WNBA Picks
Another 2-0 sweep for us on Saturday, and we’ve now cashed four in a row and six of our last eight. We’ll look to build on that today with a four-game slate featuring the New York Liberty hosting the Las Vegas Aces, the Washington Mystics hosting the Phoenix Mercury, the Dallas Wings visiting the Minnesota Lynx, and the Golden State Valkyries taking on the LA Sparks in Los Angeles. Here are the TSI projections for Sunday, August 9th.
New York Liberty (-9.5) vs Las Vegas Aces, O/U 179.5
I had to do a double-take when I first saw this line, but it made more sense when I learned A’ja Wilson will be sitting this one out for rest. The Liberty are finally starting to turn it on a little bit and are playing 2.5 points better than their season average over the last three games and have won six of their last seven. The Aces played two games without A’ja Wilson this season – coincidentally, the two games I attended in person – and post an average rating in those games fifteen points below their season average, in case you wondered why she’s the 4x MVP. I don’t want any part of this game without Wilson because Vegas is substantially different both in terms of rating and O/U projection without her, but TSI makes the game Liberty -8 (adjusted for Wilson being out) with a total of 178.
Washington Mystics (-1.5) vs Phoenix Mercury, O/U 167.5
Washington has now won six games in a row and is playing 6.5 points better than their season average, while Phoenix had faint playoff aspirations after acquiring Kelsey Plum, but they’ve actually been 2.5 points worse than their season average since trading for her at the deadline. Notably, their defense has been six points worse since the trade. TSI projects Mystics -2 with a total of 165.5, but the recent trends formula makes it more like Mystics -6 with a total of 160.5, so I like the Mystics and Under here.
Bet: Mystics -2 or better
Bet: Under 166.5 or better
Minnesota Lynx (-6.5) vs Dallas Wings, O/U 179.5
Minnesota disposed of Vegas yesterday in what was a championship-like matchup this late in the regular season, so I wonder how much they’re going to have left in the tank to take on Paige Bueckers & Co. today. Dallas has been awful lately, especially on the road, playing five points below their season average in their last three games and have also been five points worse on the road than at home. TSI projects Lynx -12.5 with a total of 180, but that assumes full strength, which I would not consider the Lynx to be at today after a game against the Aces yesterday. By my count, teams on back-to-backs are just 4-6 ATS this year. I think I’m going to pass on this game altogether as well.
LA Sparks (+6.5) vs Golden State Valkyries, O/U 170.5
LA has been outplaying their season average by six points over the last three games—basically since the Plum trade—while Golden State has also been on fire and playing seven points above their season average over the last three after losing back-to-back games prior to that stretch. TSI projects Golden State -5 with a total of 175. Golden State’s last five games have averaged 174 points, as they’ve increased their scoring average from 83 on the season to 91 over that stretch, and this LA defense is ripe for another outburst from the Valkyries’ offense. The last four LA games have averaged 196 points, so I think we’re getting a discount on the total here because of where Golden State was most of the season until recently.
Bet: Over 170.5 (Play to 171.5)
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
SPONSORED
VSiN: This is historic! 19-2 start to his WNBA Career. AUGUST YOUNG from Doc’s Sports has now delivered 14 straight premium WNBA winners! His complete record stands at 19-2—a 91% win rate—for +6,730 in documented profit.
Review every play and result here.
New members can also get started with a free $60 account here.
