The ATP and WTA Tours are fully into the North American hard-court swing, and this week brings our first true benchmark events with the 1000-level stops in Montreal and Toronto. With the US Open now on the horizon, this stretch is where contenders start to separate, dialing in their timing, adjusting to quicker conditions, and building real momentum against elite fields.
These tournaments carry significant weight on both tours, giving us a strong read on form, fitness, and potential title paths heading into New York. There’s no shortage of high-level matches to break down, so we’ll have plenty to work with as the week unfolds. I’ll be posting my tennis best bets Monday through Friday, then rolling out my championship picks on the VSiN Pro Picks page for the weekend finals.
With that in mind, keep reading for my tennis best bets for the National Bank Open on Wednesday, August 12.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Brandon Nakashima vs. Rafael Jodar
Nakashima has been playing some good tennis since jumping back over to hard courts. In Washington D.C., the American took out Jakub Mensik and Alex de Minaur before losing a tight three-setter against Taylor Fritz. He’s now into the semifinals in Canada, where he’s serving at a high level and doing his usual good work as a quick-strike player. Of course, Jodar continues to be one of the best players on the planet, and he’ll be up to at least No. 11 in the rankings after this event. Also, his last couple of matches have featured statement victories, as the Spaniard has earned straight-set wins over Lorenzo Musetti, Jiri Lehecka, and Arthur Fils. If Jodar plays his best tennis, he should pick up yet another victory. However, Nakashima’s ability to rack up holds means this could be a match that goes three sets, and any dip in level from Jodar could mean a loss.
Nakashima’s no-nonsense approach should allow him to work himself deep into some sets, setting up some crunch-time situations in which a mistake from Jodar could cost him a set. That’s enough for me to take Nakashima to get on the board, and I genuinely believe the American has what it takes to steal a victory here.
Bet: Nakashima +1.5 Sets (-133 – 1.5 units) & Nakashima ML (+210 – 0.5 units)
Learner Tien vs. Ben Shelton
Shelton might be playing the best tennis of his career right now. Of course, we have seen the American go deep at majors before, so that might be a ridiculous thing to say about a run in a non-Slam. However, Shelton’s backhand was absurd in his dominant win over Mensik, and he’s also doing solid work as a returner. If he keeps this up, he should continue to post very big results — and back-to-back titles in Canada seems like a very realistic outcome. It is, however, hard to lay off Tien at +163 odds.
If Shelton brings his A-game to this one, he should find a way into the winner’s circle. But Tien is going to do everything in his power to muck this match up, looking to extend rallies and extract errors out of Shelton. That has worked in their previous two matchups, as Tien is 2-0 against Shelton — and one of the victories came at Indian Wells earlier this season.
Tien’s mediocre serving could ultimately do him in here, but I’d feel like a fool passing up on a big plus-money price in a matchup that has clearly favored the 20-year-old.
Bet: Tien ML (+163)
Elina Svitolina vs. Iga Swiatek
Coco Gauff vs. Elena Rybakina
I don’t have any straight plays for the women’s semifinals, but I like Swiatek to beat Svitolina. So, in order to get a better price on the Pole, I’m parlaying the moneyline with Gauff to take a set off Rybakina.
With Swiatek, it’s pretty clear that she’s back to playing the style of tennis that won her multiple Grand Slams. She’s taking some pace off the ball, putting some more shape on her shots, and moving opponents around until she has clear runways to go for winners. And if she’s not ending points herself, her ability to keep rallies alive is causing her opponents to rack up unforced errors. Swiatek is also back to being a relentless returner, so she’s a consistent serve away from being a Slam contender again. And I ultimately think the tennis we’ve seen from her lately will be enough for her to get by Svitolina.
In the other match, I just don’t think Rybakina is serving well enough to beat Gauff in straights. Rybakina deserves a ton of credit for coming back to beat Osaka on Tuesday, but Gauff’s elite returning should go a pretty long way in this match. Also, Gauff’s shaky forehand shouldn’t be as big of a weakness considering Rybakina’s forehand is also a bit unreliable right now.
PARLAY: Swiatek ML & Gauff +1.5 Sets (-120 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
