Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Sunday, August 9 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 2.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Democracy Defender (2nd race)
Second Race
1. Democracy Defender
2. Housing Market
3. Pay the Piper
DEMOCRACY DEFENDER made an eye-catching, wide run around the final turn, and ran to the lead in the stretch of his promising debut, only to get caught late by subsequent stakes winner Vasy; he endured less-than-ideal trips in each of his next two starts, then was rated back and could only chase stakes-quality Glavine as he sprinted home in front last time; rates one more chance as he returns from a freshening with Ortiz taking over. HOUSING MARKET looks like a dangerous firster for top connections; the dam won twice in France and is a sister to multiple Grade 1-placed turf horse La Signare; great post and Prat is up. PAY THE PIPER was off slowly when finishing behind DEMOCRACY DEFENDER as they made their respective debuts back in January; he never got to run when derailed by an equipment issue in his next start, then finished gamely into a poor setup in his return from a layoff last time; threat again with blinkers coming off.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other ten races on Sunday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Frolicking
2. Chestnut
3. Poise
Well-bred FROLICKING was a bit wide after breaking from an outside post in her lone start last year, but she had her chance at that race all through the stretch and came away second-best (to a repeat winner) at the end; appears to be training well up to her 3yo debut for Cox – past five years, 180+ day layoff, dirt, sprint, MSW: 10 for 29, 34%, $2.33 ROI. CHESTNUT made two starts on the all-weather surface at Gulfstream in the spring, and she ran pretty well both times; looked a little green while racing wide from the back in the debut, then showed more speed and rallied along the rail to make the lead, only to get nailed late in her second start; switches to dirt with blinkers on. POISE is a full-sister to multiple Grade 1-winner Society, who also raced for these connections; has recency on her main rivals, and she has progressed through racing for Asmussen; tries again after getting closed down by a longshot first-time starter in that last one.
Third Race
1. Belle Cherie
2. Royal Bobbie
3. Karey
BELLE CHERIE dropped to win her NY debut over a wet track off a layoff last September; faced a field that was way above average for the level in her next start and settled for a no-threat fourth, then gave game chase to a loose winner off the layoff; should be tighter for this, and Prat sticks. ROYAL BOBBIE is dropping for a barn that is heating up, and she is capable of pulling the right kind of trip from the chute, if she can break well – which is sometimes an issue for her; she also turns back for this, though she loses Prat to the top one. KAREY dropped to score an easy win going a mile in her second start off the claim last month; has earned to the top two figures of her career in her first two starts off the claim for this trainer; threat right back.
Fourth Race
1. Bakuto 2. Capt Fluff N Stuff 3. Just Classic
BAKUTO finished clear in second behind the only runner in the field that had a prior race when debuting earlier in the year; dueled the pace and tired in his next start, then tried to get a mile off the layoff last time; turns back and drops for a trainer having a strong meet so far. CAPT FLUFF N STUFF just went evenly when switched to dirt and turned back for his second start; showed more speed in an improved effort last time; new trainer drops him off the claim and adds blinkers. JUST CLASSIC hasn’t been seen since earning an 84 Beyer in a $300k stakes race last May; also ran well in his prior start when only second-best to a talented rival; starts back from a long layoff with a drop in class sprinting.
Fifth Race
1. All Star Leigh
2. Kinboshi
3. Fire Angel
ALL STAR LEIGH ran an excellent race on debut here 24 days ago when putting in a strong late run after missing the break; obviously can improve with that experience behind her, but she figures tough if just running as well right back. KINBOSHI is by a very good turf sire in Honest Mischief; the dam won on the grass, and she is a sister to a multiple graded stakes winner on turf; plenty of pedigree for a trainer who can win with a first-time starter. FIRE ANGEL made her debut going long, where she had the speed to clear to the early lead, but was pulled up early with an equipment issue; rates another chance turning back.
