Mike Somich’s Keeneland Picks:
We are headed back to Keeneland for another Saturday of racing action! The QEII is the big stakes on today’s card, featuring a couple of horses pointing to the Breeders’ Cup, which runs in less than a month at Del Mar! Let’s look at today’s Keeneland picks.
QEII Stakes, Race #8, Keeneland
#3 She Feels Pretty will be your favorite when they head to post today, which means it’s a great opportunity to make some money. It isn’t that I dislike her overall, but she has not improved in three straight starts and faces a group with some serious upside here.
#5 Soprano is one of two European invaders here, and she brings her regular jockey with her from across the pond. She is very accomplished in Europe, with a Group 3 win and multiple Group placings while running against some of the best three-year-old fillies the continent offers. The one major knock on her is she will be coming from the back, but the extra distance today should allow her to be a little closer than normal and improve the trip.
#9 Grayosh is one of two Chad Brown entries in this spot, a race he has dominated in the past, and is the horse with the most upside. She was an upset winner last time out at Saratoga, knocking off She Feels Pretty, and has every right to improve in this spot. If she does, she is very dangerous. The price is right at 8-1.
The other Euro shipper is the #10 Candala. She does not have quite the track record of Soprano, but she has been competitive and going longer in her last two Group stakes. The cutback today should help her, and she has improved in each start since the freshening early this year. She’s one to watch if you are playing exactas and trifectas.
Keeneland Picks: 5-9-10-3
Bets:
$50 Win #5
$10 Exacta Box 5,9
80k N2X Allowance, Race #9, Keeneland
And finally, #5 Parchment Party returns to the track for trainer Bill Mott! This horse was one of the Derby favorites late last year but has not raced since November 9th, 2023. That day, he made his career record 2 for 2 with an off-the-pace romp in what has turned out to be a key race. There is enough pace signed on today that he should be able to show off his late kick, but the big question is the layoff. Mott wins at nearly 20% in these spots, so I expect him to be ready to roll.
#7 Ben Franklin is one of my favorite prices of the day at 15-1. He has shown some speed in the past, but he clearly did not like the rail in his first race off a layoff at Churchill last start. He has never been over 6.8-1 when breaking from the gate, that was a stakes race, and consistently faced this level of company. With the right trip, he’s right in this.
#2 Elusive Talent is an interesting horse to handicap. He has been claimed in three of his last four races being traded between two trainers. Lost in all that shuffle is that he has won his last two dirt races and hit the exacta in four of the last five. If you cross out the two turf efforts that muddy up his form, then the 15-1 price seems like a gift.
#10 Baton Rouge is the speedball that will look to go right to the front. The other main speed is drawn directly to his outside, so it will be a race to see who can get the lead on the first turn. I’ll side with the horse to the inside and see if he can slow it down afterward and try to take this field gate to wire.
Keeneland Picks: 5-7-2-10
Bets: $5 Trifecta 5,7 / 2,5,7 / 2,5,7,10
Spot Plays –
Keeneland Race #7: $50 Win #9
Keeneland Race #10: $50 Win #1
