2024 Kentucky Oaks Predictions
Prior to the Run for the Roses, the Fillies will run for the Lillies at Churchill Downs in the 2024 Kentucky Oaks. This is such a special year in Louisville, as it will be the 150th running of both the Kentucky Derby and the Oaks.
This is a loaded field for the Oaks, both in terms of the number of runners and the depth of competition. Fourteen fillies are set to hit the starting gate for the 5:51 p.m. ET post time on Friday, May 3.
| Post | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Odds |
| SCR | Tapit Jenallie | E. Milligan | E. Esquivel | 30-1 |
| 2 | Gin Gin | B. Cox | F. Geroux | 30-1 |
| 3 | Where’s My Ring | V. Brinkerhoff | J. Lezcano | 15-1 |
| 4 | Regulatory Risk | C. Brown | J. Ortiz | 20-1 |
| 5 | Thorpedo Anna | K. McPeek | B. Hernandez Jr. | 5-1 |
| 6 | Lemon Muffin | D. Lukas | K. Asmussen | 30-1 |
| 7 | Fiona’s Magic | M. Yates | L. Saez | 30-1 |
| 8 | Tarifa | B. Cox | F. Prat | 7-2 |
| 9 | Everland | E. Foster | A. Cedillo | 30-1 |
| 10 | Into Champagne | I. Wilkes | J. Leparoux | 30-1 |
| 11 | Ways and Means | C. Brown | T. Gaffalione | 5-1 |
| 12 | Power Squeeze | J. Delgado | D. Centeno | 12-1 |
| 13 | Just F Y I | W. Mott | J. Alvarado | 9-2 |
| 14 | Leslie’s Rose | T. Pletcher | I. Ortiz Jr. | 4-1 |
| 15 | Our Pretty Woman | S. Asmussen | J. Rosario | 16-1 |
| AE | Candied | T. Pletcher | L. Saez |
8 Tarifa was the morning line favorite after the draw, narrowly edging out 14 Leslie’s Rose and 13 Just F Y I. With almost a week’s worth of betting action thanks to the earlier draw this year, we’ll see how the odds shift with a strong field ready to run on Friday night. A couple of big-name trainers in Steve Asmussen and Todd Pletcher are also on the outside looking in with a couple of potential contenders in the event of scratches.
Here are some thoughts on the horses and we’ll put together a $100 bet ticket at the end for the 2024 Kentucky Oaks:
SCR. Tapit Jenallie (30-1): The daughter of Tapit and Take Charge had a huge speed figure in her maiden back in September at Remington Park, but hasn’t been able to replicate it since. She was second in the Grade 3 Honeybee to Lemon Muffin, a fellow 30-1 shot on the morning line and ran a game third at the G3 Fantasy at Oaklawn in her final Oaks tune-up. She’s billed as a closer, so maybe the rail post isn’t a bad thing, but her lack of performance and low speed figures certainly are.
Author’s edit: Tapit Jenallie has been scratched.
2. Gin Gin (30-1): A powerhouse team of trainer Brad Cox and rider Florent Geroux could get Gin Gin to the board on Friday. Cox and Geroux teamed up for the winner in 2018 with Monomoy Girl and 2020 with Shedaresthedevil. A chance of rain in the early forecast for Monday could be helpful for this filly, as her only stakes win came in the mud at Aqueduct in the Busanda. She’s finished third in the Busher and G3 Gazelle since, but she was a distant third to Where’s My Ring and Regulatory Risk in that April 6 race. On the plus side, she has run at 1 ⅛ miles twice in her career. There are a lot of factors that go into rider selection, but it is interesting to see Geroux on Cox’s Gin Gin as opposed to Cox’s favorite in Tarifa, where Flavien Prat draws the mount.
3. Where’s My Ring (15-1): The Gazelle Stakes winner is the most interesting of the long shots. Where’s My Ring has a pretty incredible bloodline as the daughter of seven-time winner and five-time stakes winner Twirling Candy and Mapit, a mare by way of Tapit. Val Brinkerhoff’s three-year-old filly shined in her first race at 1 ⅛ miles with that Gazelle triumph as the 5-2 favorite. After stalking the pace along the rail for the first three-quarters, she went to the outside and simply dusted the field, getting stronger as the finish line approached.
I certainly like her to hit the board for exotics and think she should be under consideration to win.
