Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Kenny Peck handicaps the Wednesday, April 1 racing card at Tampa Bay Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 4.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Cajun Hottie (4th race)
Fourth Race
1. Cajun Hottie
2. Cowgirl Jig
3. Heybabyyougotit
CAJUN HOTTIE goes longer than she ever has, but she clearly fits based on her latest effort and Beyer; she will likely be looking to wire these, as she does come out of races that featured a lot of speed, and this sprint seems to be a little light on same. COWGIRL JIG is kin to a stakes-placed sprinter in Drewmania. She makes her debut today against a field that seems to be average for the class level; sports a couple of works that hint at some ability. HEYBABYYOUGOTIT lost her best chance at the start in her debut, then was shelved and now returns for a tag; last couple of breezes suggest she’s ready.
Here are Kenny’s thoughts on the other eight races on Wednesday’s Tampa Bay Downs card.
First Race
1. Distinguished Gent
2. R Markovich
3. Johnny Bolt
DISTINGUISHED GENT is stuck on the AE list and will need some help getting into this race, but if he does scratch in, he’s one to consider against this seemingly modest group, as his best Beyers do give him credibility and he may be overlooked some; also figures to appreciate the move from Gulfstream to Tampa. R MARKOVICH is another Also Eligible with a big shot if able to get into the race, as he’s an upgrade candidate off his last pair, when off the pace in races lacking speed; needs pace but dangerous if he gets it. JOHNNY BOLT is easy to like off that near-miss in his latest; has speed but can also rate and make one run if need be.
Second Race
1. Tinkatwo
2. Vesper Chicks
3. Miss Uproar
TINKATWO has fairly steady Beyers and now drops in price in search of that elusive second career win; latest was deceptively good, as she was against a speed-favoring race flow. VESPER CHICKS hit the board in each of her last three under similar conditions, and the Beyers she posted in those races give her strong credibility in this spot; tactical speed should mean another favorable setup, such as in that last one. MISS UPROAR gets the rail and more ground as she exits an abbreviated sprint that featured a good amount of early speed, and all of that means she’ll be more involved in the opening stages today; big threat given a forward trip and moderate fractions.
Third Race
1. Fit to Fire
2. Westminster
3. K Paz
FIT TO FIRE comes off solid Beyers in each of his last two starts, and though he was aided by favorable race flows in those races, he can shake loose in the opening stages and back down the fractions. WESTMINSTER lost position at the start and that cost him; he may have needed that race anyway. He can be expected to improve today in his second start off the layoff, likely to show more early zip given a clean getaway. K PAZ has been at this non-winners of two level for some time, but he does have consistent figures and a decent late kick; also eligible to improve given a better pace scenario.
Fifth Race
1. British Empress
2. Enchant
3. Sugar Magnolia
BRITISH EMPRESS is 0-for-20 overall, and that’s an obvious drawback, but she’s only been on the turf seven times, and she’s largely faced better in her career; trainer Lauren Robson has done well with a limited number of starters, including two recent winners with horses moving from dirt to turf (both at Gulfstream). ENCHANT failed to win her first 17 starts, but this class drop figures to help the cause; she’s been consistent of late in terms of Beyers, and she’s shown herself to be versatile enough to race on the lead or come from off the pace. SUGAR MAGNOLIA was claimed two back for this same tag, and though she was off the board in her return against a step better, she moved too soon there and faded late; the one to beat.
Sixth Race
1. Elusive d’Oro
2. Megan’s Honor
3. Harper’s Afleet
ELUSIVE D’ORO regressed a bit in his latest, but he returns to the level of his latest win, which came three back, and he lands in a good spot in terms of the expected race flow, as there is enough speed to set him up for a late run. MEGAN’S HONOR was claimed out of each of his last two and now makes his first start for trainer Benny Feliciano, who wins at 29% with such runners, including a $3.37 ROI; another who should be well positioned behind a quick, contested pace. HARPER’S AFLEET regressed in his latest after a career-best Beyer in the race two back, but he may have been too close to a fast pace in that one; perhaps not as good as he looked in that win over non-winners of three, but likely better than his latest may appear.
Seventh Race
1. Thirsted
2. Magnus Gold
3. Double Miles
THIRSTED would normally be a horse to possibly take a stand against at a short price, as that career-best Beyer in his latest was a product of an ideal trip, but there are few options in this field, and the drop in class only adds to the appeal; can probably regress off that figure and still win this. MAGNUS GOLD has fairly steady turf Beyers and comes off a runner-up effort two back and a deceptively good try in his latest, when he made a mid-race run and weakened only late; has enough speed to stay close from the outset, especially from this inside post. DOUBLE MILES was far off the board in his only grass try to date, back in October, but that was against better, and the resulting Beyer gives him credibility in this spot.
Eighth Race
1. Thelastbulletsmine
2. Top Pocket Pick
3. Hot Dance
THELASTBULLETSMINE was on the lead in her last couple of starts but she has proven she can take back off the lead and make a run in the lane, and she in fact may be at her best under those circumstances; expecting a switch back to those tactics as she makes her first start off the Mike Simone claim, and the jockey change to the returning Paco Lopez. TOP POCKET PICK weakened after prompting the pace in her latest, when sent longer, but she has every right to run to her prior Beyers at this distance, which put her in the middle of this; should be well spotted from the break, thanks to her tactical early foot. HOT DANCE is likely to improve off her last couple, when she was in against better; ability to race on the lead or come from off the pace a plus.
Ninth Race
1. Big Lous Messenger
2. D’argento Bolt
3. Apple Shake Shake
BIG LOUS MESSENGER might be the deceptive clear speed in this nightcap, which is a little light on early zip; she rated behind the leaders in her first start off the layoff and was unable to make an impact late, but she goes from a pacy field to one lacking speed, and that should mean she’s on or near the lead today. D’ARGENTO BOLT merits respect based on her last couple of Beyers, which fit well with this group, and that was despite a fair amount of trouble in her last try, under these same conditions. APPLE SHAKE SHAKE didn’t show much of a late kick in her latest despite a swift opening quarter, which was a surprise given the way she closed in her prior try; may prove a threat late if she can run back to that effort today.
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