Daily Racing Form handicappers Ashley Mailloux and Nicole Russo preview the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland in Lexington, Ky.
The Ashland Stakes carries a $750,000 purse and a 5:16 p.m. Eastern post, with 100 points to the winner as part of the final round of 200-point qualifying preps for the Kentucky Oaks. Mailloux and Russo both side with the 4-5 morning-line favorite Zany, with Russo noting that Percy’s Bar remains a live alternative.
The horse to beat: No. 3 Zany
Zany, trained by Todd Pletcher and undefeated through three career starts, enters as the 4-5 morning-line favorite and was the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager favorite when that pool closed March 15. Russo points to a key form endorsement: Life of Joy, the filly Zany defeated in her most recent start Feb. 7, came back to win the Fair Grounds Oaks. “If she takes a step forward, I think that’s scary,” Russo says, noting Zany still has room to grow with limited experience.
Mailloux addresses the greenness directly: “She’s been a little bit green in those races. She’ll need to mature, especially approaching that first Friday in May. But she’s just been so strong.”
Both handicappers land on Zany as their top selection, and Russo says a win here could cement her status as the Oaks favorite four weeks out.
The main threat: No. 2 Percy’s Bar
Percy’s Bar, trained by Ben Colebrook with Luan Machado riding, arrives without a prep after a Kentucky winter disrupted her training schedule. She technically crossed the wire first in a Grade 1 at Keeneland last fall but was disqualified, with Tommy Jo elevated to the win. She then ran third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies – a race in which Russo says she took the worst of the traffic trouble in the lane and fought on well to finish third.
Russo rates Percy’s Bar as a legitimate Grade 1 filly at both one turn and two and says connections have been trying to hold her back in morning training, with bullet workouts coming steadily. But she believes Percy’s Bar may just need the race, and that tipped the scales toward Zany. “I picked Zany despite my respect for Percy’s Bar,” Russo says, adding that if Zany goes off at a very short price, Percy’s Bar is a legitimate alternative.
Mailloux also places her second, making Percy’s Bar the consensus exacta partner.
The upside play: No. 7 Star Actress
Star Actress, trained by Bill Mott with Junior Alvarado riding, won first time going two turns in her most recent start March 15, and Mailloux notes the fillies from her debut have gone on to produce solid figures in subsequent wins.
Russo points to her pedigree by Justify as a reason to expect more. “There’s a lot of upside with this filly,” Russo says.
Both handicappers place Star Actress third.
The handicappers’ verdict
Ashley Mailloux’s picks
No. 3 Zany
No. 2 Percy’s Bar
No. 7 Star Actress
Nicole Russo’s picks
No. 3 Zany
No. 2 Percy’s Bar
No. 7 Star Actress
Watch for more thoughts on this race from Ashley and Nicole:
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