Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Scott Ehlers handicaps the Tuesday, February 10 racing card at Turf Paradise, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 7.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: My Munnings Model (7th race)
Seventh Race
1. My Munnings Model
2. Street Humor
3. Mount Pelliar
MY MUNNINGS MODEL is today’s best bet. Current form is improving, and this guy is bred to love the green with his 338 turf Tommy. He missed a Beyer top by two points in his recent grass start. Rail draw gives Cruz all the early options. Team Anderson are 13% on the green. STREET HUMOR has yet to win on the sod, but his Beyer top did come on it. Team Martinez are 25% going dirt to turf. This gelding has some speed and might want the front end. MOUNT PELLIAR might get a nice trip off the speeds. That 66 Beyer on this sod three back fits. New jockey is noted. BROWN TOWN is by a 3% debut turf sire. His dam went 8-0-4-3 on the grass and earned 14K. This is her first grass foal.
Here are Scott’s thoughts on the other seven races on Tuesday’s Turf Paradise card.
First Race
1. Av Lillys Tornadoe
2. Say Its Not So
3. Ms Danys Icon
Quarter horses.
Second Race
1. Chica Tigre
2. Smokin Hot Chick
3. Scarlett Letter
CHICA TIGRE out ran her odds when first on the turf only two back. She blew the start in her most recent. Class drop might prove the tipping point all for a runner that might be a new route horse. SMOKIN HOT CHICK is the fresh face from SoCal. We would not be shocked if she showed some speed in this spot. Yet to try two turns is the X factor, but team Silva are 26% with new runners and 24% going sprint to route. SCARLETT LETTER gets second Lasix, second routing, all while third off the layoff. Here is another class dropper. Team Rarick are having a fine meet as exacta players have scored with 12 of their 32 starters.
Third Race
1. Hot Legs Romolo
2. Sugar Buzz
3. McClusky
HOT LEGS ROMOLO was simply unlucky to lose back-to-back photos on this sod, only two and three back. Not sure why he cut back to an elongated sprint last out, but getting hooked early hurt. Team Silva Jr are 20% going sprint to route. This gelding should find the front end today. SUGAR BUZZ went favored last out and then ran evenly. That was his first start here after trying Gulfstream foes. He should be more acclimated now. He draws fine and has hit the exacta on the green in four of ten starts. MCCLUSKY will probably win this, as we don’t pick him on top like we normally do. Second out for new barn might help.
Fourth Race
1. Track Robber
2. Ready to Storm
3. Sir Bregovic
TRACK ROBBER has some speed and drops in class all for a very good barn. This gelding got a taste of winning four back and then reeled off two more wins. Team Pierce are 38% second off this type of layoff. We like that Amador gets a leg up. READY TO STORM got a solid Beyer off the layoff, even if never threatening. This closer gets some pace to chase and should be a good price. G Rod keeps the faith, while added half furlong has to help. SIR BREGOVIC drops in class for a high percentage barn. Never easy to ship to New Mexico and run well, so perhaps discount that recent start. Those local figs from 2, 3, and 4 back all fit.
Fifth Race
1. Narizon
2. Manzoni
3. Honeymoon Suite
NARIZON tried much tougher when last seen here. This gelding has a slew of local works and should be fully acclimated to here. His early zip and outside post go hand in hand. The blinkers go ON, and that is a 22% move for this barn. MANZONI didn’t get an early breather last out but still ran OK as the chalk. He tries this shortened sprint for the second time, and horses often improve the second time they do anything. Working out a good trip might be a little tricky. HONEYMOON SUITE is more speed. Back class is main selling point. Barn switch helps the price.
Sixth Race
1. Seattle Surf
2. Mom Says
3. Bottle Caps
SEATTLE SURF tried five furlongs for the first time two back and won as the chalk. He ran OK last out, but we have always thought that shipping in from New Mexico is tough. Second time here should be much better, and this horse cuts back a full furlong. Reyes stays put and this gelding gets off the rail. MOM SAYS has speed and draws inside. Other speed just doesn’t hurt as much when going this short. Third time with team Pierce should help and they often use Cruz (2 for 4). BOTTLE CAPS can pass runners and race flow is more than fair. A penchant for less is the main knock. MENDELSSOHNS MUSIC exits a key race where 2 of 3 returned to win with figs of 49 and 53.
Eighth Race
1. She’s So Shiny
2. Charmant E
3. Miss Accelerate
SHE’S SO SHINY may not have loved the green two, three, and four back. Her most recent was just better. She gets a more experienced rider today with Americano up. Full field helps all exotics, while tactical speed helps the trip. CHARMANT E didn’t fire off the layoff, but breaking 7th going only five furlongs did not help matters. Class drop might bring about a better try along with added furlong. Isn’t six furlongs her best distance? MISS ACCELERATE ran OK off the layoff when beating over half the field home at 35-1. Not sure what happened last out, but it helps the price. This mare has some speed and could get brave if forwardly placed.
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