Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Scott Ehlrers handicaps the Wednesday, March 18 racing card at Turfway Park, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 9.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Prime Edge (9th race)
Ninth Race
1. Prime Edge
2. Dienekes
3. Up Country
PRIME EDGE has improved his Beyer in every start. He puts races together for the first time. He goes second time here and second time two turns. His distance Tommy of 381 hints at route ability. Two of three sibs beat winners and they earned 253K/152K. Team Carroll are 16% second off this type of layoff. DIENEKES ran evenly in his debut, even though he didn’t get much play. Added distance is what we like best. Five of six sibs beat winners, while the outlier is 1 for 1. Team Morey are 22% with their second-time starters and 15% going sprint to route. A more experienced rider gets a leg up. UP COUNTRY gets the double whammy of blinkers and new gelding. Those Beyers in the 80’s before the layoff are hard to miss. Trainer stats are good across the board, while second time here can’t hurt. Are we sure this horse likes the synth though? CULTURE WAR exits a key race where 3 of 9 returned to win with figs of 82, 75, and 60. MIGHTY MIKE exits a key race where 2 of 7 returned to win with figs of 82 and 76.
Here are Scott’s thoughts on the other nine races on Wednesday’s Turfway Park card.
First Race
1. Time Leap
2. Rhaenys
3. Cotillard
TIME LEAP tried a tough 6 1/2 panels off the layoff and beat over half the field home. We like this half furlong cut back along with second time here. Everyone gets a good trip in this short field. Team Danner are 16% second off this type of layoff. RHAENYS likes the turf, therefore he might enjoy the synth. She draws nicely and has won sprinting before. Recent works are well spaced. COTILLARD drops in class. This filly gets off the rail but only gets an OK pace to chase. Does this horse even like here?
Second Race
1. Lackadaisical
2. Crystal Frost
3. In for a Spin
LACKADAISICAL is by a 15% debut sire. Her dam went 4-0-0-0 and earned 3K. Lone sib is 3-1-0-0 and earned 49K. That recent work might tip hand, as it was 2nd best of 112. CRYSTAL FROST ran well two and three back. Was that a third-race bounce last out? That race came back key when 2 of 3 returned to win with figs of 51 and 69. Tactical speed helps the trip, while class drop hard to miss. IN FOR A SPIN ran better off the layoff and now goes second time here. Team Caramori are 25% second off this type of layoff. ST. GILGEN is by a 12% debut sire. Her dam went 12-6-2-3 and earned 353K (won 2YO debut). Lone sib is 3-1-0-0 and earned 76K. OATH is by a 8% debut sire. Her dam went 4-0-2-0 and earned 18K. Two sibs are a combined 2-0-1-0 and earned 25K. MARKET STRATEGY is by a 9% debut sire. Her dam went 14-2-1-2 and earned 31K. Of 3 sibs to race, 2 won and both beat winners (104K and 108K). LATE NIGHT STORM is by a 3% debut sire. Her dam went 17-1-3-1 and earned 24K. All 5 sibs won and all 5 beat winners (383K, 89K, 39K, 64K, and 166K).
Third Race
1. Hilliard
2. Shankar
3. Pilkington
HILLIARD didn’t fire last out and breaking tardy had to hurt. He returns right on time and now cuts back to 8 1/2 furlongs. Class drop is the great equalizer and not uncommon for a big barn like this. SHANKAR will certainly get the jump on our top pick. He likes this surface and goes third out for this barn. Here is another class dropper but one that has a shot at the front end. PILKINGTON is the best of the rest. Local tab is fine and a possible soft pace might help.
Fourth Race
1. Vino Rosato
2. Night Cry
3. King’s Legacy
VINO ROSATO got a nice confidence boost last out and did so at 7-1. She got a solid pace that day, but this might be better as we count three speed horses in here. This mare just adores this surface, where she has hit the exacta in seven of ten starts. Lone knock is that this barn is 0 for 9 with their repeating winners (small sample size though). NIGHT CRY just ran better and can pass runners. She is often double digits and even draws better after being stuck in the 10 hole last out. KING’S LEGACY gets to save all the early ground and wants to pass runners. She puts three races together and has won on this surface before.
Fifth Race
1. Vulcan’s Boots
2. Taunting
3. Marshal
VULCAN’S BOOTS didn’t fire off the layoff, but those optional foes are a handful, and this colt didn’t get a ton of play when sent off at 13-1. A pair of recent works is just right while the class drop is big. Team Danner are 16% second off this type of layoff. TAUNTING ran well just before the layoff, but not so much off the freshening. We bet that race didn’t take much out of him. This colt was running well on the sod at Hawthorne not that long ago. Recent works are fine, and the blinkers come off to help shake things up a bit. A better price than many in here, we would think. MARSHAL has speed, but so do a few others. He does have some upside and the ability to stalk. He draws fine and now puts four races together. This colt cost 600K, and recent efforts are just better. Working out a good trip could be a bit tricky though.
Sixth Race
1. Miss Susan B
2. Canterbury Lane
3. Surprenant Cocca
MISS SUSAN B is feeling great. She has done all of her winning on this surface at 9-2-3-0. She puts route races back-to-back and should get a soft pace like her most recent. CANTERBURY LANE has speed and could easily find the front end, where an early breather awaits. Her most recent speaks for itself, and now she goes second time here. New barn is part of the mix, and they are 0 for 8 off the claim. Nice to see win rider get a leg up. SURPRENANT COCCA found the front end in her most recent and got an early breather but couldn’t quite hold on. Is she better with a target? That won’t be a problem today if so.
Seventh Race
1. Law and Disorder
2. Coda Mia
3. Gold Lady
LAW AND DISORDER can fire fresh as she won her debut at Prairie Meadows. Did something go awry in her second start, hence the time off? Team Anderson are 33% off this type of layoff. First Lasix can only help while jockey/trainer combo a nice 25%. CODA MIA has some speed to help the trip, but so do a few others. Maybe the half furlong cut back helps a stalking trip? This mare has hit the board in three of four local tries. GOLD LADY can pass horses and gets good race all at what might be a nice price. She draws fine and gets back to win distance. DAN’S CANDI GIRL exits a key race where 2 of 5 returned to win with figs of 74 and 58.
Eighth Race
1. Gun Factor
2. Banidoso
3. Slink
GUN FACTOR is speed plus. He hasn’t been headed at the first call in his last six dirt starts. If this horse does indeed clear off, then he turns the other speeds into off-the-pace runners, something many might not like. The rail draw is fine as this horse often breaks sharp. Form cycle hints at better as he puts three races together. Wire please. BANIDOSO will try and chase our top pick around the track. He has passed a runner before, and if our top pick tires, then he should get first run. SLINK gets off the rail, puts three races together, and gets good race flow. Recent figs are better, and the price might entice.
Tenth Race
1. Global Tour
2. Ocean Windows
3. Midnight Mary
GLOBAL TOUR broke her maiden and then beat first-time winners at Horseshoe Indy, and didn’t break great in either. She draws best today and figures a good price. We like how she showed improved front speed before said layoff. Works are solid. OCEAN WINDOWS just ran a little better and now puts three races together. Did she learn to pass runners last out? Added half furlong is what we like best as this filly just likes it at 3-2-0-1. MIDNIGHT MARY has speed. Her most recent was better, and now she goes second time for new barn. An early breather would go a long way.
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