Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Kenny Peck handicaps the Wednesday, January 21 racing card at Tampa Bay Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 3.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Speaker’s Lobby (3rd race)
Third Race
1. Speaker’s Lobby
2. Red Sky Morning
3. Stoneybrook Road
SPEAKER’S LOBBY was aided by a quick early pace in that return from the break but he was really moving well late, and the fractions should once again be fast enough to help set him up to make an impact late; that 71 Beyer is likely good enough to win this, if he can run back to it in his second start off the short layoff. RED SKY MORNING is an upgrade candidate after racing off the pace in a race lacking early zip in that last one, which was his first try since April; obviously has every right to improve today, especially if the splits are quicker. STONEYBROOK ROAD gets jockey Jose Ferrer for his debut and should be involved from the start; dam’s only other starter was a four-time winner, albeit on the dirt.
Here are Kenny’s thoughts on the other eight races on Wednesday’s Tampa Bay Downs card.
First Race
1. My Lil Flirt
2. R Skyline
3. Knowledge Is Good
MY LIL FLIRT gets the most tepid of nods in an inscrutable opener. She wasn’t within 12 lengths of the winner in her three starts to date but those were at Gulfstream, and she did make mid-race runs before tiring in both of the route tries; perhaps good enough with a better-timed move. R SKYLINE gets Lasix in her first start as a 3-year-old and that’s a strong angle for trainer Gerald Bennett, and makes her a contender by default; connections alone make her a threat in this field. KNOWLEDGE IS GOOD is the one to beat based on a game effort and a near miss in her latest, though she looms a short price due to that running line; logical enough.
Second Race
1. Naughty Rascal
2. Rouki
3. Uncashed
NAUGHTY RASCAL could well be in need of a race or prepping for longer in his first start since March of last year but some of the best races of his career have come in sprints, over this track, and he lands in a very good spot in terms of race flow; his tactical speed should mean he’s ideally spotted behind a contested pace and he can make the last run given a clean trip. ROUKI has speed but can also rate, and that versatility should come in handy given the expected race flow; from the same barn as the top pick, and he should be around twice the price. UNCASHED is one of the likely speeds but he may be quickest of them all, coming out of recent races where he made the lead despite the presence of other quick horses, and he held well late; capable of winning this if he can withstand heavy pressure but he’ll be a relatively short price.
Fourth Race
1. C R Insta Gator
2. Capture the Time
3. Peace Cloud
C R INSTA GATOR is widest but he has proven speed and should be prominent from the outset, even at this shorter distance, which could be an edge since this sprint lacks a clear-cut pace scenario; barn’s record off this type of break and the fact that he is better going longer make this a bit of a flyer but the price will be right and he should get a favorable trip. CAPTURE THE TIME had no chance when overmatched in that last one but he ran a decent race two back, also against better; should appreciate the class relief and a forward trip should give him an edge on the closers. PEACE CLOUD sprints in his third start off the layoff and second off the claim for trainer Greg Sacco, who wins at 23% with horses turning back from routes to sprints; dangerous if able to stay close in the opening stages.
Fifth Race
1. Paiute
2. Kaffeinate
3. Dunloe
PAIUTE is out of a dam who won four of her nine career races, including her own career debut; lone starter to date is winless in 14 career starts but this filly has been training steadily toward her first start for trainer Chad Brown, and that makes her an obvious contender, given the barn’s record under these circumstances. KAFFEINATE is another who is an automatic contender based on her connections, as trainer Miguel Clement has been sensational at this meet; was off the board in her only start thus far but she can be expected to improve in her 2nd career start (21% angle for the barn) and with Lasix added for the first time (47%). DUNLOE has one of the better work tabs in this field, and she’ll be many times the price of fellow firster DEFERENCE, the second starter from Clement; the former is out of a dam who scored first time out and went on to win three more races on the turf, with her lone runner winning her career debut (on dirt), while the latter is kin to High Opinion, a stakes winner on the grass who earned over $412K.
Sixth Race
1. Red Fern
2. Polizon
3. Ashryver
RED FERN didn’t fare all that well when stretched out to a mile in that last one but he’s back in a sprint today and this does seem to be his preferred game; he has a decent late kick and he should get enough pace to chase, with a couple of confirmed speeds to his inside. POLIZON has had his chances (10) but he does have steady figures and he’s run well in defeat on a couple of recent occasions; he does like to be on or near the lead, so he’ll need to avoid a duel up front, but if he can rate just off the speed(s) he may be able to make a push late. ASHRYVER is another potential frontrunner but perhaps this slight cutback means he can sit off the pace some; latest may have been a prototypical “bounce”, which would mean this will be a big move forward.
Seventh Race
1. Attending
2. She’s Gone Rogue
3. My Gal
ATTENDING ran on well for the place in that last one, and while that was on the main track she also ran well in defeat two back, when she rallied for fourth to be beaten by only three lengths despite legit traffic trouble; she’s a closer, reliant on the pace, but she should get an honest tempo to chase today. SHE’S GONE ROGUE was never a threat in her return but that dull effort probably had more to do with the tougher competition than it does the layoff; back in for a tag today and she’s another who figures to be in position to take advantage of a lively tempo up front. MY GAL threw a clunker when last on the grass, two back, but she may have been too close to a quick pace in that one; prior Beyers good enough to make her a threat and she should be a square price.
Eighth Race
1. Paynter’s Prodigy
2. Political Riot
3. Bold Looker
PAYNTER’S PRODIGY sure looks to be the dominant speed in this route, which is otherwise light on established early zip; he was game in his last pair when second each time and he has every right to steal this on the front end if he can get away with an unpressured early advantage, as expected. POLITICAL RIOT may be the one to get first run on the top pick, and his positional speed will give him an edge on the closers if the pace is in fact controlled; obvious threat coming off the career-best dirt Beyer in his latest. BOLD LOOKER lands in another paceless race, coming off two straight races where speeds held the edge, but he does have more speed than he’s shown in those, as he’s been closer to the pace in past races; maybe the right price play for bottom of exotics.
Ninth Race
1. Nicky Jolene
2. Mischievous Trick
3. Sea Shanty
NICKY JOLENE had no chance to last when caught up in an early duel in a pace-packed race that set up very well for those runners coming from off the pace (note inverted “C” in DRF running line, indicating an extreme edge to Closers), a tough trip, especially considering she doesn’t need the lead; expecting her to go back to rating tactics today and that could lead to her running to her better Beyers, which put her in the thick of this. MISCHIEVOUS TRICK sat a perfect trip and took full advantage of it in her latest, a race rained off the turf; still not convinced she’s not better on this surface, as the Beyer she posted in the maiden score three back fits well here, and she didn’t run badly in her only try against winners on the green, when in against better. SEA SHANTY drops in class after finishing off the board for $25,000 and she fits well here based on the figure she posted in that loss; should be running late.
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