Updated weekly by Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona and David Grening
Three horses joined Daily Racing Form’s Derby Watch top contenders list this week following last weekend’s prep action: Emerging Market (15-1), Fulleffort (25-1), and Pavlovian (30-1). Making room for them were Chip Honcho, Reagan’s Honor, and Blackout Time, all dropped.
Paladin remains the 6-1 favorite. Chief Wallabee and Commandment are co-second choices at 8-1, with three of those top four on the board – Chief Wallabee, Commandment, and Nearly (10-1) – all running in Saturday’s Florida Derby.
Fulleffort wins Jeff Ruby Steaks; Louisiana Derby goes to Emerging Market
On this week’s Derby Watch podcast, Daily Racing Form handicapper David Aragona and Daily Racing Form’s David Grening recapped both 100-point preps from last weekend. Fulleffort took the $777,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park, winning by 2 1/2 lengths over Stark Contrast to earn a 94 Beyer. Grening noted the parallels to Final Gambit, the Brad Cox trainee who followed the same synthetic-to-dirt path before finishing fourth in last year’s Kentucky Derby. The central question for Fulleffort is the same: He has never run on dirt. Aragona said the horse “does not have that electric turn of foot. But he’s a grinder.” Cox’s stable will monitor his Churchill Downs training closely in the weeks ahead.
Emerging Market won the $1 million Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds by a head over Pavlovian, with Golden Tempo another length back in third. Grening said he could tell “from a long way out Emerging Market was traveling really well” – yet Pavlovian pressed him all the way to the wire in what both analysts credited as a tough, honest effort from the pacesetter. Aragona set Emerging Market at 15-1, noting uncertainty about how bettors will price a horse with just two career starts. He said the colt “has yet to hit the ceiling of what he could do,” while also flagging that no Kentucky Derby winner has come in with just two prior starts since 1883.
Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby headline loaded Saturday
Saturday’s Florida Derby draws three of the top four on the list – Chief Wallabee, Commandment, and Nearly – plus The Puma (25-1), making it the most consequential prep of the season to date. Aragona noted that Commandment already holds 50 points from the Fountain of Youth and may not need to fully extend himself in the Florida Derby to reach Churchill Downs, while Nearly is in a must-perform situation to secure his points.
Saturday’s Arkansas Derby, a 100-point race at Oaklawn, draws Renegade (10-1) as the morning-line favorite along with Silent Tactic (20-1) and Litmus Test (50-1). Aragona said of Renegade that he “has just continued to step forward with each and every start.”
Also on tap Saturday: Danon Bourbon runs in the Fukuryu Stakes in Japan, and the UAE Derby in Dubai will determine which two international horses earn invitations to Churchill Downs.
View complete Daily Racing Form Kentucky Derby rankings and the full Derby Watch podcast at DRF.com.
TOP KENTUCKY DERBY CONTENDERS
Daily Racing Form’s Kentucky Derby rankings (Week 8, March 25, 2026)
Horses listed with trainer and Derby odds from DRF Derby Watch:
1. Paladin (Chad Brown, 6-1)
Last start: 1st by 1/2 length, Risen Star (G2), Feb. 14 – 93 Beyer
Best Beyer: 93
Next start: Blue Grass (G2), April 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8M
T2. Chief Wallabee (Bill Mott, 8-1)
Last start: 2nd by neck, Fountain of Youth (G2), Feb. 28 – 100 Beyer
Best Beyer: 100
Next start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8M
T2. Commandment (Brad Cox, 8-1)
Last start: 1st by neck, Fountain of Youth (G2), Feb. 28 – 101 Beyer
Best Beyer: 101
Next start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8M
T4. Nearly (Todd Pletcher, 10-1)
Last start: 1st by 5 3/4 lengths, Holy Bull (G3), Jan. 31 – 98 Beyer
Best Beyer: 98
Next start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8M
T4. Renegade (Todd Pletcher, 10-1)
Last start: 1st by 3 3/4 lengths, Sam F. Davis (G3), Feb. 7 – 93 Beyer
Best Beyer: 93
Next start: Arkansas Derby (G2), March 28, Oaklawn Park, 1 1/8M
T6. Class President (Todd Pletcher, 15-1)
Last start: 1st by nose, Rebel (G2), March 1 – 91 Beyer
Best Beyer: 91
Next start: Blue Grass (G2), April 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8M
T6. Emerging Market (Chad Brown, 15-1)
Last start: 1st by head, Louisiana Derby (G2), March 21 – 90 Beyer
Best Beyer: 97
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T8. Potente (Bob Baffert, 20-1)
Last start: 1st by head, San Felipe (G2), March 7 – 89 Beyer
Best Beyer: 89
Next start: Santa Anita Derby (G1), April 4, Santa Anita Park, 1 1/8M
T8. Silent Tactic (Mark Casse, 20-1)
Last start: 2nd by nose, Rebel (G2), March 1 – 91 Beyer
Best Beyer: 91
Next start: Arkansas Derby (G2), March 28, Oaklawn Park, 1 1/8M
T10. Fulleffort (Brad Cox, 25-1)
Last start: 1st by 2 1/2 lengths, Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), March 21 – 94 Beyer
Best Beyer: 94
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T10. Further Ado (Brad Cox, 25-1)
Last start: 2nd by 3/4 length, Tampa Bay Derby (G3), March 7 – 87 Beyer
Best Beyer: 98
Next start: Blue Grass (G2), April 4, Keeneland, 1 1/8M
T10. Incredibolt (Bill Mott, 25-1)
Last start: 1st by four lengths, Virginia Derby, March 14 – 88 Beyer
Best Beyer: 88
Next start: Kentucky Derby (G1), May 2, Churchill Downs, 1 1/4M
T10. The Puma (Gustavo Delgado Sr., 25-1)
Last start: 1st by 3/4 length, Tampa Bay Derby (G3), March 7 – 89 Beyer
Best Beyer: 89
Next start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park, 1 1/8M
Full Top 20 also includes: Cherokee Nation (30-1), Golden Tempo (30-1), Iron Honor (30-1), Pavlovian (30-1), Danon Bourbon (40-1), Intrepido (40-1), Litmus Test (50-1)
Updated weekly by Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona and David Grening
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