Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Scott Ehlers handicaps the Monday, February 23 racing card at Turf Paradise, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 6.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Littleyellowjacket (6th race)
Sixth Race
1. Littleyellowjacket
2. Cozmic Brownie
3. Lucky and Gone
LITTLEYELLOWJACKET just ran better and now has solid starts in both races. Always nice to see improved front speed for a maiden. Second Lasix and a good barn both go in the plus column. A fairly full field helps all exotics. COZMIC BROWNIE did not break great in his debut but still beat over half the field home. Now he goes from an inside post to an outside one. Note the fast works before said debut. LUCKY AND GONE is by a 3-for-4 debut sire. His dam went 18-6-4-1 and earned 41K. One of two sibs won but only once. SCORCHING HOT is by the same sire as our 3rd pick (75%). His dam went 3-0-0-0. Of 9 sibs to race, 6 won and 2 beat winners (267K and 87K). We are very interested in early tote play. HIGHER PERFORMANCE is by a 2-for-11 debut sire. His dam went 26-4-0-2 and earned 90K. Lone sib is 12-3-0-0 for 15K. CONNOR B AWESOME is by a 16% debut sire. His dam was unraced. Both sibs beat winners (42K and 76K). DOWNPOUR is by a 13% debut sire. His dam went 21-5-5-1 and earned 102K. This is her first foal.
Here are Scott’s thoughts on the other seven races on Monday’s Turf Paradise card.
First Race
1. Famous Mobster
2. Sweetdisire
3. Imm Beyond the Stars
Quarter horses.
Second Race
1. Chapter Seven
2. Western Feel
3. Miss Madame
CHAPTER SEVEN is by a 0-for-4 debut sire (1 for 23 overall). Her dam went 17-4-7-3 and earned 175K (won 2YO debut). All 3 sibs beat winners and banked 40K, 36K, and 94K. Works are solid and the price hopeful. WESTERN FEEL technically tried winners last out and ran well when second at 10-1. In reality, those Hcap races aren’t that strong and often full of maidens. Penchant for the place is main concern, but we do like this upcoming trip from this outside draw. MISS MADAME is a grinder that gets back to sprinting. Class jump helps price, while Americano seems to win at least one race every day.
Third Race
1. Rapporteur
2. Another Lifer
3. Lucky Tiger
RAPPORTEUR is by a 23% debut sire. His dam was unraced. Of 7 sibs to race, 6 won, with 3 having beat winners (248K, 295K, and 297K). Works are solid and for a top-shelf barn. Main question is why is this horse here, let alone in maiden claimers? Connections are in the red if claimed. ANOTHER LIFER is by a 10% debut sire. His dam went 9-2-2-2 and earned 34K. Both sibs beat winners and earned 28K/30K. Always nice to see a bullet work. LUCKY TIGER tries much easier all on the surface switch. A local work can’t hurt. Early tote watch is ordered.
Fourth Race
1. Peak Earnings
2. Platinum Diva
3. Zippin Sevenz
PEAK EARNINGS is a solid turf horse that shipped in here and could not have run any worse. Did you notice that he was sent off at 9-1? Now first call rider gets a leg up in Mojica. Other speed should make for a difficult trip, but good horses simply find a way. Time to test that theory at what might be a decent price. PLATINUM DIVA ran great 2 and 3 back but then not so much last out. Was that the third race bounce compared to the second race bounce? It is not unheard of. This mare can pass runners and gets a fast pace to chase. ZIPPIN SEVENZ made a nice middle move last out and then tired. A checkered trip did not help matters. If you told us this horse was going to sit early with late energy possible, then we would have moved her up. LOVEABOVEANDBEYOND exits a key race where 2 of 4 returned to win with figs of 71 and 65.
Fifth Race
1. Sweet Cindi Lulu
2. Mistysingstheblues
3. Distorted Louv
SWEET CINDI LULU is by a 11% debut sire. Her dam was unraced, and this is her first foal. Lack of info helps the price considerably. Owner/trainer shows some fast works, so that and a good price has got us hook, line, and sinker. MISTYSINGSTHEBLUES is by a 26% debut sire. Her dam went 23-4-3-5 and earned 27K. This is her first foal. We actually like that this filly makes her debut as a 4YO. DISTORTED LOUV is often right there and draws more outside today. KELBELA is by a 13% debut sire. Her dam went 13-3-3-0 and earned 27K. Lone sib is 3-0-0-0.
Seventh Race
1. Jin Tong
2. Katar
3. Riverside
JIN TONG has hit the exacta on this dirt in 7 of 12 starts, so he loves it here. He only ran evenly last out, but 6 1/2 furlongs in that spot isn’t easy. He should move forward second off the layoff, while double layoff lines are now water under the bridge. Race flow is average, but we still think his A game wins this. KATAR is a horse for course that has done most of his winning here. He won his last two starts off a layoff and draws best. The one to beat. RIVERSIDE ran OK last out, and that was after shipping in from Canada. This barn is 22% second off this type of layoff. Americano gets a leg up and is 30% for this outfit.
Eighth Race
1. G Dawg
2. Quebrancho
3. Blacksod Bay
G DAWG just ran a Beyer top and now puts three races together. He needs a solid pace to chase and gets it if all stay in. QUEBRANCHO has a penchant for less but often at a good price. He gets back to one turn, and maybe that helps shake things up. Regular rider tags along while race flow more than fair. BLACKSOD BAY has speed and draws outside main pace foes. Does he like it here, though? The jury is out on that one, but it is nice to see Cruz get a leg up.
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