An Early Look at the 2024 Kentucky Derby
We have now reached the point in the Kentucky Derby prep season where we have seen the Derby winner run; it is just a question of who. Last year, Mage had his coming out party in the Fountain of Youth, which runs this Saturday at Gulfstream Park. That race looks like it will be another key prep with as many as four horses coming out of it to run in the Kentucky Derby. Let’s look at some of the top contenders I am interested in moving forward, a couple I don’t like, and the wild cards still out there.
Fierceness – The favorite entering the year to win the blanket of roses looked bad in his one race of the season. His case is an interesting one. He’s run two phenomenal races and two clunkers. We know the talent is there, just watch his Breeder’s Cup Juvenile win and the connections have won this before. At his current 12-1 price, there is an argument to make that there is some value. We will see him next in the Florida Derby and if he wins, he will be the likely favorite on the first Saturday in May.
Sierra Leone – His coming out party in the Risen Star two weekends ago propelled him to favoritism in most derby markets around 8-1. This was a highly touted horse from the get-go, selling for $2.3M as a yearling. He is bred to handle the distance, but the price is too short for me now and likely in the Derby. He is going to be coming from off the pace, and he’s a larger horse who needs to keep his stride to run his best. That is tough to do with 20 horses in the race coming from the back of the pack.
Dornoch – The first of the Fountain of Youth runners beat Sierra Leone to close out his two-year-old campaign as the winning favorite in the Grade 2 Remsen. His style will make him an interesting horse in the Derby. He has needed the lead to win in prior races, and it is not easy to go gate-to-wire. This year’s class seems to have an abundance of speed, so I would not touch the current 10-1 price. If he can show a new dimension on Saturday, that could change.
Speak Easy / Victory Avenue – I am grouping these two together because, with both, you are betting on the come. They ran on the undercard on Pegasus day, and both flashed talent. Victory Avenue got bet like he was going to be a monster, going off at 3/2, but Speak Easy won the race, getting a 100 Beyer rating. Both horses were 1 – 2 the whole way around the track, so much like my concern with Dornoch, they need to show another dimension to be serious contenders in the Derby. That being said, we’ve seen horses stalk going two turns after being on the lead going one, so there is a chance we’ll see that on Saturday, and both seem ultra-talented. I do like Victory Avenue more as he goes longer.
Timberlake – He looked good on return in the Rebel last weekend at Oaklawn, coming off of a four-month lay-off and flatted Fierceness’ win in the Breeders’ Cup. I was impressed with his ability to sit off of the pace midpack and make a sweeping move to get the win, but that was one of the weaker versions of Rebel that we have seen in years, and there are major concerns he can get the 1 ¼ mile distance that the Kentucky Derby is run at. His next start should be telling.
Forever Young – The first of the wild card horses hails from Japan. He is undefeated and coming off a win in the Saudi Derby to earn his first qualification points. Unlike some Japanese horses in the past, he has been on the Derby radar for months before the race and is a legitimate contender, especially in what feels like a weaker-then-usual three-year-old crop. It’s a question of when, not if, a Japanese horse wins the big one, and this looks like he could be it. The current 18-1 price will be a value if he makes it to the starting gate.
Catching Freedom – He’s a wild card I am interested in moving forward. He ran third to Sierra Leone last out and was very green in the stretch. He still has a lot to learn, and time is against him since he will most likely run just once more before the Kentucky Derby, but the talent is there and Seaz is shipping in to ride him for Brad Cox. At 25-1, it’s not worth a bet right now, but he is someone I am going to have my eye on in the coming weeks.
California Horses – I am sure you’ve noted that I didn’t list a single horse from the West Coast. With Bob Baffert missing another Kentucky Derby, it simply doesn’t look like there is anyone who is a legitimate contender at this time. For my money, Nysos is the best 3-year-old, but because of his trainer, we will not see him at Churchill.
One important thing I am looking for in the next round of preps is the cross-course horses and how they fare. To this point, all of the three-year-olds have stayed on the same circuit, so you are projecting how they will do when they travel. With this upcoming set of races, we will see horses who ran at Fair Grounds race at Oaklawn or Gulfstream. Dornoch will be a New York horse running in Florida this week. How those horses fair will often tip the hand of what circuit is best and light the way to a possible Kentucky Derby winner.
