her debut here as a 2yo; she hit the board in a pair of stakes immediately after, though she never looked like winning either of those races; she was very well-spotted back on turf two back, but that was a visually impressive win, and she had early trouble, before getting eliminated by a spill coming to the stretch when back up in class last time; might be set for a forward move. HAND OVER HEART stayed on at one pace and gradually took over to win her debut on dirt; sat a wider trip but seemed to have every chance to win that last one, before failing to catch the leaders in the late stages; has a lot of turf in her pedigree, and this race didn’t come up nearly as tough as it could have. SAIL WITH THE WIND has been competitive right along since switching to turf last May; finally got through her N1X state-bred condition at the end of the year, then jumped up with a big figure improvement winning off the layoff; out of NY-bred conditions now, but she looks like a solid fit here.
Sixth Race
1. Aerial Affair
2. Joy of Life
3. Dulce Vita
AERIAL AFFAIR is well-bred, and she got bet in her debut, where she failed to break sharply from the gate and had to recover position early; she made a nice run around the turn in that spot, but was up against a well-meant winner, whom she could only chase to no avail before tiring; can easily build on that one as she faces a field full of firsters. JOY OF LIFE is by new sire Speaker’s Corner (2 for 14 with first-time starters so far, one stakes winner already); the dam was a debut winner, and this is the female family of champion 2yo Vindication; has looked good training up to this for Mott. DULCE VITA is by hot new sire Life Is Good (8 for 23 with first-time starters as of this writing); this is a strong female family that includes major Grade 1 winners Cross Traffic and Stop Traffic (second dam); Thirteen Arrows was a stakes winner sprinting on dirt herself, and this filly has two siblings that were debut winners; plenty to hold on to.
Seventh Race
1. Iron Sight
2. Fort Thomas
3. Il Siciliano
IRON SIGHT raced very greenly in the debut on dirt; had the first turf attempt rained off, then broke poorly and took a hard bump while rallying in the stretch when he finally got to the grass here last summer; was first back from a long layoff when staying gamely to break his maiden last time; stretches out again with plenty of stamina in his pedigree. FORT THOMAS was a reliable closer going long on turf last year, and in his first couple of starts as a 5yo; picked the wrong race to try to change up tactics last time, as that pace was solid for the distance and he paid the price; hard to take on top at 1 for 20 on the grass, but he tends to show up, and might have some different trip options open to him now. IL SICILIANO has faced stakes company in his last four starts to no avail; he ran two of the best races of his career on this turf course last summer before stepping up in class, though he is also a deep closer, and he is still a maiden after fifteen starts on the grass; tries again.
Eighth Race
1. Surety
2. And the Runner Is
3. Port in a Storm
SURETY finished behind two of these same rivals in the debut last month, though he looked green throughout the running of that race, particularly in the stretch when he appeared to shy away from horses after taking aim on the leaders; should be more clued in this time, and he was tactical in that first one. AND THE RUNNER IS sat a comfortable trip away from the pace, then put in a good finish for second when going by both SURETY and Berta’s Stitch in the stretch; well-bred colt figures tough right back with Irad sticking, but he drew the outside post once again. PORT IN A STORM is a half-brother to Shug’s turf millionaire Limited Liability (debut winner as a 2yo at Saratoga); this is a female family full of quality runners, and one that this trainer knows very well; likely ready to go for Shug – 2yo, first-time starter, turf, route, Saratoga: 4 for his last 12, $7.04 ROI.
Ninth Race
1. Movie Night
2. Percy’s Bar
3. Explora
MOVIE NIGHT made eye-catching runs in each of her first two starts over wet tracks, particularly the maiden win when dropping to the inside around the turn to speed after the leaders, then popping back outside to run them over in the stretch; sat handily and crushed allowance rivals in fast time when getting fast dirt for the first time; steps up. PERCY’S BAR has finished first in two Grade 1 races going long, so stretching her out was certainly the right thing to do, but she gives off the impression that she will love turning back for this; not sure about the addition of blinkers, but she still has a chance to be a top sprinter if she isn’t over the top now. EXPLORA has won stakes easily the last two times she was turned back to go seven furlongs, though she wasn’t facing fields as tough as this one either time; wasn’t forced to work hard up front when denying ON TIME GIRL last time, though she is versatile enough to run her race without the lead; not sure how short a price she should be, but she’s good.