Sixth Race
1. Capricious Outcome
2. Printer’s Alley
3. I Can See That
CAPRICIOUS OUTCOME dropped to get the maiden win here last month, and he is just logically spotted to be competitive right back for top connections; drew perfectly at the rail and still has room to improve. PRINTER’S ALLEY’s lone win to date came on a different surface, though he has run well in all three subsequent starts on grass; drops and takes the blinkers off as he starts back fresh for this. I CAN SEE THAT got to the lead and never turned back en route to the maiden win last September; improved in his next start when contesting the pace and lasting for a piece behind a closing winner; dangerous if ready off the layoff.
Seventh Race
1. Cara Fiore
2. Immaculate Moon
3. Rose to Riches
Liked the debut effort from CARA FIORE when giving game chase to a favored stablemate before settling for second-best; she didn’t run as well in her next two starts, though she did find improved early speed before the layoff; has switched barns since; gets to sprint off the layoff with some slight class relief. IMMACULATE MOON debuted in a strong MSW sprint here as a 2yo, where she contested the pace and weakened late; pulled a similar trip in her next start when stuck chasing a heavy favorite on the lead before tiring; starts back with Lasix on. ROSE TO RICHES and LIL TIPSY finished close together while earning the top figure in this field behind an odds-on winner over this track and trip last time; logical in the second start off the layoff.
Eighth Race
1. Works for Me
2. Twenty Six Black
3. Doncho
WORKS FOR ME ran well twice over course and distance last summer before a layoff; his effort when brought back at Tampa was underrated while out of position for much of the race, and ran one of the best races of his career when gunning down allowance rivals at Keeneland two back; got slammed at the start and had little chance in the Grade 1 Jaipur last time; should have some pace to come after if Prat can work out a clean trip this time, and he will be a price. TWENTY SIX BLACK has earned triple-digit Beyers in three of his last four starts at Saratoga, capped off by that domination of the Harvey Pack last month after a perfect trip and ride; he is going to be hard to beat in his current form. DONCHO ran a very fast race two back from a stalking position, then was simply too good for that field last time when allowed to control an easy lead; ships in while holding good form and gets Irad.
Ninth Race
1. Blue Roof Beau
2. Mo for the King
3. Tricky Business
BLUE ROOF BEAU had to be used early to secure his position at the rail, and he just kept on going after contesting the pace to win his debut with a 75 Beyer; does show a gap in his works since, but he ran well in that lone appearance, and his speed plays in this race. MO FOR THE KING handled the mud when posting a blowout win with a 91 Beyer earlier in the year; he has lost as the chalk in all three starts since, though he ran another fast race when only second-best to a wire-to-wire winner two back; tires again. TRICKY BUSINESS was ready to go on debut when winning with a competitive figure going a mile; he got in too tough in his next start, then disappointed with blinkers on last time; turns back and the blinkers come right back off.
Tenth Race
1. Outsource
2. Hard Circle
3. Blast Furnace
OUTSOURCE has been facing tough competition since upsetting allowance horses with a big late run in his turf debut here last summer; good effort behind the undefeated Carc Brothers when dropped to this level last time. HARD CIRCLE also switched to turf to break his maiden earlier this year; he won that race sprinting, then came right back to win again when stretched out in distance; was behind the top one two back, though that was going longer; just failed to last when back to a mile last time; threat off the claim with Prat taking over. BLAST FURNACE had a right to need that first start back from the layoff two back when in against tougher; improved to just miss in a blanket finish here last time, though he was favored in that spot; blinkers on.
Eleventh Race
1. Brightline Bullet
2. After Taxes
3. Ortley Avenue
BRIGHTLINE BULLET made a promising debut as a 2yo last summer when nearly overcoming a poor start with a big run around the turn; looked good winning his return from the layoff, and he was in a very tough allowance race last time; he is talented, and there is turf in his pedigree. AFTER TAXES dropped to get the win off the layoff two back when claimed; thought he moved forward in his first start for Brown when winning right back off a good trip; in good form and tactical from the rail. ORTLEY AVENUE had trouble in his turf debut last May before finishing second (in a stakes race); ran in two even tougher races after that to no avail; properly spotted but has to be ready off the layoff.
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