Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Scott Ehlers handicaps the Thursday, January 15 racing card at Turfway Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 7.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Mischief Mania (7th race)
Seventh Race
1. Mischief Mania
2. Heartily
3. Silver Talisman
MISCHIEF MANIA draws the attack post for the distance and might trip out best. Team Sharp are 21% off the claim. That January 3rd work was 5th best of 134 and might tip hand. Race flow is fine. HEARTILY will try and be the main speed. His debut Beyer of 77 is hard to miss. Did something go awry in his last start hence the time off? This distance is no picnic off a layoff and this colt has yet to try this surface. With that said…hello, favorite. SILVER TALISMAN draws outside so a good trip is more likely than not. His debut came back when 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 64 and 72. First Lasix is a 24% move for this barn. We know this guy likes this distance and can fire fresh.
Here are Scott’s thoughts on the other eight races on Thursday’s Turfway Park card.
First Race
1. Need a Bit of Luck
2. Smokin Hot Wife
3. Le Bien Le Mal
NEED A BIT OF LUCK gets some pace to chase and draws more inside today. A poor start cost her off the layoff yet she still ran well and actually had the lead at the 1/8th pole before tiring. What if she moves forward off that effort? A recent work is fine as is second time this level. SMOKIN HOT WIFE didn’t do much in her most recent but that was her first for a new barn and her first here. Perhaps this 4YO is better sprinting? She figures a good trip as she drops in class. LE BIEN LE MAL did beat half the field home in her debut. Three of five sibs beat winners. Team Galindo-Torres are 17% with their sprinters. If all stay in then race flow is more than fair.
Second Race
1. Money Memolo
2. Shane Falco
3. Hurricane Express
MONEY MEMOLO ran a solid 2nd the last time he returned off a layoff and it came here at 12-1. He is better now. Race flow is acceptable if all stay in. This guy draws fine and has a slew of works over at Keeneland. SHANE FALCO didn’t do much in his two local starts but he is a more mature animal now. Team West are 24% with new runners. This 4YO should stalk a nice trip while saving all the early ground. HURRICANE EXPRESS has some speed but so do a few others. He has passed a runner before so maybe that is the way to go? This guy draws tons better and goes second time here. DISCOMBOBULAATOR exits a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 57 and 51 (two more finished 2nd with figs of 56 and 40).
Third Race
1. Jerseys Parade
2. Hi Barbie
3. Freak City
JERSEYS PARADE is 3-1-2-0 here and 6-0-0-0 anywhere else. She has some speed as jumps a level which helps the price. Regular rider tags along and race flow is fine. Oh, this mare can stalk a nice trip if needed. HI BARBIE did little off the layoff but that was her first start going that short. Second time with team McPeek along with a return to routing just has to help. Said barn are 19% going sprint to route (flat bet profit). FREAK CITY looks better if you discount those turf tries one and three back. This mare is proven here and drops in class. Outside post hurts a tad.
Fourth Race
1. Boys Code
2. Garden Leave
3. Leading
BOYS CODE did run better two and three back and that was on different surfaces. He beat half the field home previously and that was his first start here. Win rider returns while new barn is 21% off the claim. GARDEN LEAVE is a horse for course that has hit the exacta in three of four starts here. This gelding beat zero home in that dirt race at Penn but this guy has never run well on that surface (4-0-0-0). That race does help today’s price though. LEADING has solid figs before the long layoff. He puts races together and just won nicely on this surface. Race flow is fine and this barn is 15% with their repeating winners.
Fifth Race
1. Core Memories
2. Got Gone
3. Island Girl
Where is the speed in here? Exactly. CORE MEMORIES doesn’t hold a pace advantage but her A game is still best. She has tried nothing but turf routing to date and ran well in both. Team DeVaux add Lasix and that is a 30% move for them. Beschizza gets a leg up and is 2 for 2 for this barn locally. GOT GONE might want the front end. She comes in fresh and that might sharpen her speed a tad more. Two of four sibs beat winners and both won routing. Works are well spaced and the blinkers are removed. ISLAND GIRL has improved her Beyer in every start. Off the pace style hurts though. POLLY DARLING is by a 7% debut sire. Her dam went 5-1-0-1 and earned 30K. Lone sibling is 11-1-1-3 and earned 102K. LIVE LIFE exits a key race where 2 of 9 returned to win with figs of 57 and 51.
Sixth Race
1. Tikihut
2. Stay Beautiful
3. Cady Hill
TIKIHUT has a few decent tries but not all that much to write home about. Class drop is the next logical step. Team Sisterson are 2 for 5 with this move. Beschizza stays put and that might mean more than anything. Second time here can’t hurt. STAY BEAUTIFUL has some speed and comes in fresh. She draws fine and has a string of nice works. New barn is 1 for 4 with recent acquisitions. CADY HILL ran evenly in her debut and then simply tired some late. All in all a solid debut. Team Walsh are 15% with their 2nd time maidens and 23% going special weight to maiden claimers. Recent works are well spaced while new pilot is 31% for this barn here. CILICIA is by a 11% debut sire. Her dam went 15-5-1-2 and earned 795K (771K when routing). Three of seven sibs won with the best a multiple winner of 496K (334K when routing).
Eighth Race
1. Hilliard
2. Dawn Dragon
3. Warlander
HILLIARD has run well the last three times that he returned off a layoff. Team Maker are 27% off this type of layoff. This guy did run a nice second on this surface before the layoff (at 6-1…three back). Race flow is fine and this race came up good for the level. DAWN DRAGON has improved his Beyer in all of his starts. He just won for fun to break his maiden and now connections want 10 furlongs right back. Team Mott are 16% with their repeating winners. This colt doesn’t have to have the front end to run well. WARLANDER is a hard trier with some nice local works. That was a tough post last time out. This colt draws fine and goes for a high percentage barn.
Ninth Race
1. Channelview
2. American Summer
3. Ronilla
CHANNELVIEW has yet to break sharp but still ran OK in her first two starts. Trainer stats are good across the board including 28% with first Lasix horses. We like this outside draw going one turn. This filly is working down in Florida so showing up here especially for a 100K purse is telling. AMERICAN SUMMER is by a 15% debut sire. Her dam went 13-3-1-1 and earned 266K (won 2YO debut). This is her first foal. Bullet work on the 8th is a good omen. RONILLA broke 10th of 11 in her debut yet still rallied for fourth at 63-1. She has worked four times since. What if she improves second time racing? We think she gets forgotten on the tote and proves the value. CONQUERESS is by a 11% debut sire. Her dam went 6-2-1-0 and earned 77K. One of three sibs won but only once. CUE PIXIE DUST is by a 10% debut sire. Her dam went 4-0-0-0. Two of three sibs won including a multiple winner of 30K. showing tactical speed in both; she was behind HEAVENS EXPRESS in that last one but she was down inside and that may have been the worst part of the track on that day. MEGANTHEEBATTALION is easily forgiven for fading on the grass last time, as she had no chance with that trip against that race flow; will look to steal it and she could well be successful if she’s allowed to set her own pace on an unpressured lead.
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