Lexington Stakes 2025
The Road to the Kentucky Derby wraps up on Saturday with the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland. While this is technically part of the Road to the Derby, none of the horses in this field are expected to be in the starting gate at Churchill Downs for the Run for the Roses, but we could have a Preakness Stakes contender or two in this field.
With no chance to accumulate enough Derby points, two of the entries for this race, Rolando and Touchy, ran in the Lafayette Stakes on Monday and will likely be scratched. That leaves us with nine entries, but only seven probables, for this race and this feels like a scouting session for Pimlico about five weeks from now.
Here are the Lexington Stakes entries, odds, jockeys, and trainers:
| Post | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Odds |
| 1 | Hard as Life | M. Nihei | S. Doyle | 30-1 |
| 2 | Bracket Buster | V. Oliver | M. Franco | 20-1 |
| 3 | Bullard | M. McCarthy | U. Rispoli | 9-2 |
| 4 | Rolando | F. Gutierrez | J. Velazquez | 6-1 |
| 5 | Native Runner | K. McPeek | J. Ortiz | 15-1 |
| 6 | Gosger | B. Walsh | I. Ortiz Jr. | 7-2 |
| 7 | Praetor | C. Brown | F. Prat | 2-1 |
| 8 | Hypnus | K. McPeek | L. Saez | 6-1 |
| 9 | Touchy | W. Ward | J. Rosario | 8-1 |
Obviously these odds would move rather significantly with Rolando and Touchy not at the starting gate, so you’ll have to factor that into your handicap as we get more information in advance of the 5:16 p.m. ET post time for this one. This race will be run over 1 1/16 miles and most of this field is untested in two-turn trots, so that’s a big handicapping factor as well.
Notes on all nine Lexington Stakes horses:
1. Hard as Life (30-1; Nihei/Doyle): The tandem of Michelle Nihei and Sophie Doyle bring the son of Gun Runner and Dreaming as Always to the dirt for the first time. In six career starts on turf/synthetic, the colt won at a mile at Churchill last November and finished second his next time out at Turfway Park. Nihei has only had 17 winners over her last 208 starts and Doyle only had 17 wins last year in 154 starts and is just an 8% jockey so far this season as of Thursday evening. The bloodline adds intrigue because sire Gun Runner was great on dirt, while dam Dreaming as Always was the turf horse of the two.
2. Bracket Buster (20-1; Oliver/Franco): Two female trainers are entered in this race, as Victoria Oliver’s Bracket Buster starts in the 2 slot. The son of Vekoma and Dance With Ravens was spectacular in breaking his maiden on this very Keeneland track at this distance last October, but followed that up with a poor effort in the Grade 3 Street Sense 18 days later. It was the quickest turnaround of the young horse’s tenure and a major step up in class.
Bracket Buster does have a rider upgrade here in Manny Franco and Vekoma’s Blue Grass Stakes win at Keeneland back in 2019 may influence some bettors to take the shot with a price here. It will be his 3-year-old debut, so he’s a bit of a wild card.
3. Bullard (9-2; McCarthy/Rispoli): Another one from the stock of Gun Runner, Bullard is a popular choice off of three very impressive sprint efforts. He’s a shipper, though, with two starts at Del Mar and one at Santa Anita. He showed well with the upgrade in class for the San Vicente Stakes in January as a Grade 2, seven-furlong run. His sire had no issues with distance and the bloodline features all sorts of distance experience.
This race is light on speed and Bullard’s running style, along with his sprint experience, can get him near or out front and that’s where the endurance should kick in. It may simply be about how he takes to a new track.
4. Rolando (6-1; Gutierrez/Velazquez): Having run on Monday, Rolando will likely be scratched here.
5. Native Runner (15-1; McPeek/J. Ortiz): After having incredible success last year with his 3-year-old crop, including one of the best fillies we’ve ever seen in Thorpedo Anna, Kenny McPeek is still searching for his prized 3-year-old this year. It might be another filly in Take Charge Milady or maybe it will be this late bloomer, Native Runner. He comes in off of back-to-back wins after needing four races to break his maiden.
Jose Ortiz gets the ride again after winning at Fair Grounds last time out. Native Runner has three starts at this distance and the arrow looks to be pointing up for the son of 2016 Jim Dandy Stakes winner Laoban.
6. Gosger (7-2; Walsh/I. Ortiz): The top two choices on the odds board come from the 6 and 7 posts, beginning with Gosger for Brendan Walsh. The son of Nyquist comes in with around two months off after winning a maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 15. The talent is there, but experience is a factor. He has two starts and just over $50,000 in earnings, as he’ll need to go an extra 1/16 miles here.
He does get a rider upgrade here with Irad Ortiz Jr. in the irons and it surely doesn’t hurt to have Uncle Mo and Tapit as grandfathers. It likely comes down to the trip, as he’s probably the most promising horse in the field from a talent standpoint.
7. Praetor (2-1; Brown/Prat): If Gosger isn’t the most talented, then favorite Praetor is. The dynamic duo of Chad Brown and Flavien Prat has produced a lot of winners and their hope is that lightning strikes again here with the lightly-raced son of Into Mischief and Curlin’s Approval. Praetor’s first race as a 3-year-old was child’s play in an allowance romp at Gulfstream last month.
In his maiden win last year, Praetor outran Sovereignty, who won the Fountain of Youth and Street Sense Stakes on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, along with a place finish in the Florida Derby. No other horse in this field has a win like that. This was not a cheap horse and winning this race would be a great springboard into the Preakness.
8. Hypnus (6-1; McPeek/Saez): The intrigue on the outside continues with Hypnus, a Brookdale Racing colt for Kenny McPeek. He wasn’t raced as a 2-year-old and has three starts this year, with a very impressive maiden win at Fair Grounds before making his stakes debut in the Rebel at Oaklawn. The class has simply been too much for him, finishing seventh in the Rebel and the Louisiana Derby, but this field is not those fields.
Blinkers go on here for the son of Into Mischief and Dream Tree. He ran in a field of 10 in the Louisiana Derby and a field of 13 in the Rebel, so the blinkers and a lot less traffic could be just what the doctor ordered and perhaps this will be McPeek’s prized 3-year-old.
9. Touchy (8-1; Ward/Rosario): Like Rolando, Touchy is a likely scratch after choosing to run in the Lafayette on Monday.
Lexington Stakes 2025 Picks
Even though this race has no impact on the Kentucky Derby, it still features a fascinating set of horses that may reach their full potential as this year goes along. For me, Praetor is the closest to it now and the deserving favorite. I prefer Bullard to Gosger and Hypnus and like a long shot gamble on Bracket Buster.
$10 Exacta Box – 3/7
$5 Win – 2