4. Regulatory Risk (20-1): It was Regulatory Risk who finished a distant second to Where’s My Ring in the Gazelle. The Omaha Beach and Walkwithapurpose filly won a muddy maiden just before the New Year before finishing fifth and second at Aqueduct in the Busher and Gazelle. She actually ran her first race at Churchill and finished sixth back in September. Chad Brown has never won the Oaks. If he’s going to this year, it likely won’t be with Regulatory Risk, though he does have 2019 winner Jose Ortiz in the mount after his victory on Serengeti Empress.
5. Thorpedo Anna (5-1): Despite decades of success with all kinds of horses, especially fillies, trainer Kenneth McPeek is looking for his first Oaks win. He’s had multiple places, including one with Swiss Skydiver, who went on to beat the boys in the 2020 Preakness Stakes. McPeek has suggested a potential run with Thorpedo Anna against the colts, which gives you an idea of what he thinks of her. She’s won three of her four races and sat out a while after finishing second in the G2 Golden Rod, only to burst onto the scene again with a comfortable win in the 1 1/16 mile Fantasy at Oaklawn in March.
Thorpedo Anna’s win in the Fantasy was like watching a pitcher casually throw 100 mph with minimal effort. She stalked the pace and then ran away from the field without much of a push from rider Brian Hernandez Jr. It wasn’t the strongest field, but nobody was beating her that day.
6. Lemon Muffin (30-1): 88-year-old D. Wayne Lukas has one shot in this year’s field and it is Lemon Muffin, who won the G3 Honeybee at Oaklawn in February at 28-1 and finished a disappointing seventh in the Fantasy a month later. Lukas is a five-time winner of this race, most recently in 2022 with Secret Oath and Luis Saez in the mount. This is a strong field on both sides of Lemon Muffin, which means she’s likely to get bumped to the back early in the race and would have to close really strong to be a factor.
7. Fiona’s Magic (30-1): Speaking of Saez, he draws the irons here atop Fiona’s Magic for trainer Michael Yates. Questions surround this filly, as she ran extremely well in the Davona Dale, besting Into Champagne and Leslie’s Rose in that early March race. Then she was a complete non-factor in the G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks four weeks later, where all three horses on the board are in this Kentucky Oaks field. The rider in the Gulfstream Oaks was Jorge Ruiz and he pulled her back really early after it was clear she didn’t have enough gas in the tank to challenge the top runners. Could Saez get more out of her? Of the 30-1 shots, she’s the most intriguing with the rider change, especially since an experienced rider like Tyler Gaffalione got the most out of her for the Davona Dale win.
That Davona Dale race only had six horses, though, and she struggled with traffic in the Gulfstream Oaks, so that’s something to watch here.
8. Tarifa (7-2): The morning line favorite after post draw could be building towards a really big run. Her maiden at Keeneland last year was one of the top speed performances of the year for a filly, but her only run at Churchill Downs resulted in a fourth-place finish. That’s also the only time she hasn’t won, as she went to Fair Grounds this year and swept three races, including the G2 Rachel Alexandra and G2 Fair Grounds Oaks.
Godolphin finally broke through in this race last year with Pretty Mischievous and will look to do so again here with the daughter of Bernardini. Rider Flavien Prat has never won the Oaks, but trainer Brad Cox is a two-time winner and this is a strong contender. She has not run at 1 â…› miles yet, though, and none of the runners from her two wins are in the Oaks field, even though it was a G2 race.
9. Everland (30-1): Mystery surrounds Everland, who will run on dirt for the first time in her career after a win on the synthetic surface in the Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway Park. The daughter of 2016 Breeders’ Cup champion Arrogate and lightly-raced turf runner Ever Changing has a terrific bloodline, but these are not ideal circumstances. Arrogate’s successes are not necessarily going to be Everland’s, but she has won three of her last four races.
10. Into Champagne (30-1): Into Mischief has been busier as a sire than he was as a racehorse and yet another one of his offspring will run in a stakes race here with Into Champagne for trainer Ian Wilkes and jockey Julien Leparoux. Two short-track wins fed into a second in the Davona Dale and a third in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, but this is an even longer distance with a much deeper field. Stamina is a huge concern here. Don’t be surprised if she’s stalking or setting the pace at the quarter or even half, but be surprised if she’s still among the leaders when jockeys are really pushing the gas pedal.
