The 2026 record now sits at 92–50–6.
This week the UFC returns to the APEX for Vegas 120. A thin card with limited data for the model.
Dave Ross, Kyle Anthony, and I broke down the full card on this week’s First Strike, give it a watch/listen HERE before you finalize your card. First Strike has it’s own dedicated YouTube page, so make sure to go and subscribe today!
Let’s dig into the numbers.
Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo
This one isn’t going to win any awards for aesthetics. Two fighters on two-fight losing streaks, both with losing UFC records, and a matchup that exists more as a crossroads fight than a contender bout. But the numbers still tell us something, even when what they’re saying isn’t particularly exciting.
Diego Ferreira was last seen in September of 2025, knocked out by Alexander Hernandez. He’s 2–2 in his last four and 41 years old entering Saturday. Billy Quarantillo’s most recent outing was a TKO loss to the legendary Cub Swanson back in December of 2024. He’s 1–3 in his last four and sits at 37 years old, making this move from featherweight up to lightweight at the same time.
Age on both sides, a weight class jump for one, and losing records in the promotion for both. Not exactly a compelling betting landscape.
Ferreira holds a four-inch reach advantage at 74 inches. The xR% numbers are equally uninspiring. 54% for Ferreira and 52% for Quarantillo. Both are treading water in the metrics, reflecting careers that have been competitive without being dominant at this level.
The striking profiles actually show some interesting contrast. Ferreira lands 4.70 significant strikes per minute with a +1.24 differential, absorbing 3.46 per minute. Reasonably clean for a fighter at this stage of his career. Quarantillo brings significantly more volume at 7.04 significant strikes per minute with a +1.17 differential, but the absorption rate is a concern. He’s eating 5.87 significant strikes per minute in those exchanges. That is a number that catches up with a chin over time, and both men have had their chins tested. Ferreira knocked down four times, Quarantillo three.
The grappling gives Quarantillo a modest edge. He holds a 50% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges, has scored 13 takedowns at 25% accuracy, and averages 4.48 attempts per five minutes. Ferreira counters with a 33% control rate and only nine takedowns at 30% accuracy. Neither man is a dominant grappler, but Quarantillo is at least the more active one in that department.
Running it through the model, the output lands on Ferreira at a razor-thin 53% win probability. A true coin flip on the surface. And the confidence level produces a Tier 5 trap favorite label. At –170 on the moneyline, the model is telling us to stay away, and we’re going to listen.
A 41-year-old on a losing streak with ugly numbers on both sides of the matchup isn’t the spot to be laying a price. It’s a ‘dog or pass situation for me.
Mateusz Gamrot vs Quillan Salkilld
Before we get into the numbers, the caveat needs to be front and center.
Quillan Salkilld is 5–0 in the UFC with a 12-fight professional win streak. But virtually all of those fights have ended in the first round. Outside of one decision, every single one of his bouts in the UFC have concluded in round one. Which means his actual UFC cage time doesn’t add up to three full fights worth of data. The 94% xR% he carries is a product of absolute dominance in a small, fast sample. We run it because five UFC fights is a workable number and the card is thin, but that context needs to stay on the table throughout this breakdown.
With that said, the data we do have is genuinely impressive.
Mateusz Gamrot enters on a strong stretch, 5–2 since 2023, most recently submitting Esteban Ribovics in April. He’s one of the more complete lightweights on the roster and has only been stopped once in his entire MMA career, a submission loss to Charles Oliveira. No shame there.
The physical edge goes to Salkilld. Nine years younger at 26 and five inches of reach at 75 inches. Youth, size, and a 12 fight win streak make for a compelling challenger.
Gamrot holds a solid 72% xR%. A number built over a meaningful sample against genuine competition. Salkilld’s 94% is eye-catching but comes with the sample size asterisk attached.
The striking favors Salkilld clearly. Gamrot lands 3.21 significant strikes per minute with a +0.41 differential, absorbing only 2.81 per minute. He’s tough to hit and doesn’t give much back, but the output is modest. Salkilld lands 4.77 per minute with a +2.51 differential, absorbing just 2.26 per minute. He’s more active, more efficient, and has scored three knockdowns without ever being knocked down himself. Gamrot, by contrast, has been dropped five times in the UFC. A number worth watching against a fighter with Salkilld’s power profile.
The ground game is where Gamrot makes his case most loudly. He holds an 86% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges, has scored 54 takedowns across his UFC career at 39% accuracy, and averages 7.26 takedown attempts per five minutes. That is a relentless, suffocating grappling presence. If Gamrot gets this fight to the mat consistently, he can neutralize Salkilld’s striking advantage and work through rounds on his own terms.
Salkilld isn’t without ground tools though. He’s scored 10 takedowns in just five UFC fights at 31% accuracy and holds a 59% control rate. His 75% takedown defense is respectable but will face a serious test against this volume of attempts. Gamrot defends at 83%, making it equally difficult for Salkilld to dictate the ground game in return.
Running it through the model, the output lands on Salkilld. Quillan Salkilld receives a 72% win probability and a Tier 1 Favorite designation. His current odds of –140 imply roughly 58%, and that gap between the model’s output and the market price is the kind of edge we act on.
The model sees the path clearly. Salkilld’s striking output, defensive efficiency, and youth give him real advantages even against a grappling-heavy opponent like Gamrot. Whether Gamrot can drag this into deep water and grind it out over five rounds is the central question, and it’s a legitimate one. But the numbers say Salkilld is the right side, and at –140 that’s a price worth backing.
Quillan Salkilld goes on the slip at –140.
Check out FightingWithNumbers.com for the full model tale of the tapes, grades, and reports on the fights this weekend.
Good luck Saturday. Enjoy the violence.
