Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Saturday, September 5 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 3.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Highlands Way (3rd race)
Third Race
1. Highlands Way
2. Thirteen Colonies
3. Favorable Scenario
HIGHLANDS WAY was impressive, winning his first two starts off the bench with big late runs from off the pace; came running once again in that last one, only to run out of time behind heavily favored Risk Tolerance; going good now. THIRTEEN COLONIES didn’t make an especially good appearance pre-race when returned from the layoff early in the meet, and he failed to fire in that race after sitting a ground-saving trip; better than that, and he might have another good trip coming here. FAVORABLE SCENARIO has finished second in three straight turf starts, including his first two as a 6yo at Saratoga; failed as the favorite last time when finishing clear of THIRTEEN COLONIES; adds blinkers to try again.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other eleven races on Saturday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. U. S. S. Valor
2. Credit
3. Mystrix
U. S. S. VALOR debuted in the faster division of 2yo male MSW sprints on Whitney Day, where he finished gamely to be a close third with an 88 Beyer that comes in well above par for this kind of race; expecting him to be tough right back, CREDIT has to get a tough distance for a 2yo firster, but he has been training well up to this for Pletcher; Curlin homebred has a lot of turf up close in his pedigree, though this is also the female family of Bemont Stakes winners Rags to Riches and Jazil. MYSTRIX and IMPLIED OPEN were narrowly defeated in the slower division of those Whitney Day MSW heats. MYSTRIX cut the pace in that spot, while IMPLIED OPEN wound up in a bit tight between horses in the late stages.
Second Race
1. Liam’s Law
2. High Official
3. Bold Leadership
LIAM’S LAW ran an underrated race in his career debut, which came in a short sprint that was rained off the grass; got to the turf and stretched out in distance for his second start, where he took pressure on the lead from the start before gamely prevailing; there doesn’t appear to be much early speed in this race. HIGH OFFICIAL finished strongly into a good pace to win his career debut impressively; well-bred colt appears to have some talent, and he is Prat’s choice over the top one. BOLD LEADERSHIP completes the Pletcher stranglehold on this race. BOLD LEADERSHIP didn’t win his debut earlier in the meet, though he ran quite well in that spot to nearly overcome a wide trip; not surprised his connections are willing to bypass another MSW start to give him a chance here.
Fourth Race
1. Three B’s
2. Party in the Army
3. Bold Fortune
THREE B’S was impressive clearing his first-level allowance condition in January; has achieved mixed results since then, though with viable excuses for the seemingly poor efforts – wide against a strong rail in the February start, didn’t seem to handle the sloppy track in April; turf to dirt with Lezcano returning. PARTY IN THE ARMY cleaned up his gate issues through racing and used his speed to win back-to-back races last winter before the layoff; improved again when finishing a game third in the Mike Lee in his first start back; dueled and weakened in his first attempt in this condition and first against older horses last time; still has room to improve. BOLD FORTUNE hasn’t been seen since getting caught dueling a fast pace in a $500k race as a juvenile way back in December of 2024; he was impressive winning his prior two starts with fast figures; wildcard making his first start back.
Fifth Race
1. Christopher Vedder
2. Aerial Affair
3. Joy of Life
CHRISTOPHER VEDDER raced greenly after getting outpaced from the gate and wound up wide when checking in a no-threat fourth behind a much more well-fancied winning stablemate in her debut going shorter; can benefit from that experience for a trainer having an excellent meet with his 2yos. AERIAL AFFAIR had to recover early position after breaking slowly in her debut, after which she continued on gamely ahead of the top one in a useful effort; she has already had the opportunity to build on that start, and she took a nice step forward last time when put on the lead in a race won by the impressive Summer Starlet; looks like the one to beat. JOY OF LIFE also had no chance with Summer Starlet when finishing behind AERIAL AFFAIR in her first appearance last month; filly from the female family of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Vindication gets a bit more distance to work with.
Sixth Race
1. Reasoned Analysis
2. Doc Sullivan
3. Tuscan Sky
REASONED ANALYSIS was a stakes winner as a 3yo, then improved to a new Beyer top when making it 2 for 2 going a mile in his final start before enduring a long layoff last April; likely needed that first start back when making a stretch lead, only to get caught by a pair of closers; wound up battling on the lead before just missing to Tuscan Sky last time; one more chance. DOC SULLIVAN returned from a freshening to make his first start for this trainer in a NY-bred stakes pace a month ago, and he looked as good as ever in that spot while rallying from last at the top of the stretch to finish a good second; needs a better trip than that, but the mile is a good distance for him. TUSCAN SKY was likely prepping in that late-running effort sprinting off the layoff; got stuck dueling in that closer’s race two back, then sat off the pace before narrowly prevailing over REASONED ANALYSIS last time; logical right back.
