Kentucky Derby 2024 Odds and Predictions

Kentucky Derby Odds

The 150th Kentucky Derby has a 6:57 p.m. ET post time on Saturday, May 4 and there could be a healthy number of contenders. There could also be a clear and obvious winner, as Fierceness and Sierra Leone have gotten a lot of love in the lead-up to the Run for the Roses.

Will the chalk hold up or will we get some surprises on the board?

Odds from DK Horse on May 4, 1 a.m. PT

Post	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	Odds
1	Dornoch	D. Gargan	L. Saez	21-1
2	Sierra Leone	C. Brown	T. Gaffalione	5-1
3	Mystik Dan	K. McPeek	B. Hernandez	15-1
4	Catching Freedom	B. Cox	F. Prat	8-1
5	Catalytic	S. Joseph	J. Ortiz	34-1
6	Just Steel	D. Lukas	K. Asmussen	25-1
7	Honor Marie	W. Beckman	B. Curtis	12-1
8	Just A Touch	B. Cox	F. Geroux	11-1
SCR
10	T O Password	D. Takayanagi	K. Kimura	49-1
11	Forever Young	Y. Yahagi	R. Sakai	6-1
12	Track Phantom	S. Asmussen	J. Rosario	40-1
13	West Saratoga	L. Demeritte	J. Castanon	27-1
14	Endlessly	M. McCarthy	U. Rispoli	45-1
15	Domestic Product	C. Brown	I. Ortiz Jr.	29-1
16	Grand Mo The First	V. Barboza	E. Jaramillo	45-1
17	Fierceness	T. Pletcher	J. Velazquez	3-1
18	Stronghold	P. D’Amato	A. Fresu	32-1
19	Resilience	W. Mott	J. Alvarado	27-1
20	Society Man	D. Gargan	F. Dettori	49-1
21	Epic Ride	J. Ennis	A. Beschizza	48-1

The No. 9 horse, Encino, was scratched earlier in the week, moving Epic Ride into the field. Perhaps most notably, Encino’s scratch moved Fierceness into the 16 gate. Much was made about how a horse had never won from the 17th gate, but Fierceness, who stays No. 17 in the form and on the track, now leaves from a different gate.

Notes on all 20 Kentucky Derby horses:

1. Dornoch (21-1; Gargan/Saez): The son of Good Magic and Puca is actually the brother of last year’s Kentucky Derby winner, Mage. Good Magic finished second to Justify in the 2018 Kentucky Derby and won the Haskell later that year, while dam Puca, the daughter of Big Brown, ran second in the 2015 Gazelle.

My concern with Dornoch is that the Fountain of Youth victory came with just five horses in the field. He has the bloodline for distance, but does he have the temperament for starting at the rail in a physical race?

2. Sierra Leone (5-1; Brown/Gaffalione): Spoiler alert, but Sierra Leone is my favorite horse in the field. He’s won in mud before and is the son of 10-time stakes winner Gun Runner, who was the 2017 Breeders’ Cup champ. Sierra Leone racked up wins in the Risen Star and Blue Grass and has the chance to be the best closer in a field full of them.

My concern here is rider Tyler Gaffalione, who is very accomplished, but hasn’t finished better than seventh in the Derby.

3. Mystik Dan (15-1; McPeek/Hernandez): Sire Goldencents won the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile twice and the Santa Anita Derby, but most of his races were sprints. If this is a muddy race, Mystik Dan becomes way more interesting with a Southwest Stakes win in the slop at Oaklawn.

The McPeek/Hernandez team won the Kentucky Oaks with Thorpedo Anna, so maybe lightning will strike twice for the Oaks/Derby double. None of my exotics got there, but Thorpedo Anna was my heaviest pick to win.

4. Catching Freedom (8-1; Cox/Prat): Brad Cox and Flavien Prat are quite a team and that’s why Catching Freedom has caught some love this week. The son of Constitution and grandson of Tapit and Pioneerofthenile has a great bloodline. Tapit and Pioneerofthenile have birthed many winners and Constitution was a two-time stakes winner at 1 ⅛  miles.

Prat’s first ride on Catching Freedom was a win in the Louisiana Derby. This is another horse with closing speed and pedigree in a race full of them, so how clear will the path be to make a run?

5. Catalytic (34-1; Joseph/Ortiz): This is a very lightly-raced three-year-old, who won his maiden and then finished second in an allowance and then the Florida Derby to gain entry here. This is one of the weaker bloodlines in the field, as sire Catalina Cruiser did win three G2 stakes races, but they were all at shorter distances.

6. Just Steel (25-1; Lukas/Asmussen): One of two colts sired by Justify, Just Steel is the most-raced horse in the field with 11 starts to his name. He’s got two wins and four places in those 11 starts, including four board finishes in his last five races. The D. Wayne Lukas and Keith Asmussen team is quite a contrast, as Lukas is 88 and Asmussen is a debut rider in the Derby at 25. He does have almost 900 races to his name and is the son of trainer Steve Asmussen.

This is a veteran horse in terms of experience, but the speed figures just aren’t there.

