Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Mike Beer handicaps the Wednesday, August 12 racing card at Saratoga, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 9.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Mistborn (9th race)
Ninth Race
1. Mistborn
2. Gum
3. Channelview
GUM has had her chances, but she just missed two back when handled by a 5 lb bug rider, and she might have gotten there last time if not for running up on the leaders and having to steady/take up in deep stretch; can have one more chance. MISTBOGUM moved belatedly in her debut, and she has improved in both starts since while unable to reel in winning stablemates Marketplaceofideas and Crossover Capital, both of whom returned to win; this drop might be even bigger than it looks. CHANNELVIEW has the look of a closing sprinter; turf form is good, but she needs to prove that she can produce a finish going long.
Here are Mike’s thoughts on the other eight races on Wednesday’s Saratoga card.
First Race
1. Lynches Knock
2. Cyber Ninja
3. Lord Flintshire
Lightly raced LYNCHES KNOCK won twice in Ireland prior to shipping over; went to the lead in the stateside debut, then was taken back and rallied well when trying this longer distance for the first time most recently; figuring it out, CYBER NINJA is the clear one to beat off yet another solid try last time over course and distance, though he was only second-best that day. LORD FLINTSHIRE finished well behind CYBER NINJA in the Kiser Memorial; tried mid-moving in that race as the 1-2 finishers were waited with.
Second Race
1. Business Math
2. Dream About
3. Beechwood’s Best
BUSINESS MATH debuted over a wet track earlier in the meet, where she raced wide and was just being held together from a long way out after showing only brief speed; more importantly, she faced a loaded field in that spot; expecting a better effort as she drops right away with Ortiz sticking. DREAM ABOUT is by 12% juvenile debut sire Mitole, and a half-sister to seven winners from this dam, including two first-out winners; trainer more than capable with a first-time starter. BEECHWOOD’S BEST has one sibling to race, and that filly was a debut winner as a 2yo; the dam was a stakes-placed dirt sprinter; Brown 2 for his last 7 debuting dirt sprinters for a tag ($3.27 ROI).
Third Race
1. Ilenas Kaz Way
2. Lots of Kisses
3. R P Byrne
ILENAS KAZ WAY has a turf pedigree, and she ran very well in her debut here last month after a troubled start; right back at the same level, and facing many of the same rivals in her second start while looking for a cleaner trip. LOTS OF KISSES came out and bumped ILENAS KAZ WAY hard at the start of that last race, leaving them both out of position early. LOTS OF KISSES was patiently ridden after that early trouble, and she produced a strong finish that came up just short in that spot; tries again. R P BYRNE showed speed in her first two starts (separated by a layoff) to no avail; has tried different tactics in both recent starts, including that last one when sitting a good trip and getting outfinished by LOTS OF KISSES late; logical contender right back at the same level.
Fourth Race
1. Mischievous M
2. Classic Time
3. Power Attack
MISCHIEVOUS M ran pretty well when trying a wide, pace-tracking trip in the slop when in as an MTO off the claim two back; sat just off the pace and dueled through the stretch before settling for second to favored Art Fair last time; has some back races that make him tough in here, and his early speed plays in this race. CLASSIC TIME’s back-to-back wins off the long layoff earlier this year made it four in a row sprinting on dirt dating back to his maiden victory here as a 2yo; couldn’t handle tougher in his two most recent starts; looks tough dropping in class for this. POWER ATTACK has spent most of his career on other surfaces, and he handles both turf and synthetic, but his fastest race came when turned back on dirt in his first start off the claim for this trainer in March; also ran well back on dirt two back; switching surfaces again.
Fifth Race
1. Brillante
2. Artistic Success
3. Ur Desire
BRILLANTE was sharp while overcoming a slow start to crush maidens in her stateside debut off the layoff last January; broke slowly again, then hung a bit after taking a wide run around the turn before the layoff; starts back on the drop. ARTISTIC SUCCESS tried sprinting to no avail on either side of the layoff, then was back to showing speed when stretched back out in distance last time; ran two of the best races of her career on this turf course last summer with Irad up; has the outside but enters right back at the same level. UR DESIRE’s lone win to date came on dirt; ran okay in her first start on the grass, then never landed a blow in her next two starts after lacking early speed; needs this class drop.
Sixth Race
1. Omi Maria
2. Sweet Grace
3. Instant Stardom
OMI MARIA is by a precocious sire, and she gets turf from her female family, which includes two winning siblings on grass (one debut winner); breezing right along for an up-and-coming trainer who also has a 2yo debut winner at the meet. SWEET GRACE wasn’t aggressively ridden after getting away toward the back of the field, and she just raced on evenly when into the clear for the stretch drive in her debut last month; can easily build on that experience. INSTANT STARDOM is a $50k daughter of top sire Into Mischief; the dam was unraced, but she is a sister to a pair of graded stakes winners on grass; might want to go longer than this.
Seventh Race
1. She’s Fast Money
2. In the Queue
3. Under the Moon
SHE’S FAST MONEY looked good breezing under a pull before selling for $50k in May; dam was a stakes-placed dirt sprinter, and this is the female family of the very fast Safely Kept; Englehart as good as any trainer on the grounds with juvenile first-time starters sprinting on dirt. IN THE QUEUE didn’t take much money in her debut here early in the meet, but she did some running in that spot while dueling and tiring in a race that collapsed at the end; dangerous with that experience behind her. UNDER THE MOON’s new sire has three debut winners so far from his first crop, and this is a female family full of NY-bred winners; appears to be training forwardly up to the debut for a capable first-out barn.
Eighth Race
1. Higher Force
2. Brunch With Amy
3. Answered Prayers
HIGHER FORCE posted a determined win after a long pace battle going a mile last time; has won twice previously going this longer distance, while her six rivals have two wins over nine furlongs combined; stretches back out with speed. Unclear if BRUNCH WITH AMY wants to go this far, but her recent form is solid; lost her chance when blocked through the stretch two back, and she was rated behind a moderate pace last time. ANSWERED PRAYERS scored a maiden victory in her two-turn debut at Keeneland, then ran to about the same level while settling for second in each of her next two starts; new face is in from Kentucky with the upside.
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