Kentucky Derby and Churchill Downs Picks for Saturday, May 3 from Mike Somich:
It’s time for the 151st Run for the Roses! The weather is going to be a big storyline throughout the day, but it’s not a huge factor in my Kentucky Derby handicap. The majority of the runners are sired by horses who have consistently produced very good horses on the off track. If the rain comes throughout the day, there is no one horse that would get a huge upgrade.
Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, Race #12
This year’s Kentucky Derby features multiple storylines, but I believe the main discussion will be how the pace materializes. With speed on the rail, the outside and right up the middle, I’m expecting a hot early pace, which allows me to toss out a handful of horses and focus on the horses coming from off the pace. #18 Sovereignty will be one of the main beneficiaries of a quick pace. He’s won over this track coming from last in the Grade 3 Street Sense last year, and he showed improvement over the winter in his two starts at Gulfstream this spring. He will need to get a clean trip, but as the forgotten short price, currently at 9-1, he has everything it takes to win this race.
The favorite, #8 Journalism, is versatile enough to handle any type of pace. He was awesome in both starts at Santa Anita, cementing himself as the horse to beat. The post draw was perfect for him. He should be able to get close to the rail on the first turn, based on the horses around him and spring into action on the far turn. He very much is the horse to beat.
#14 Tiztastic is one that has been slipping under the radar at 20-1. He is a very athletic horse that can win races to holes on the backstretch to help him close from the back of the pack. He won the Louisiana Derby closing into a hot pace while weaving through traffic and will look to replicate that run again today.
#21 Baeza drew into the field with scratches on Thursday and Friday, adding another major player in this race. He’s a half-brother to Derby winner Mage and Belmont winner Dornoch and was the closest horse to Journalism all year in a second-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby. He gets Flavien Prat to ride, who has been the best Derby jockey over the last 5 years. I’ll be using a variety of others in my Superfecta plays, including #3 Final Gambit, #7 Luxor Café, and #13 Publisher.
Top 4: 18-8-14-21
The Bet – $50 Win #18 – Will be playing Exactas and a Trifecta with the top 3 as well.
Turf Classic, Churchill Downs, Race #11
This year’s running of the Turf Classic is absolutely wide open with the lukewarm favorite #1 Integration drawing the rail at 4-1. He has been a consistent player at this level since early 2024 and fits with this bunch. He should get a good stalking, ground-saving trip from the inside, but I’ll go price hunting on top.
#4 Redistricting disappointed in his seasonal debut in what was a very oddly run race won by a 60-1 shot. His two races in 2024 show the ability that he possesses, and if he can improve off of those, he will be very tough in this spot. He’s 10-1 on the morning line, but let’s be honest, that’s a pipedream. I expect something in the 5-1 range when the break from the gate, and I’m just fine with that.
#6 Taking Candy enters the race after breaking through with a win at the graded stakes level at Fair Grounds. As he has matured, he has learned to rate, which helped him develop into a force at longer distances. As the second start in his 5-year-old season, he has the ability to improve here as well.
#8 Cameo Performance is a price worth using here. He improved big time off the break while chasing in a paceless race. At 20-1, I’m willing to take a shot that he improves again 2nd off the layoff and is involved in a wide open race late.
Top 4: 4-1-8-6
The Bet: $50 Win #4
Spot Bets:
Churchill Downs Race #8 – $50 Win #6
Churchill Downs Race #10 – $50 Win #7
