Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer preview the Grade 1 Turf Classic Stakes at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.
The $1.5 million race goes off at 5:39 p.m. Eastern as Race 11, the final stakes before the Kentucky Derby. Aragona and Beer split on top: Aragona takes a 15-1 swing on No. 1 Corruption; Beer sides with No. 9 Test Score. Both agree this is not the strongest edition of the race, with several runners facing distance questions at 1 1/8 miles.
Aragona’s longshot play: No. 1 Corruption
No. 1 Corruption, trained by Mark Casse, finished second behind Far Bridge in the Pan American Stakes last out. Aragona believes the distance is no concern, citing a previous nine-furlong win at Churchill Downs and a wide-trip fourth in last year’s Manhattan Stakes against tougher company.
The pace is the angle. The TimeformUS Pace Projector shows No. 6 Rhetorical on the lead, but Aragona reads it differently. “I think that Corruption might be just quick enough to get to the front end under John Velazquez, who was the type who would go from the rail,” Aragona said. Beer upgraded the horse after hearing the case.
Beer’s top pick: No. 9 Test Score
No. 9 Test Score is 3 for 4 at 1 1/8 miles, with Grade 1 wins at the Belmont Derby last year and the Pegasus World Cup Turf last out. The 4-year-old colt, trained by Graham Motion, dug in between horses to win the Pegasus Turf.
“I would argue that he should be 4 for 4 over this distance,” Beer said, citing trip trouble in the Hollywood Derby two starts back. With Manny Franco riding, Test Score figures tactically.
The shared call: No. 3 Asbury Park
Both have No. 3 Asbury Park second. The Chad Brown-trained 4-year-old colt won the Jockey Club Derby last fall, and Brown has won five of the last seven runnings of the Turf Classic. Flavien Prat’s switch off Brown’s other entrant, No. 4 Program Trading, has both expecting Asbury Park to go below his 8-1 morning line.
The favorite: No. 6 Rhetorical
No. 6 Rhetorical, the 5-2 morning-line favorite, drew limited enthusiasm. The Will Walden-trained 5-year-old gelding won the Grade 1 Coolmore Turf Mile last fall, but his most recent start in the Maker’s Mark Mile was disappointing. Aragona questions whether jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. will commit to the lead after passing on that opportunity last out. “If he’s going to be the favorite in here, I’m going to bet somebody else,” Beer said.
The handicappers’ verdict
David Aragona’s picks
No. 1 Corruption
No. 3 Asbury Park
No. 9 Test Score
Mike Beer’s picks
No. 9 Test Score
No. 3 Asbury Park
No. 10 Make Me King
For more from David and Mike, check out this video preview:
Daily Racing Form is the most trusted source for horse racing news and information. Get an edge when you play the races with DRF.com.
Get DRF’s Complete Derby Betting Package with PPs, Clocker Reports & Expert Picks
Access Full Past Performances and Expert Analysis for Today’s Races at DRF.com
Get more Daily Racing Form horse racing picks on a daily basis on our VSiN Horse Racing page.
