Keeneland Picks for Saturday, April 12 from Mike Somich:
We enter this weekend with our final Kentucky Derby points on the line. While they are most likely going to go by the wayside since the 20 points to the winner will not be enough to get into the gate in Kentucky, I do expect at least two of these runners to end up in the Preakness. Thorpedo Anna also returns to the track on Saturday in the Grade One Apple Blossom. I will not cover that race, but I do like the cold 6-3-7 trifecta there to try to get some value out of the reigning horse of the year.
Lexington Stakes, Keeneland, Race #9
While these horses are unlikely to end up at Churchill, I do think we can learn something from the results. #3 Bullard ships in from California for trainer Mike McCarthy, who also trains Derby favorite Journalism, to try to step forward toward a possible Preakness run. He has been begging to go two turns since stepping up into graded stakes, so the added distance should be a plus today. While he will not make the lead, he should not have too much ground to make up turning for home, and I love the 9/2 price.Â
#7 Praetor is your morning line favorite at 2-1 and a key horse in the Preakness. We have seen trainer Chad Brown use this as a prep for Pimlico in the past. Praetor likely needs one more race before stepping up into the big time. He romped in his only start this year against lesser company at Gulfstream and will need to improve to win, but he is bred to love more ground and should be forwardly placed on a speed-favoring Keeneland track.
To his inside, #6 Gosger will also be gunning it early up front. He enters the race of a maiden win over Pitkin, who came back to disappoint in his last start. Gosger is the most logical leader. If he gets loose, he is dangerous.
I’ve decided I am going to quit #8 Hypnus off a horrible Louisiana Derby effort where I selected him on top. He got the dream set up that day with an abundance of pace and still did not close a lick. This field is a step down in class, but I need to see more from Hypnus before I put my hard-earned money on his nose.
Top 4: 3-7-6-8
The Bet: $50 to Win #3
Jenny Wiley Stakes, Keeneland, Race #10
The European horses have invaded for the first time this year, and they brought some runners to the US. You have to start with #1 Excellent Truth, who will run for the first time for trainer Chad Brown. While she is not a true invader (she is trained by an American trainer), she has never run over North American turf before. Last time we saw her, she was in a very competitive Group 1 race in France where she ran a game second. That was about nine months ago. She has had ample time in the Brown barn and should fire her best shot off the bench. She is the one to beat.
#6 Jabaara is very interesting to me. She was not great in her seasonal debut, but she still jumped on a plane to run in this spot. While she lost, she did run a career best effort in her first start at four, and she’s improved the second time out in both her previous years. She is the second-best shipper.
When you are trying to beat a favorite like Excellent Truth, the best way is normally to have the opposite style. That is what US-based #7 Kehoe Beach brings to the travel. It will be pedal to the metal from the word go, and there is not much other speed in this spot. It is highly likely that she takes the lead into the stretch and, much like the Keeneland dirt, speed is playing well over this turf course.
While I am not in love with #2 Choisya, you cannot completely discount her off back-to-back wins in Meydan. While the competition is a step below Group company in Europe, she was still impressive in both starts at 5. I cannot play her at the morning line price of 4-1, but she is not without a chance.
Top 4: 1-7-6-2
The Bet: $50 Win #1 / $5 Tri 1,7/1,6,7/1,6,7
Spot Bets
Keeneland Race #8 – $50 Win #2
Keeneland Race #5 – $50 Win #10
