Early February on the Kentucky Derby trail is about establishing reference points rather than drawing conclusions as the field for the 2026 Kentucky Derby begins to take shape. With only a limited number of two-turn prep races completed and several key qualifiers delayed by weather, the current landscape reflects modest data and volatility. As David Aragona of Daily Racing Form has noted, these early rankings are best considered a first look and not a forecast of the outcome on the first Saturday in May.
Kentucky Derby 2026: Establishing an Early Baseline
Beginning with Nearly, whose authoritative victory in the Grade 3 Holy Bull represents the strongest performance by any 3-year-old to date, Aragona has described him as a cautious early favorite. At this stage of the season, consistent speed figures and two-turn performances remain scarce, elevating any runner who has delivered both.
David Grening of Daily Racing Form has reported how quickly the Derby picture can change. The removal of champion juvenile Ted Noffey from the trail due to bone bruising reinforced the importance of durability and timing, while postponed prep races have compressed schedules and delayed clarity. For many barns, February remains a period of positioning rather than urgency as they map a path forward.
Beyond the top spot, the rankings reflect a wide range of developmental profiles. Horses such as Paladin and Commandment have followed measured progressions and now face upcoming starts that should determine whether they can continue moving forward.
Below are Daily Racing Form’s Top 10 Kentucky Derby contenders with odds.
Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders (as of Feb. 4, 2026)
Implied win probabilities converted from David Aragona Odds.
- Nearly — Trainer: Todd Pletcher
- Odds / Probability: 10-1 (9.1%)
- Last race: Holy Bull — 1st by 5¾
- Likely next race: Florida Derby — March 28, Gulfstream Park
- Paladin — Trainer: Chad Brown
- Odds / Probability: 12-1 (7.7%)
- Last race: Remsen — 1st by 2
- Likely next race: Risen Star — Feb. 14, Fair Grounds
- Commandment — Trainer: Brad Cox
- Odds / Probability: 20-1 (4.8%)
- Last race: Mucho Macho Man — 1st by 6¾
- Likely next race: Fountain of Youth — Feb. 28, Gulfstream Park
- Brant — Trainer: Bob Baffert
- Odds / Probability: 25-1 (3.8%)
- Last race: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile — 3rd by 1½
- Likely next race: Rebel — March 1, Oaklawn Park
- Further Ado — Trainer: Brad Cox
- Odds / Probability: 25-1 (3.8%)
- Last race: Kentucky Jockey Club — 1st by 1¾
- Likely next race: Tampa Bay Derby — March 7
- Golden Tempo — Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
- Odds / Probability: 25-1 (3.8%)
- Last race: Lecomte — 1st by ¾
- Likely next race: Risen Star — Feb. 14
- Litmus Test — Trainer: Bob Baffert
- Odds / Probability: 25-1 (3.8%)
- Last race: Los Alamitos Futurity — 1st by 1¼
- Likely next race: San Felipe — March 7
- Blackout Time — Trainer: Kenny McPeek
- Odds / Probability: 30-1 (3.2%)
- Last race: Breeders’ Futurity — 2nd by 2¾
- Likely next race: TBD
- Canaletto — Trainer: Chad Brown
- Odds / Probability: 30-1 (3.2%)
- Last race: Gulfstream maiden — 1st by 8
- Likely next race: Fountain of Youth (Feb. 28) or Tampa Bay Derby (March 7)
- Desert Gate — Trainer: Bob Baffert
- Odds / Probability: 30-1 (3.2%)
- Last race: American Pharoah — 2nd by ¾
- Likely next race: Robert B. Lewis — Feb. 7