Tenth Race
1. Capitol Hill
2. Rhetorical
3. Lagynos
CAPITOL HILL lands in the toughest race of his career, though he might finally get some pace to close into in this spot, after trying to rally into blistering final fractions in each of his last two starts; he just missed getting up anyway two back, and he ran a lot better than it looks last time when wide off a rated pace, before gaining ground into a 22-flat final quarter; giving him one more chance at a price. RHETORICAL has been on the lead in his last two starts going longer, and he can run that way, as evidenced by his Grade 1 win and 107 Beyer on Derby Day; he is also very comfortable racing behind horses, and the mile might be his best distance; draws a perfect post while cutting back. LAGYNOS has been razor-sharp for Asmussen as a 5yo, and he, too, might be at his absolute best going a mile; ships up to a course he has run well over previously, looking for six in a row.
Eleventh Race
1. Pacific Avenue
2. Bottas
3. West End Kid
PACIFIC AVENUE came over to run in the Belmont Derby, and to say things did not go well for him in that race would be an understatement; he was never in a comfortable position in that race after winding up last early, yet he still managed to put in a strong finish after swinging wide to only be beaten by about a length; Appleby will swap cheek pieces for blinkers, and he also switches to Irad for this. BOTTAS looked good winning his first two starts last summer, then had little chance at the Breeders’ Cup when too far away early, and then caught behind horses late; think he’s run better than it looks in both starts so far this year, but he also needs a better trip; might prove best going shorter than this, but he deserves another chance. WEST END KID has a powerful combination of handy speed and finishing power, and he was just going from strength to strength while winning three in a row on the way to the Belmont Derby; it took him too long to get untracked that day, and he surged late to just miss catching TITLE ROLE on the wire; think added distance is fine; Walden adds blinkers and switches to Prat.
Twelfth Race
1. Antiquarian
2. Magnitude
3. Baeza
ANTIQUARIAN has run well over a variety of different distances throughout his career; his defining win came in last year’s JCGC (a race where he ran very well, but his main competition had trouble), though he is likely best somewhere between eight and nine furlongs; think all three of his starts this year might be as good as anything he did previously, as he got the wrong ride (in retrospect) in the Met Mile, then had all kinds of trouble when stretched back out last time; in tough here, but he has talent, and he should be a fair price against this crew. MAGNITUDE is very much the one to beat in the Whitney while seeking to cement his status as the top handicap horse in the country; he just keeps getting better, and his speed plays from the rail; takes a ton of beating. BAEZA hinted at this kind of ability as a 3yo while not quite up to the level of SOVEREIGNTY through the summer; he handled a different version of MAGNITUDE last September, and actually ran very well behind that rival last time after missing the break; has gate issues to clean up if he’s going to turn the tables, but he has the talent to do it.
Thirteenth Race
1. Helen’s Revenge
2. Miss Elle
3. Will Not Be Swayed
HELEN’S REVENGE won five in a row sprinting over fast dirt after being brought back from a layoff last October; ran well again last time when finishing gamely into a poor setup; projects to have some pace in front of her here. MISS ELLE sat tactical trips to go back-to-back in Kentucky late last year, then tried some tougher competition to no avail before getting a break; looks like a good fit here as she makes her second start off the layoff. WILL NOT BE SWAYED also finishes well from off the pace; turns back for this after failing to get early position out of the chute last time; can factor for an underrated trainer.
Fourteenth Race
1. Miztertonic
2. Stark
3. Complex Agenda
MIZTERTONIC had run well every time he was stretched out in distance prior to that last one, and he had a no-chance trip in that spot; rates another chance with Castellano returning. STARK was green in the debut when defeated by one of these same rivals, though he did appear to figure things out late in that race; was more professional and stayed gamely to close down maidens last time when given more distance to work with; plenty of upside. COMPLEX AGENDA faced difficult pace scenarios in both starts when switched back to turf this year; went long last time, but was still forced to go too fast early in that spot; threat if he can pull a more comfortable trip up front.
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