Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Thursday, August 6 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 8.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Starship Titan (8th race)
Eighth Race
1. Shipsational
2. First Trumpet
3. Thrill of It
SHIPSATIONAL hasn’t won a race since going back-to-back in stakes races as a 2yo back in 2021, though he has more than held his own in some tough spots along the way; has been racing in good form recently, despite going longer than he prefers in two of his last three starts; cuts back off the claim. FIRST TRUMPET was in good form earlier this year while working his way up the class ladder; has been involved in a couple of fast paces recently, and there does not appear to be as much speed signed on this spot; dangerous if he can get comfortable early. THRILL OF IT appeared to get back to one of his good efforts when chasing a strong pace and taking a tough beat three starts back; tried moving up in class for his next start, then caught a wet track last time; he has back class, and his new trainer does good work with horses like this – first after claimed by, dirt: 8 for his last 35, 23%, $4.34 ROI.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other nine races on Thursday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Shipsational
2. First Trumpet
3. Thrill of It
SHIPSATIONAL hasn’t won a race since going back-to-back in stakes races as a 2yo back in 2021, though he has more than held his own in some tough spots along the way; has been racing in good form recently, despite going longer than he prefers in two of his last three starts; cuts back off the claim. FIRST TRUMPET was in good form earlier this year while working his way up the class ladder; has been involved in a couple of fast paces recently, and there does not appear to be as much speed signed on this spot; dangerous if he can get comfortable early. THRILL OF IT appeared to get back to one of his good efforts when chasing a strong pace and taking a tough beat three starts back; tried moving up in class for his next start, then caught a wet track last time; he has back class, and his new trainer does good work with horses like this – first after claimed by, dirt: 8 for his last 35, 23%, $4.34 ROI.
Second Race
1. Captain George
2. Howard’s Hope
3. Al Mowashaah
CAPTAIN GEORGE is by turf influence War of Will, and his female family is also all grass; interesting newcomer shows some good works leading up to his debut, but he will need a trip from the outside. HOWARD’S HOPE is a homebred by the excellent turf sire Karakontie (17% with juvenile first-time starters, 15% with turf routers); the dam won six times on the grass, and the second dam was a stakes winner on the surface; bred for this, and his trainer is off to a hot start at the meet. AL MOWASHAAH failed to break sharply from the gate and then raced awkwardly in his debut sprinting on dirt; bred to stretch out and gets Irad for the second start.
Third Race
1. Recurring Revenue
2. Always Honest
3. Montosoli
RECURRING REVENUE chased a fast pace from the outside on a day when the rail was the place to be in his debut early last year; missed a lot of time after that, then flashed brief speed before retreating in a tougher spot in his first start back; drops with speed. ALWAYS HONEST has been competitive when properly spotted (sprinting in the maiden claiming ranks); has run well from both on and off the pace, and getting back to six furlongs can help, after dueling and tiring going seven last time. MONTOSOLI made one start last year in a tougher MSW field on turf, and he pulled a very tough trip in that race while stuck wide throughout; bred more for this surface, but he might need one off the bench.
Fourth Race
1. Top of the Table
2. Jackson’s Dixie
3. Play Good Pay Good
TOP OF THE TABLE handles both turf and dirt, though she probably spent a bit too much time in the allowance ranks early on; took a tough beat after setting/contesting a solid pace when dropped off the claim by Rice on New Year’s Day, then came right back to win her next start from off the pace; has been back up in class since; drops with speed. JACKSON’S DIXIE is also back down in class for this after trying tougher in her first three starts off the claim for these connections; has won her last two starts at this level by open lengths. PLAY GOOD PAY GOOD’s three most recent wins have come at Finger Lakes, but she has already proven that she can run her race elsewhere, with prior wins at Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, and Keeneland; got stuck dueling in a pace that went to closers last time; can easily rebound.
Fifth Race
1. Eye On the Ball
2. Make a Prediction
3. High Leverage
EYE ON THE BALL improved when switched to turf two starts back, then took another step forward in that last one when ranging up in an early wide move to contest the pace and prevailing in the duel before getting run down on the wire; right back at the same level to try again. MAKE A PREDICTION raced greenly in his debut here as a 2yo, then improved in each of his next three starts while settling for third each time; starts back on the drop as a new gelding and adds Lasix. HIGH LEVERAGE used his speed to no avail going both long and short in the MSW ranks; just missed when dropped to this level two back, then tried moving back up in class and stretching out in distance last time; back in the right kind of spot with Irad taking over.
Sixth Race
1. Goodproblemtohave
2. Juana Margarita
3. Cream of the Crop
GOODPROBLEMTOHAVE was away from the gate well, then did some chasing along the inside before altering clear and finishing gamely to just miss second in a useful debut run here three weeks ago; can easily do better with that experience behind her. JUANA MARGARITA is from the female family of multiple NY-bred stakes winner Good Luck Gus, and she looks well-prepped for her debut with a progressive series of works showing; breaks from a nice outside post with Ortiz up. CREAM OF THE CROP has also been training well up to this for an underrated trainer; new sire Nashville has four debut winners so far, and this filly is from the female family of major Grade 1 winner Mucho Macho Man.
Seventh Race
1. Market Timing
2. Risk Tolerance
3. Deep Manhattan
MARKET TIMING impressed while motoring away from maidens when making his turf debut off a long layoff at Monmouth; this is going to be much tougher, but he hit another gear to run away from that field through a fast final fraction, suggesting he might be this good. RISK TOLERANCE has come up short in all three starts so far as a 5yo, though he did earn a big figure while facing tougher than thus last time; freshened up for top connections. DEEP MANHATTAN settled kindly into a nice trip, then blasted through the stretch to win his lone start to date, which came over 600 days ago at the end of his 2yo season; has a right to need one on the way back, but he has some talent.
Ninth Race
1. Donegal Surges
2. Sacrosanct
3. Doc Sullivan
DONEGAL SURGES is capable of an effort that would make him a strong contender in this race if in the mood, which is always a question with him; has run inexplicably poorly at times, but his good effort is quite good; he is versatile in terms of distance, and he can do it with or without the lead; demand a price if playing. SACROSANCT has been back in form as a 4yo following a couple of off efforts on either side of a layoff around a trainer change last year; has learned to rate, but he should be closer to the pace in this spot assuming a clean break, which was the issue in that tough allowance last week; back quickly, and back in with fellow NY-breds. DOC SULLIVAN has switched barns since last seen failing to land a blow in a Grade 3 going longer than he prefers; won this race on a turn back last year with a 98 Beyer, and he has won two more NY-bred stakes since, both with competitive figures.
Tenth Race
1. Not Tapping
2. Amicus Curiae
3. Sky Low Low
NOT TAPPING had an excuse in the turf debut when bumped hard at the start to wind up last, then looked uncomfortable while failing to get into the clear for the stretch run; she only improved slightly last time, though she was caught wide around the track that day after breaking from the far outside post; rates one more chance if in. AMICUS CURIAE got caught behind horses and could not get a run going in the stretch in each of her first two starts; was strongly rated to let the pace go, and then the leaders never came back to her last time when dropped to this level; wouldn’t mind seeing what she can do with a more aggressive ride as she tries again, this time with Lasix on. SKY LOW LOW’s late rally came up just short last time while finishing ahead of several of these same rivals; has already had her chances, but that was a step in the right direction after a brief freshening.
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