7. Honor Marie (12-1; Beckman/Curtis): A lot of super sharp people here at VSiN and around the industry like the son of Honor Code and Dame Marie. He ran second to Catching Freedom at the Louisiana Derby and seems to be on an upswing, but how far will he have to come as a closer in a field full of them?

My concern here is how far Honor Marie is off the pace before rider Ben Curtis has to put the throttle down?

8. Just A Touch (11-1; Cox/Geroux): The other Justify colt in the field is one that I really like. The bloodline is obviously there, but Just A Touch has also run really well after debuting as a three-year-old. He won his maiden and finished second in the Gotham and Blue Grass Stakes. He’s something of a wild card with only three data points and the win came in a sprint, but I’m very intrigued here.

I’ll have a piece to win and a place in my exotics for Just A Touch, who has already been shipped around a little and taken to it well. I like the Cox/Geroux tandem as well.

10. T O Password (50-1; Takayanagi/Kimura): The international horses rarely seem to do well here and T O Password is the lesser of the two Japanese horses. He is 2-for-2 with both wins coming at 1 ⅛ miles, but against much, much weaker fields. He does have a data point in a 16-horse field, though, so maybe the size of this race won’t impact him as much as others.

11. Forever Young (6-1; Yahagi/Sakai): The other Japanese entry is right next door, as Forever Young, winner of the Meydan in Dubai, puts his perfect record on the line. He’s 5-for-5 to this point. From a bloodline standpoint, his father was a turf horse and his mother was a sprinter, so I’m not sure that bodes well here.

That being said, a 6-1 price sure shows a lot of respect.

12. Track Phantom (40-1; Asmussen/Rosario): Quality Road and Miss Sunset came together to produce Track Phantom, so he has 15 stakes wins in the bloodline. Mom was more of a sprinter and Dad was a good distance runner, including three wins at 1 ⅛ miles. Track Phantom will don blinkers for the first time and it makes sense, given that his Lecomte Stakes win came in a field of six.

The concern here is that Track Phantom is a pace setter in a field of closers. He might get off to a really good start and hold off other contenders, but holding off the speedier closers feels like a stretch.

13. West Saratoga (27-1; Demeritte/Castanon): Usually you can make a case for every horse with a perfect trip, but West Saratoga could run the most perfect of trips and still not be in the mix. The speed numbers are way too low for a field of this caliber.

14. Endlessly (45-1; McCarthy/Rispoli): Sadly, like West Saratoga, I don’t see it here. This is also Endlessly’s dirt debut after running on turf and all-weather surfaces. Perhaps he likes dirt and the speed numbers will go up, but not enough to contend here.

15. Domestic Product (29-1; Brown/Ortiz): There isn’t a whole lot of distance success in the bloodline here with Practical Joke and Goods and Services as the sire and dam. The Tampa Bay Derby wasn’t a very good race and Domestic Product won that to get here.

16. Grand Mo The First (45-1; Barboza/Jaramillo): Uncle Mo was the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, but never ran a Triple Crown race. This will be the fourth dirt race for Grand Mo The First after starting on other surfaces as a two-year-old. I don’t see a contender here either.

17. Fierceness (3-1; Pletcher/Velazquez): The son of 2019 Pegasus World Cup winner City of Light is maybe the most frustrating horse in the field. In three wins, Fierceness has huge speed figures. In two non-wins, you’re left wondering what the hell happened. His maiden win came in the mud and muck, so bad conditions probably won’t phase him, but consistency has been an issue.

If Fierceness gets a good trip, he won’t lose. It will be very hard for most to leave him off entirely because of the immense potential.

18. Stronghold (32-1; D’Amato/Fresu): The connections aren’t very accomplished here with the D’Amato/Fresu team, but sire Ghostzapper was the 2004 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. Stronghold hasn’t finished worse than second yet, but obviously this is a tremendous step up in class and a very long trip with the outside post.

19. Resilience (27-1; Mott/Alvarado): At a similar price, I could see Resilience being more of a factor than Stronghold. I don’t think either one will be, but the son of Into Mischief has the bloodline for distance. Unfortunately, he’s more of a stalker than a big-time closer. Others in the field are likely to close a lot stronger.

It took four cracks at a maiden win for Resilience, but his Wood Memorial run at Aqueduct was really strong and that’s what he’s looking to build off of here.

20 Society Man (49-1; Gargan/Dettori): It was Society Man who finished second to Resilience in the Wood Memorial. That was how Society Man gained entry here. This is a lightly-raced horse that just won his maiden in March. Experience is not on his side here. Stranger things have happened, especially with a good speed number in the Wood, but it’s a really long trip.

21 Epic Ride (48-1; Ennis/Beschizza): This is the long shot that might see a drop in price on race day. Epic Ride is in because Encino is not. Sire Blame was a seven-time stakes winner and the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. Epic Ride’s dirt debut led to a show finish at the Blue Grass at 1 ⅛ miles.

I think you’ll see a lot of 21s on exotics hoping to get the long shot to the board.

Kentucky Derby 2024 Picks

$20 Win

2 Sierra Leone

$15 Win

17 Fierceness

$10 Win

8 Just A Touch

$5 Exacta Box

2/8/17