Paladin tops this week’s Daily Racing Form Kentucky Derby rankings at 10-1, creating a betting opportunity for handicappers eyeing Saturday’s Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds (Race 12, 6:30 p.m. ET). The first 50 points to the winner qualifier of the Championship Series offers a clear path to Churchill Downs – winners of races awarding 50 or more points have historically secured Derby starting positions.
Daily Racing Form handicapper David Aragona and correspondent David Grening analyze the 3-year-old division weekly through their complete top 20 rankings and Derby Watch podcast available at Daily Racing Form. Their collaboration combines Aragona’s odds-making expertise with Grening’s trackside reporting to identify value and evaluate Derby prospects.
The Risen Star features an intriguing handicapping puzzle. Paladin makes his 3-year-old debut off a two-month freshening, with Grening noting the Chad Brown trainee “galloped out super strong” in recent Palm Beach Downs workouts. Yet sixth-ranked Golden Tempo, coming off a Lecomte Stakes victory at Fair Grounds, presents the classic “horse-for-course” scenario. “He’s going to have to get faster to beat a horse like Paladin,” Grening said, acknowledging the speed figure gap while noting Golden Tempo has “license to get better” with only two career starts.
Co-second-ranked Renegade’s Sam F. Davis victory validated December’s Remsen Stakes form, where he finished second to Paladin. “The Remsen is now starting to prove out,” Grening told Aragona on the Derby Watch podcast. Todd Pletcher trains both Renegade (12-1) and the equally ranked Nearly (12-1), who captured the Holy Bull Stakes.
Eighth-ranked Plutarch bounded out of maiden victory on turf to win the Robert B. Lewis on dirt. “Showed a different dimension winning Lewis on the pace; believe he’ll improve with more ground,” Grening said.
“I’m hoping to see a real speed figure step forward from several of these horses, because none of them have run that fast,” Aragona said, suggesting Saturday’s Risen Star could separate legitimate Derby contenders from pretenders.
For bettors targeting Churchill Downs’ Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool opening this week, Aragona offered guidance: “If you have an opinion on a horse at 50-, 60-, 70-1, why not take a shot?” Grening highlighted ninth-ranked Blackout Time as a prospect who “could run first or second in the Rebel” on March 1 at Oaklawn Park, potentially shortening his current 30-1 odds.
View complete Daily Racing Form Kentucky Derby rankings and the full Derby Watch podcast at DRF.com.
Top 10 Kentucky Derby Contenders
1. Paladin
Trainer: Chad Brown | Odds: 10-1 (9.1%)
Last Race: Remsen S. (G2), Dec. 6 – 1st by 2
Next Start: Risen Star S. (G2), Feb. 14, Fair Grounds
Top Beyer: 87
2. Nearly
Trainer: Todd Pletcher | Odds: 12-1 (7.7%)
Last Race: Holy Bull S. (G3), Jan. 31 – 1st by 5 ¾
Next Start: Florida Derby (G1), March 28, Gulfstream Park
Top Beyer: 98
3. Renegade
Trainer: Todd Pletcher | Odds: 12-1 (7.7%)
Last Race: Sam F. Davis S. (G3), Feb. 7 – 1st by 3 ¾
Next Start: Arkansas Derby (G1), March 28, Oaklawn Park
Top Beyer: 92
4. Commandment
Trainer: Brad Cox | Odds: 20-1 (4.8%)
Last Race: Mucho Macho Man S., Jan. 3 – 1st by 6 ¾
Next Start: Fountain of Youth S. (G2), Feb. 28, Gulfstream Park
Top Beyer: 91
5. Further Ado
Trainer: Brad Cox | Odds: 25-1
Last Race: Kentucky Jockey Club S. (G2), Nov. 29 – 1st by 1 ¾
Next Start: Tampa Bay Derby (G3), March 7, Tampa Bay Downs
Top Beyer: 98
6. Golden Tempo
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux | Odds: 25-1
Last Race: Lecomte S. (G3), Jan. 17 – 1st by ¾
Next Start: Risen Star S. (G2), Feb. 14, Fair Grounds
Top Beyer: 81
7. Litmus Test
Trainer: Bob Baffert | Odds: 25-1
Last Race: Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), Dec. 13 – 1st by 1 ¼
Next Start: San Felipe S. (G2), March 7, Santa Anita
Top Beyer: 96
8. Plutarch
Trainer: Bob Baffert | Odds: 25-1
Last Race: Robert B. Lewis S. (G3), Feb. 7 – 1st by ¾
Next Start: TBD
Top Beyer: 90
9. Blackout Time
Trainer: Kenny McPeek | Odds: 30-1 (3.2%)
Last Race: Breeders’ Futurity (G1), Oct. 4 – 2nd by 2 ¾
Next Start: Rebel S. (G2), March 1, Oaklawn Park
Top Beyer: 93
10. Brant
Trainer: Bob Baffert | Odds: 30-1 (3.2%)
Last Race: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), Oct. 31 – 3rd by 1 ½
Next Start: Rebel S. (G2), March 1, Oaklawn Park
Top Beyer: 101
Updated weekly by Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona and David Grening
