Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Scott Ehlers handicaps the Thursday, January 22 racing card at Turfway Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 5.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Papas Lady (5th race)
Fifth Race
1. Papas Lady
2. Lets Shance It
3. Cove Spring
PAPAS LADY ran evenly in her debut and got needed race experience. We spy two sibs that were quite good and they earned 653K and one million dollars. This filly has worked twice since said debut and goes for a barn that is 22% with their 2nd time maidens. Added half furlong is yet another plus. Felix stays put and that rounds out the appeal. LETS SHANCE IT out ran her odds in her most recent when getting the show dough at 9-1. H Cappers will see that maiden claimer two back and hold it against this filly. They should not. Added half furlong might help this closer more than anyone. We see a hard trying filly with figs going in the right direction. COVE SPRING might be the value if near 10-1 morning line. Any horse that can debut going a mile on the grass and beat overt half the field home has some talent. She draws tons better today and now goes second time here. RHYTHM LADY is by a 5% debut sire. Her dam was un-raced. Of 5 sibs to race, 2 won but only once each. AWARDS CEREMONY is by a 12% debut sire. Her dam went 33-4-9-1 and earned 219K. One of two sibs won and is a multiple winner of 303K. PRESUMPTUOUS exits a key race where 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 72 and 84.
Here are Scott’s thoughts on the other eight races on Thursday’s Turfway Park card.
First Race
1. Whitelick Road
2. Lyric Street
3. Chinatown Girl
WHITELICK ROAD returns off the long layoff and that alone bothers us in the least. This filly has speed and finds a good spot to use it. We like how this filly often breaks well. Did you notice that this 4YO was unruly to load in her debut and that always hurts. Class drop off said long layoff makes sense. LYRIC STREET just ran well off the layoff and did so without an early breather. Is this filly just better going one turn? She adds a half furlong today and can stalk if needed. CHINATOWN GIRL tried this distance only two back and finished a solid 4th at 58-1. Her most recent was poor hence the return to an elongated sprint. Race flow is more than fair and this filly draws inside once again.
Second Race
1. Talent Show
2. Rose’s Wish
3. Night Cry
TALENT SHOW simply tired late in her most recent and that was her first start here. She cuts back a half furlong and finds a better spot all for a new barn that is 11% off the claim. This filly won two and four back and perhaps that bodes well for today. ROSE’S WISH is a hard trier that draws well and returns off the short freshening. Works are fine and this filly can get the distance. A good price to round out the appeal. NIGHT CRY was stuck in the 12 hole last out and just didn’t fire. This draw is tons better. Form cycle hints at better and perhaps this 5YO isn’t done improving.
Third Race
1. Liberty Bay
2. Romantic Lead
3. Great Sword
LIBERTY BAY goes for a top barn and lures Rodriguez. There is little pace in this race so a forward approach is more likely than not. This colt draws fine while connections find a logical spot to face winners for the first time. ROMANTIC LEAD exits a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 54 and 63. This gelding won’t be that far off whomever finds the front end and some of his best efforts have come doing that. This horse is often a good price and once again draws fine. GREAT SWORD just didn’t fire last out so now connections drop this guy way down. It was only three starts ago that this guy went favored and won on the green at Horseshoe Indy. An awkward start didn’t help matters two back. Some early tote action would be welcome. PERSONAL CREED exits a key race where 2 of 11 returned to win with figs of 72 and 62.
Fourth Race
1. Be Here
2. My Romeo Lima
3. Karlwithanarl
BE HERE returns off the freshening and with a new barn that is 25% off the claim. This guy draws fine and has won on this surface before. Race flow is more than fair as long as the 2 speeds stay in. MY ROMEO LIMA draws inside main pace foe and will try and steal this. That was a good try going short only two back. This guy never got a breather last out. Class drop is noted. KARLWITHANARL just likes it here. That was a solid try last out and now this guy figures more comfortable. New barn is 1 for 2 off the claim. Second time at this level can’t hurt. DADDY JUSTIFY exits a key race where 4 of 11 returned to win with figs of 85, 93, 78, and 68.
Sixth Race
1. Vino Rosato
2. I Made It
3. Sunny’s Flame
VINO ROSATO was marooned in the 12 hole off the layoff yet still ran well as the Luke warm favorite. This horse for course keeps Ramos and goes for a new barn that is 20% off the claim. Race flow is fine as long as the 3 speeds stay in. I MADE IT has shown speed before. This mare blew the start last out but still ran huge. Versatile style and second out for new barn just has to help. SUNNY’S FLAME is speed on the rail. Current form is sharp and the price figures square. This 4YO even has some upside. Other speed is the main worry.
Seventh Race
1. Petronella
2. Back Ring Buzz
3. Rip Current
PETRONELLA just won for fun when first here and now puts three races together so we know she is feeling great. She goes from the 10 hole to the rail so that is another positive. Team Walsh are 23% with their repeating winners and of course win rider stays put. BACK RING BUZZ gets back to two turns and does so for a good route barn. Second time on this synth can’t hurt and this filly draws fine. RIP CURRENT won going two turns in her debut and that is just tough. Connections now find a spot where this 3YO can’t be claimed. Recent works are just right while debut rider keeps the call. SPASTIC BID exits a key race where 2 of 4 returned to win with figs of 37 and 41.
Eighth Race
1. Strate Cash
2. Dr. Saikali
3. Mo Quality
STRATE CASH did win a turf sprint in his debut at Santa Anita and did so as the big chalk. This gelding blew the start in his second start and we haven’t seen him since. He returns as a gelding and has a string of works over at Keeneland. Drawing the attack post helps the trip. DR. SAIKALI is feeling great. He broke dead last in his most recent yet still finished 2nd at 17-1. Added half furlong helps, right? The only time this guy ran poorly was on a good sod three back at Keeneland. With a better break, a forward trip is more likely than not. MO QUALITY just loves an elongated sprint. That was a tough post last out yet this guy still beat over half the field home. He cuts back to favorite distance and picks up a new jockey in the process. HEDWIG exits a key race where 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 96 and 83.
Ninth Race
1. Miss Mo Magic
2. Santiana
3. Desperate Dreams
MISS MO MAGIC didn’t break well last out and was trying this synth for the first time. New barn wants the same distance right back and once again this guy draws favorably. First Lasix is a plus and this filly has speed if able to start well. SANTIANA ran evenly last out and now finds herself in a new barn that is 9% off the claim. This filly has speed which often comes in handy at this level. DESPERATE DREAMS hopped after the start so there is your excuse. The blinkers go ON and Lasix is added all for a horse that has gotten play in all four starts. Second time here and second time at this level just has to help. LADY VIV exits a key race where 2 of 4 returned to win with figs of 45 and 41. TRULY AUTHENTIC is by a 9% debut sire. Her dam was un-raced. Three sibs failed to win. WILL BELIEVE is by a 5% debut sire. Her dam went 20-5-4-0 and earned 158K. Lone sib is 13-1-1-2 and earned 19K. the track on that day. MEGANTHEEBATTALION is easily forgiven for fading on the grass last time, as she had no chance with that trip against that race flow; will look to steal it and she could well be successful if she’s allowed to set her own pace on an unpressured lead.
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