Kentucky Derby and Churchill Downs Picks for Saturday, May 2:
“THE FASTEST TWO MINUTES IN SPORTS” Or the longest day at the track to this aging horseplayer. On many evenings, Mr. Ed is in bed before the Derby (6:57 p.m. ET) is over. All 20 entries considered, the 2026 Kentucky Derby is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent years. Mr. Ed’s pick wavered several times over the past 10 days — from #1 RENEGADE (difficult post) to #6 COMMANDMENT (excellent speed figures) to #18 FURTHER ADO (stunning romp in Bluegrass), before finally settling on #15 EMERGING MARKET (speed, reliable connections). The move that tipped Mr. Ed’s choice was jockey Flavien Prat’s decision to jump off Commandment in favor of Emerging Market. Undefeated after merely two starts, if trainer Chad Brown didn’t think his horse was ready to move forward off limited experience, he would have waited for the shorter Preakness stakes in two weeks. Emerging Market is my pick to win the Kentucky Derby. Here are Mr. Ed’s top four plays, followed by his selections for several undercard contests.
Race 12 MR. ED’S KENTUCKY DERBY PICKS
#15 EMERGING MARKET (15-1)
#6 Commandment (6-1)
#18 Further Ado (6-1)
#1 Renegade (4-1)
CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTIONS: $20 to Win, $5 Exacta Boxes of 15/1,6,18 ($50)
Mr. Ed’s Churchill Downs Selections for Saturday (5/02)
Race 1 (11:00 a.m. ET/8:00 a.m. PT) — $120K MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT for 3YOs & Up going 1 1/16 mile
Mr. Ed is playing a DD, starting with: #3 SILENT WAY (4-1 morning line) for traveling West Coast trainer Peter Eurton with rider upgrade to Flavien Prat, following a fast finish for Place at home at Santa Anita, and #11 POWERSHIFT (3-1) for classy team of Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz, Jr.
CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTION: $5 Daily Double of 3,11/4,8. ($20)
Race 2 (11:32 p.m. ET/8:32 a.m. PT) — $127K ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING for 3YOs going 1 1/16 mile
To complete the winning DD: #4 MEMORY (9-2 morning line) for trainer Bob Baffert with rider upgrade to Flavien Prat following win at Santa Anita, and #8 TAPTASTIC (3-1), trained by Steve Asmussen and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Race 3 (12:05 p.m. ET/9:05 a.m. PT) — $134K ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING for 3YOs & Up going a mile
Mr. Ed’s choice is #12 PRAETOR (3-1) for favorite Brown-Prat connections. Expensive ($725K), slow-developing 4YO should enjoy the stretch out to a mile.
CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTION: $10 to Win. ($10)
Race 4 (12:38 p.m. ET/9:38 a.m. PT) — $1 MILLION G1 DERBY CITY DISTAFF for fillies and mares, 4YOs going 7 furlongs
Mr. Ed’s BEST BET OF THE DAY is #5 SPLENDORA (2-1 morning line) for Bob Baffert and Flavien Prat. Prat returns to ride after passing up his regular ride on main rival, #4 WAYS AND MEANS. Count on Mr. Ed with Prat.
CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTION: $20 to Win. ($20)
Race 5 (1:12 p.m. ET/10:12 a.m. PT) $600K G2 TWIN SPIRES TURF SPRINT for 3YOs & Up going 5½ furlongs on the
grass
Mr. Ed’s betting on a trio: #3 MY BOY PRINCE (9-2 morning line) with Jose Ortiz riding for Mark Casse, gelding looks like royalty; #7 YELLOW CARD (9-2) for Flavien Prat riding for trainer Mike McCarthy, and #10 JOE SHIESTY (6-1) for hot trainer Eric Foster with Fernando De La Cruz up.
CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTION: $5 Exacta Box of 3,7,10. ($30)
Race 9 (4:06 p.m. ET/1:06 p.m. PT) — $1 MILLION G1 AMERICAN TURF STAKES for 3YOs going 1 1/16-mile on the grass
Mr. Ed finds three to like: #4 STARK CONTRAST (4-1 morning line) for trainer Mike McCarthy with Flavien Prat riding; #9 HONEY DUTCH (12-1) with Tyler Gaffalione on board for Whit Beckman, and #12 REMEMBER MAMBA (9-2) for Cherie Devaux with jockey Jose Ortiz.
CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTION: $5 Exacta Box of 4,9,12. ($30)
Race 10 (4:50 p.m. ET/1:50 p.m. PT) — $1 MILLION G1 CHURCHILL DOWNS STAKES for 4YOs & Up going 7 furlongs
Mr. Ed’s betting on both #5 DISRUPTOR (8-1 morning line) for trainer Todd Pletcher with regular rider Irad Ortiz, Jr., and #6 KNIGHTSBRIDGE (9-5) for Bill Mott with Junior Alvarado up.
CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTION: $10 Exacta Box of 5&6. ($20)
Race 11 (5:39 p.m. ET/2:39 p.m. PT) — $1.5 MILLION G1 TURF CLASSIC for 4YOs & Up
Mr. Ed’s VALUE PLAY OF THE DAY is #6 RHETORICAL (5-2 morning line) for savvy young trainer Bill Walden with regular rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. A win today will top $1 million-earner mark. Consistency and class add up to victory.
CHURCHILL DOWNS SELECTION: $10 to Win & Place. ($20)
TOTAL WAGERS: $200
BET YOU DIDN’T KNOW: Mr. Ed postponed his wedding from May 1 to May 8 so he wouldn’t miss the Kentucky Derby. Mr. Ed is taking a week off to celebrate his wedding anniversary with his wife, family and friends. He will return before the Preakness Stakes on May 16.