11. Ways and Means (5-1): Chad Brown had the favorite in the Gulfstream Park Oaks and a favorite of 1-2 no less in Ways and Means. That was with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the driver’s seat and she came up short to 11-1 shot Power Squeeze at the end. It was the first race in over six months for the lightly-run filly, but her reputation preceded her into that race. Her reputation seems to precede her here as well, as she drew a 5-1 morning line in an excellent field off of a loss as a 1-2 favorite with only three data points to her name. I think she’s the toughest horse in the field to handicap.
12. Power Squeeze (12-1): The aforementioned Power Squeeze, winner of the Gulfstream Park Oaks, will run it back with the team of jockey Daniel Centeno and trainer Jorge Delgado. Power Squeeze has won four races in a row, with her best performance in her longest race back on March 30 in that Gulfstream showing. Father Union Rags was the 2012 Belmont Stakes winner at 1 ½ miles and hit the board in three additional high-profile stakes races, including a win in the 2012 Fountain of Youth. Mare Callmethesqueeze was a 1 1/16 mile winner three times in her career.
In other words, the bloodlines point towards a horse that likes distance running and she’ll get exactly that here. Her speed numbers are lacking, but her impressive closing effort in the Gulfstream Park Oaks at Centeno’s request sure points to a jockey who knows he can make a move later than most.
13. Just F Y I (9-2): The daughter of Justify went 3-for-3 in 2023 before an extended layoff over the winter. She came back for one tune-up race and finished second in the G1 Ashland Stakes for trainer Bill Mott. I guess I buried the lead, as one of those 2023 wins came in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Santa Anita. Not only are the results there, but so is the bloodline with the Triple Crown winner Justify, one of the most impressive horses ever, and mare Star Act, a stakes runner on turf. Grandmother Starrer won the Santa Maria and Santa Margarita stakes races back in 2003 on dirt and at distance.
Her run in the Ashland was not the most efficient trip for Junior Alvarado, who was bottled up into the final turn and went outside and then inside to try and run down Leslie’s Rose, who had a much cleaner trip.
14. Leslie’s Rose (4-1): The other Into Mischief filly in this race is the second favorite, as Leslie’s Rose comes from the far outside post, barring any scratches. After a couple sprint wins, she made her stakes debut in the Davona Dale and finished third with a rather disappointing performance, but she bounced back in a big way for that Ashland victory in her first Kentucky race. She goes from Keeneland to Churchill Downs, but she was easily the best over the last quarter mile in the Ashland and she’ll get an additional eighth of a mile here with which to run.
Trainer Todd Pletcher is a five-time winner of the Oaks, with the most recent in 2021 thanks to Malathaat. This will be Irad Ortiz Jr.’s fifth ride on Leslie’s Rose and he may have cracked the code with a better trip in her second stakes race.
15. Our Pretty Woman: If there are any scratches, the first Also Eligible is Our Pretty Woman for Steve Asmussen and Joel Rosario. She could be feisty if she gets in, as the lightly-run filly has won twice and finished second in her stakes debut to Oaks favorite Tarifa. All three of her runs have come at over a mile in distance and the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro will be a legitimate threat if she gets in.
Author’s edit: With Tapit Jenallie scratched, Our Pretty Woman is in the field.
AE. Candied: A second scratch would push Candied into the field off of a fourth-place finish in the Ashland. The Pletcher filly had Luis Saez in the mount for the Ashland and he’s currently slated to ride Fiona’s Magic, so keep an eye on that if Candied does draw in. The daughter of Candy Ride ran a game third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last year and then took a five-month hiatus before that Ashland Stakes trot. She also won a G1 stakes at Keeneland last year in the Alciblades. She’s an interesting alternate in that shaking off the rust in the Ashland might lead to a big run here. Keep her name in mind for the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes prior to the Preakness or the Acorn Stakes before the Belmont.
Picks for the 2024 Kentucky Oaks
Using a $100 budget for the race, here’s what I’m looking at.
$20 Win: 5 Thorpedo Anna ($20)
$10 Win: 3 Where’s My Ring & 14 Leslie’s Rose ($20)
$4 Win: 12 Power Squeeze ($4)
$10 Exacta: Key 5 with 3, 14 ($20)
$3 Exacta Box: 3/5/12/14 ($36)
