Mr. Ed’s Keeneland Picks for Thursday, April 10:
YESTERDAY’S NEWS: Wednesday was a fickle day of racing at Keeneland with a longshot ($110) winning Race 2, followed by a bargain-basement winner ($3) in Race 3. And, there were several other high-priced winners. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. was the leading rider with a pair of winners, while no trainer or other jockey had more than a single winner. The inflated $2 Win ticket paid a whopping $38.10. Mr. Ed finally woke up with a chalky score early on the card and a $100 Exacta on a $5 ticket in the feature race.
EARLY LOOK AT KENTUCKY DERBY: With the Run for the Roses a little more than three weeks down the road (Saturday, May 3), it isn’t too early to post Mr. Ed’s probable top 10 contenders (with a leg up from Horse Racing Nation):
- JOURNALISM — Santa Anita Derby winner; very fast out west
- SOVEREIGNTY — Florida Derby runner-up; Mott-Franco tough duo
- BURNHAM SQUARE — stretch run wins Blue Grass; Mr. Ed quit on gelding
- COAL BATTLE — third in Arkansas Derby for low-profile barn
- FINAL GAMBIT — best of three contenders for sharp Brian Cox
- TAPPAN STREET — Florida Derby winner for Cox-L. Saez team
- CHANCER McPATRICK — dull Blue Grass has Mr. Ed looking elsewhere
- CITIZEN BULL — best of Baffert barn disappointed in SA Derby
- SANDMAN — surprise Arkansas Derby score; M. Casse, J. Ortiz team up
- OWEN ALMIGHTY — far behind in Blue Grass cause for concern
MR ED’S ANALYSIS: Shaping up as below-average, very competitive contest. As a recovering journalist, I’m skeptical regarding the quality of the field; taking a third look at Burnham Square after Blue Grass triumph. Take a look at Louisiana Derby winner Tiztastic, longshot for Asmussen. He merits consideration.
TODAY AT KEENELAND: Mr. Ed tackles another weak, mid-week card. Rain expected Thursday and Friday. Riders to watch: With Tyler Gaffalione and Luis Saez (might return Friday) injured, keep an eye on underappreciated riders Brian Hernandez Jr. and Ben Curtis. The first race goes to post at 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT. Here’s a look at Mr. Ed’s selections.
Mr. Ed’s Selections at Keeneland for Thursday, April 10
Race 1 (1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT) — $90K MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT for 2YOs going 4 ½ furlongs
Mr. Ed likes duo for sprint-master Wesley Ward, #3 ASHKENAZI (4-1 morning line) and #7 DOUBLE TALKER (4-1). Morning drills indicate both are ready for debut.
Race 2 (1:32 p.m. ET/10:32 a.m. PT) — $49K CLAIMING for 3YOs & Up going 6 ½ furlongs
Mr. Ed has two: #9 NO NO JOE (3-1 morning line) from low-profile conditioner Alexis Claire, who attracts top rider Jose Ortiz; #12 VIA DELLA SPIGA, another sprinter from Ward outfit with HOF jockey Johnny Velazquez.
KEENELAND PICK: $5 Daily Doubles of 3,7/9,12. ($20)
Race 3 (2:04 pm. ET/11:04 a.m. PT) — $55K STARTER ALLOWANCE for fillies and mares, 3YOs & Up going 6 furlongs
My choice is #1 OPEN SOUL AUTISM (6-1 morning line) for new trainer Peter Miller who hires Irad Ortiz Jr. I also like #3 BOURBON BREEZE (3-1) with Flavien Prat on board, and #6 BEELIEVE HER (2-1), a speedy gal returning from break with up-and-comer Ben Curtis riding.
KEENELAND PICK: $5 EXACTA BOX. ($30)
Race 4 (2:36 p.m. ET/11:36 a.m. PT) — $110K MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT for 3YOs & Up going 5 ½ furlongs on turf
Mr. Ed likes #6 BRIGHT SKITTLE (5-2 morning line) for Bill Mott off claim and Flavien Prat. Tough combo. Sprinter has shown potential in each of three starts. Cutback key to Win today.
KEENELAND PICK: $10 to Win. ($10)
Race 7 (4:12 p.m. ET/1:12 p.m. PT) — $120K ALLOWANCE for fillies and mares, 4YOs & Up going 1 1/16-mile
My play is #3 PRIDES CROSSING (6-1 morning line) for top trainer Chad Brown, who trusts low-profile rider Christian Torres to get $1.3 million daughter of Quality Road to the Winner’s Circle. My best of day.
KEENELAND PICK: $20 to Win. ($20)
Race 8 (4:44 p.m. ET/1:44 p.m. PT) — $130K ALLOWANCE for fillies and mares, 4YOs & Up going 5 ½ furlongs on turf
Mr. Ed likes a trio to run 1,2,3.: #1 ULTIMATE READY (4-1 morning line) for HOFer Mott and super rider Flavien Prat; #2 DON’T SAY IT (9-2) for Brad Cox to repeat Fair Grounds come-from-behind score, and #6 GOLDEN HOSTESS (3-1) who drops in class for Graham Motion outfit.
KEENELAND PICK: $5 Exacta Box. ($30)
TOTAL WAGERS: $110
BOURBON BLAST: Friday is one of my favorite days at Keeneland as the track hosts two major events: (1) the prestigious G1 Maker’s Mark Mile and (2) College Scholarship Day. Combine the two and you have thousands of inebriated 20-somethings in sundresses and/or bow ties. From my third-floor perch, Mr. Ed enjoys watching the mob scene below while sipping his Maker’s Mark. A good time is seemingly had by all, youthful students and hardcore old punters like Mr. Ed. FYI: The 10-race card goes to post at 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT with the featured G1 $650K Maker’s Mark Mile starting at 5:16 p.m. ET/2:16 p.m. PT. Mr. Ed will return with his exclusive VSiN selections, including the MMM.
