MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Thursday, August 6.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
12:35 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
Angels starting pitcher Ryan Johnson has had a brutal season, posting a 7.63 ERA with 2.3 home runs and 3.9 walks per nine innings. Orioles starting pitcher Brandon Young has pitched to quite a bit of contact with 7.4 strikeouts per nine innings, but has kept his ERA low at 3.31 with one home run and 3.1 walks per nine innings. He faces an Angels lineup that entered Wednesday averaging just under 2.6 runs per game in their first 16 games since the All-Star Break.
Pick: Orioles Run Line -1.5 +125
Greg’s Handicap: Orioles -1.5 +104
1:10 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians
Mets starting pitcher Nolan McLean has a 3.29 ERA and 3.47 fielding independent with 10.6 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings. Foster Griffin makes his first start for the Guardians after supplying a 3.06 ERA and 4.09 fielding independent with 8.1 strikeouts and 2.1 walks per nine innings. He faces a Mets lineup that is last in the National League in road scoring with 3.9 runs per game. Cleveland is overall last in the league in run production with 3.9 runs per game.
Picks: Guardians Moneyline -105 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -109 and Total 7.6
2:10 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Braxton Ashcraft should be due in for some positive regression as he owns a 3.96 ERA and 3.53 fielding independent with 9.9 strikeouts and 2.2 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that is third in scoring with 5.1 runs per game. The bullpen is 22nd in ERA at 4.34. The Brewers are fifth in offense with nearly five runs per game and give Dustin May his first start in Milwaukee after beginning the season with the St. Louis Cardinals, posting a 4.38 ERA but a lower 3.14 fielding independent with 0.6 home runs per nine innings.
Pick: Pirates vs. Brewers Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
4:10 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners
Mariners starting pitcher Bryce Miller has had a dandy season with with a 2.80 ERA with nine strikeouts and 1.6 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that ranks fifth in ERA at 3.70. The offense is 28th in scoring with under four runs per game. Tigers starting pitcher Framber Valdez has a 4.41 ERA with a career-low 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings. He has a lower 4.13 fielding independent with 0.9 home runs per nine innings allowed and is backed up by a bullpen that is fifth in ERA at 3.27 since June 1.
Pick: Mariners Moneyline -125
Greg’s Handicap: Mariners -149
7:10 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Luis Castillo is making his first start for the Chicago White Sox after a shaky start to the season with the Seattle Mariners, posting a 5.06 ERA but a lower 4.57 fielding independent with 2.9 walks per nine innings. As good as the Red Sox have been of late, they are averaging less than 4.1 runs per game at home compared to nearly 4.7 runs per game away from home . Red Sox starting pitcher Ranger Suarez owns a 3.15 ERA with a lower 2.55 fielding independent with 0.5 home runs and 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: White Sox vs. Red Sox Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3
7:15 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Marlins starting pitcher Janson Junk is pitching to tons of contact, with seven strikeouts per nine innings, 1.3 home runs per nine innings allowed, and a 4.56 ERA. Braves starting pitcher Martin Perez is also pitching to a lot of contact with 6.9 strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings, posting a 3.24 ERA and a 4.29 fielding independent. The Braves bullpen leads the National League in ERA at 3.44.
Pick: Marlins vs. Braves Over 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 9.2
9:40 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Kohl Drake is making his fourth MLB start, posting a 4.85 ERA and 5.87 fielding independent with 2.1 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings. He had a 6.92 ERA at the minor league level. Padres starting pitcher Walker Buehler owns a 5.18 ERA but a lower 4.46 fielding independent with 1.2 home runs and 3.8 walks per nine innings allowed. He is backed up by a bullpen that is third in the National League in ERA at 3.71. The Diamondbacks are 18th in bullpen ERA at 4.15.
Picks: Padres -102 and Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Padres -106 and Total 9.2
