Updated weekly by Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona and David Grening
Three Derby prep races offering 50 qualifying points to the winner – enough to punch a ticket to Louisville – highlight a critical weekend on the Kentucky Derby trail, with the Fountain of Youth and Rebel Stakes shaping up as the deepest fields assembled to date.
The marquee events are Saturday’s $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes (Race 12, 5:42 p.m. ET) at Gulfstream Park and Sunday’s $1 million Rebel Stakes (Race 11, 6:23 p.m. ET) at Oaklawn Park. The $300,000 Gotham Stakes (Race 9, 4:48 p.m. ET) runs Saturday at Aqueduct.
Eight horses from the current Daily Racing Form’s Derby Watch top contenders list are in action this weekend. In Saturday’s Fountain of Youth, Commandment (20-1) faces several other horses from the full Top 20 rankings, including Chief Wallabee (35-1), Napoleon Solo (35-1), and Bravaro (50-1). Sunday’s Rebel features Blackout Time (25-1) and Litmus Test (25-1), along with Brant (30-1) and Silent Tactic (30-1) from the Top 20.
“Probably the race that is going to have the greatest implications is the Fountain of Youth,” Daily Racing Form handicapper David Aragona said on this week’s Derby Watch podcast. “This just came up a super tough field.”
Commandment could benefit from the expected pace scenario at Gulfstream.
“With Napoleon Solo and Solitude Dude in this field, you know there’s going to be pace,” Daily Racing Form handicapper David Grening said. “I’d be hard pressed to see them not rock and roll on the front end.”
The Rebel also drew high marks from the handicappers.
“Probably the best prep, the one maybe. I’m anxious to see it,” Aragona said.
The field includes the return of Blackout Time from his controversial Breeders’ Cup Juvenile scratch and Litmus Test, who Aragona believes is underrated.
“Just feels like a horse that’s maybe a little underrated on this Derby trail,” he said. “I think the fact that he scratched out of the Southwest threw some people off the bandwagon.”
Beyond current favorite Paladin (6-1) and second choice Nearly (10-1), the Derby picture remains wide open.
“Beside from Paladin, maybe Nearly, no one’s really jumped out and has that resume that screams ‘Hey, we’re the ones,’ ” Grening said.
The weekend also brings significant news off the track as Bob Baffert confirmed to Grening that Plutarch won’t make the Kentucky Derby after the Robert B. Lewis winner came out of that race with body soreness.
“He’s very immature. The timing is bad. I need an extra 30 days,” Baffert said.
Meanwhile, Reagan’s Honor emerged as an intriguing contender after earning a 96 Beyer Speed Figure while beating older horses at Fair Grounds. The Cherie DeVaux trainee will take on Paladin in the Blue Grass Stakes on April 4.
View complete Daily Racing Form Kentucky Derby rankings and the full Derby Watch podcast at DRF.com.
TOP KENTUCKY DERBY CONTENDERS
Understanding the Rankings
Daily Racing Form’s Kentucky Derby rankings are determined by odds assigned by handicapper David Aragona. Horses with identical odds share the same ranking.
1. Paladin (6-1)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Last Race: Risen Star S. (G2), Feb. 14 – 1st by ½
Next Start: Blue Grass S. (G1), April 4, Keeneland
Top Beyer: 93
2. Nearly (10-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Last Race: Holy Bull S. (G3), Jan. 31 – 1st by 5¾
Next Start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park
Top Beyer: 98
3. Renegade (12-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Last Race: Sam F. Davis S. (G3), Feb. 7 – 1st by 3¾
Next Start: Arkansas Derby (G1), March 28, Oaklawn Park
Top Beyer: 92
4. Commandment (20-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Last Race: Mucho Macho Man S., Jan. 3 – 1st by 6¾
Next Start: Fountain of Youth S. (G2), Feb. 28, Gulfstream Park
Top Beyer: 91
T5. Blackout Time (25-1)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Last Race: Breeders’ Futurity (G1), Oct. 4 – 2nd by 2¾
Next Start: Rebel S. (G2), March 1, Oaklawn Park
Top Beyer: 93
T5. Further Ado (25-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Last Race: Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2), Nov. 29 – 1st by 1¾
Next Start: Tampa Bay Derby (G3), March 7, Tampa Bay Downs
Top Beyer: 98
T5. Litmus Test (25-1)
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Last Race: Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), Dec. 13 – 1st by 1¼
Next Start: San Felipe S. (G2), March 7, Santa Anita
Top Beyer: 96
Updated weekly by Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona and David Grening
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