Updated weekly by Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona and David Grening
The Daily Racing Form’s Derby Watch top contenders list saw significant reshuffling this week, with Chief Wallabee vaulting from 35-1 to co-second choice at 8-1 alongside Commandment following their Fountain of Youth Stakes duel. Both horses earned triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures – Commandment a 101 in winning by a neck, Chief Wallabee a 100 in just his second career start.
Class President’s nose victory over Silent Tactic in Sunday’s Rebel Stakes earned the Todd Pletcher trainee a 15-1 Derby Watch listing from Daily Racing Form handicapper David Aragona, while Gotham winner Iron Honor enters at 25-1. Napoleon Solo and Bravaro dropped off entirely after distant Fountain of Youth finishes.
Undefeated Paladin holds favoritism at 6-1 despite needing to run faster Beyer Speed Figures. The 8-1 co-second choices Chief Wallabee and Commandment are likely headed for a Florida Derby rematch on March 28.
“I think it just speaks to the quality of what Commandment and Chief Wallabee are and what they could be,” Daily Racing Form’s David Grening said on this week’s Derby Watch podcast. “I think you and I both have been fans of Commandment, and he verified that fandom with a solid performance coming through on the inside.”
Commandment’s 101 Beyer marked his third straight improvement for trainer Brad Cox, with speed figures climbing from 81 to 91 to 101. Chief Wallabee ran his 100 Beyer despite racing wide on both turns.
“To run a 100 Beyer against a quality horse like that in your second start, I think Bill [Mott] has a lot to work with,” Grening said.
The key question for Chief Wallabee is experience – Mott rarely rushes lightly raced horses to the Derby.
“The thing with Mott is I don’t think he’ll push it if he thinks it’s going to be detrimental to the horse,” Grening said.
In the Rebel Stakes, Class President showed grit in his first two-turn test.
“Class President really showed a lot of, you know, pardon the pun, class and determination and grit,” Grening said.
His next start remains undecided – the Blue Grass, Wood Memorial, and Arkansas Derby are all under consideration.
The two Rebel favorites disappointed – Litmus Test faded to third, dropping to 40-1 on the full Top 20, while Blackout Time’s distant fourth pushed him to 50-1.
Five horses from the full Top 20 compete this weekend: Brant, So Happy, and Secured Freedom in Saturday’s $300,000 San Felipe Stakes (Race 8, 6:41 p.m. ET) at Santa Anita; Further Ado and Canaletto in Saturday’s $400,000 Tampa Bay Derby (Race 11, 5:35 p.m. ET).
View complete Daily Racing Form Kentucky Derby rankings and the full Derby Watch podcast at DRF.com.
TOP KENTUCKY DERBY CONTENDERS
Understanding the Rankings
Daily Racing Form’s Kentucky Derby rankings are determined by odds assigned by handicapper David Aragona. Horses with identical odds share the same ranking.
1. Paladin (6-1)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Last Race: Risen Star S. (G2), Feb. 14 – 1st by ½
Next Start: Blue Grass S. (G1), April 4, Keeneland
Top Beyer: 93
T2. Chief Wallabee (8-1)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Last Race: Fountain of Youth S. (G2), Feb. 28 – 2nd by neck
Next Start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park
Top Beyer: 100
T2. Commandment (8-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Last Race: Fountain of Youth S. (G2), Feb. 28 – 1st by neck
Next Start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park
Top Beyer: 101
T4. Nearly (10-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Last Race: Holy Bull S. (G3), Jan. 31 – 1st by 5¾
Next Start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park
Top Beyer: 98
T4. Renegade (12-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Last Race: Sam F. Davis S. (G3), Feb. 7 – 1st by 3¾
Next Start: Arkansas Derby (G1), March 28, Oaklawn Park
Top Beyer: 92
6. Class President (15-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Last Race: Rebel S. (G2), March 1 – 1st by nose
Next Start: Undecided
Top Beyer: 91
7. Silent Tactic (20-1)
Trainer: Mark Casse
Last Race: Rebel S. (G2), March 1 – 2nd by nose
Next Start: Undecided
Top Beyer: 91
T8. Further Ado (25-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Last Race: Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), Nov. 29 – 1st by 1 3/4
Next Start: Tampa Bay Derby (G3), March 7, Race 11, 5:35 p.m. ET, Tampa Bay Downs
Top Beyer: 98
T8. Iron Honor (25-1)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Last Race: Gotham S. (G3), Feb. 28 – 1st by 1
Next Start: Wood Memorial (G2), April 5, Aqueduct
Top Beyer: 95
T10. Brant (30-1)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: BC Juvenile (G1), Oct. 31 – 3rd by 1 1/2
Next Start: San Felipe S. (G2), March 7, Race 8, 6:41 p.m. ET, Santa Anita
Top Beyer: 101
T10. Canaletto (30-1)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Last Race: Maiden, Jan. 25 – 1st by 8
Next Start: Tampa Bay Derby (G3), March 7, Race 11, 5:35 p.m. ET, Tampa Bay Downs
Top Beyer: 89
Updated weekly by Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona and David Grening
For complete Derby Watch Top 20 rankings, visit DRF.com – Derby Watch analyzes top Kentucky Derby contenders each week. For odds, past performances and expert picks, visit DRF.com
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