Seventh Race
1. True Essence
2. Pops Novo
3. Pharocity
TRUE ESSENCE debuted in a short sprint in Kentucky with blinkers on. He was outpaced from the start of that race, which was won on the lead, but he gradually gathered momentum along the rail and put in a solid finish to get up for second, before galloping out well in front of that field; well-bred colt has the pedigree to get better with time and distance. POPS NOVO is a $1.35 million son of new sire Corniche (4 for 22 with first-time starters so far); the dam was a graded stakes winner on all three surfaces and earned the top figure of her career winning a Grade 2 sprinting on dirt; has been keeping company with Beckman’s impressive first-out winner Club Reign (73 Beyer) leading up to this. Homebred PHAROCITY lacks a flashy pedigree, though he appears to be well-prepared to go this demanding distance with seven five-furlong breezes showing dating back to the end of June, including a couple of bullets from the gate.
Eighth Race
1. Pass On By
2. Artemis Two
3. Related Party
PASS ON BY flashed brief speed before fading when making his career debut in a short sprint on dirt; bred for turf and distance; stretches right out while making the surface switch, and breaks from a perfect post. ARTEMIS TWO ships up from Kentucky to debut for Bard Cox – 2yo, first-time starter, turf, route, Saratoga: 5 for his last 7, 71%, $12.69 ROI; dam was a two-time turf winner in her native South Africa, and her only other foal is a turf route winner for Cox. RELATED PARTY gained valuable experience when gradually gaining ground to finish third in his debut over course and distance 20 days ago after breaking from the outside post; gets a better draw for top connections.
Ninth Race
1. Ortley Avenue
2. Brightline Bullet
3. Imagine John
ORTLEY AVENUE finished second vs stakes horses in his first two turf starts as a 3yo, then dueled a quick pace in his final start before missing time; was first back from that long break last month when cutting the pace and lasting for second ahead of three of these same rivals with a new top figure; still has some room to improve, and he should be tighter for this. BRIGHTLINE BULLET was making his turf debut when just failing to catch ORTLEY AVENUE for second in that common race here four weeks ago; proved that he can handle the surface, just needs a cleaner trip. IMAGINE JOHN has been racing in good form on dirt recently without winning; sire gets 14% winners in turf sprints, and this dam was a turf sprint winner in her career; threat if he can transfer his form over to the grass.
Tenth Race
1. Lion of Justice
2. Preside
3. Annexperience
LION OF JUSTICE ran away from maidens to win his debut with a 92 Beyer going a mile early last year; he only managed one additional start as a 3yo, where he just missed running down a wire-to-wire winner through the short stretch at Keeneland; stretching back out to make his second start back after a sprint prep. PRESIDE has earned two of the top figures in this field since getting stretched out in distance; both of those efforts came over wet tracks, though he handled fast dirt just fine in his career debut, where he had a bit of a trip; steps right up, and he can easily be this good. ANNEXPERIENCE tried a marathon distance last time to no avail; suppose he still has something to prove as a dirt horse, though his wins in his first two starts on the surface (also over wet tracks) were fast blowouts; dangerous speed cutting back in a more reasonable spot.
Eleventh Race
1. Angel of Kirk
2. Summer Starlet
3. Life Changing
ANGEL OF KIRK made her debut early in the meet, where she got bet hard and then easily handled a field full of first-time starters with an impressive burst of speed to take charge around the turn; draws outside for the step up in class. SUMMER STARLET was rated off the pace and kept to the outside from the start of her debut, which was contested over an elongated sprint distance; she always looked like she was going to run despite being let go at a price, and she dominated that field in the stretch with a big finish; well-developed filly is going to be tough right back. LIFE CHANGING flashed easy speed to clear the field from the outside, then never gave her nine rivals a chance when running away to a seven-length win with an 84 Beyer in her career debut; well-bred filly breaks from the outside again.
Twelfth Race
1. Salt Princess
2. Ori
3. Griselda
SALT PRINCESS was right there at the wire in her first two turf starts last year, then picked up a well-deserved maiden win before the layoff; she was in too tough in her second start back this year, then had no chance when racing behind a soft pace when dropped to this level last time; one more chance. ORI was a maiden winner here two summers ago before venturing into stakes company; only made one start as a 4yo before going right back to the sidelines; makes her third start of 2026 after being forced to chase a solid pace in that last one when back in the Nevin barn; picks up Prat. GRISELDA put in a good finish from last to win her stateside debut here last summer, then was no match for graded stakes rivals in her next two starts; failed to fire when entered to sprint off the layoff; stretches back out and drops in class.
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