The 2026 tennis season reaches its peak with the 2026 US Open in New York, with the final Grand Slam of the year getting underway at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. The summer hard-court tune-ups are behind us, and now the margin for error disappears as the best players in the world battle across best-of-five and grueling best-of-three tests in the Flushing Meadows heat.
The fortnight always brings unmatched betting value on both tours, offering an early look at physical durability, tactical adjustments, and draw paths that could shape the championship picture. There is no shortage of high-level matchups to break down, and I’ll be delivering daily betting analysis and best bets throughout the tournament.
With that in mind, keep reading for my top tennis picks and best bets for Day 7 of the US Open on Saturday, September 5.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Alexander Blockx vs. Flavio Cobolli
The last time Blockx played against Cobolli, he had the Italian on the ropes. Blockx, who beat Cobolli in Monte Carlo, was serving for the match at 5-3, but he ended up playing a bad service game. That allowed Cobolli back into the match, which completely turned there. However, through two matches between these two, Blockx has looked like the better player. And he now gets Cobolli with a pretty big advantage in the rest department.
While it might be a little early in the tournament to be factoring in time on court, Blockx has played only four hours and 32 minutes of tennis. Meanwhile, Cobolli has played six hours and 55 minutes. That should count for a little something when considering the grueling conditions in New York.
Over the last 52 weeks, TennisViz happens to have Blockx with a Performance Rating of 7.46 in non-Slams, while Cobolli is down at 7.29 in such matches. That’s a slight advantage in something I value quite a bit, even if it does downplay what Cobolli has done at the majors this year. But I’ll also note that Cobolli’s hard-court Elo Rating (1843.8) is lower than Blockx’s 2026 Elo Rating (1881.7), so the Belgian is getting him on the right surface.
I also just feel that Blockx has the most dangerous weapons in this matchup, with his serve — and ability to set up plus-ones with it — being something that can tilt the scales in his favor in key moments.
Bet: Blockx ML (+100)
Michael Zheng vs. Arthur Gea
If I mentioned the time on court for Cobolli, I have to mention it for Gea. The Frenchman played three qualifying matches before this tournament even began, and his first two matches in the main draw have been grueling. Zheng needed three hours and six minutes to beat Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the Round of 128, then he played a physical match against Zachary Svajda that lasted two hours and 30 minutes. With that in mind, Zheng should be getting a slightly fatigued version of Gea, and I would have felt good about the American even if he wasn’t.
Zheng comes into this match with a higher 2026 Elo Rating (1808.6 vs. 1797.3). He’s also a betting favorite despite the fact that Gea is 2-0 against him in previous head-to-head encounters, which usually suggests the oddsmakers are looking to trap casual bettors.
Zheng also has a more complete game than Gea, who wants to win quick points. Well, Zheng has the ability to extend rallies, forcing Gea to do a little more in the point-construction department. In a best-of-five match, I’m just not sure I see Gea doing that. That said, I love Zheng to get into the win column here, and it doesn’t hurt that the fans will be going wild for him.
Bet: Zheng ML (-143)
Alexandra Eala vs. Iva Jovic
It’ll be interesting to see what the split in the crowd looks like for this one. As an 18-year-old American, you’d think Jovic will have most of the fans in her corner, but Eala tends to have the crowd support wherever she plays. And when the crowd is going insane for her, she can be very difficult to beat. However, Jovic destroyed Eala in the two matches they played earlier in the summer. At Roland Garros, we saw the American win 6-4, 6-2, and she followed that up with a 6-2, 6-2 victory at Queen’s Club.
Jovic is just extremely comfortable playing against lefties, as she’s 12-5 against southpaws in her career — and 6-2 against them over the last 52 weeks. Also, Jovic’s ability to redirect pace, and transition from defense to offense, is a huge weapon against Eala. All Eala really knows is flattening out shots and going for winners, but Jovic has enjoyed this matchup because she can track shots down and send them to the open court. Jovic is also a better returner, and her hard-court numbers are significantly better. While Eala is 30-27 on hard courts in main-draw matches at the WTA level, Jovic is 32-17. Jovic also has a higher hold percentage (70.1%) and break percentage (40.0%) in her career on hard courts than Eala does over the last 52 weeks (66.0%, 39.0%), which has been the best stretch of her career.
Bet: Jovic ML (-119)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
