Playing the Kentucky Derby Superfecta:
The holy grail of betting on horses is hitting the Superfecta in the Kentucky Derby. Not only is it one of the toughest bets to hit each year, the payouts are exceptional. Over the last 10 years, the average Kentucky Derby Superfecta has paid $51,094.90 for a $1 base wager highlighted by the $321,500 payout when Rich Strike won. To hit a Superfecta, you must select the first four horses in the correct order that they cross the finish line. As you can imagine, with 20 horses that is very difficult. That being said, it’s a fun lottery ticket to play every year.
When I break down the Superfecta I like to group horses with possible finishing places and then structure out how to play the Superfecta. Let’s take a look at the possible winners first.
Win Contenders
The most obvious win contender is #8 Journalism, who will be the post time favorite. The pace, which we will get to shortly, sets up well for him and drawing the #8 stall only makes him a more logical winner. The only issue there is with him in the winning (1st) position in the Superfecta is that it limits the upside of the payout. #18 Sovereignty also makes sense as a winner, he has won over the track before and should have plenty of pace to chase early. Longer shots that are playable on top include #14 Tiztastic, who took advantage of a hot pace in the Louisiana Derby and weaved his way through traffic to get a win.
Throw out horses
I mentioned we would get to the pace and here we are. This Kentucky Derby is setting up to be one of the hottest paces that I can remember. The draw did not help any either with speed drawing inside (#1 Citizen Bull, #2 Neoequos, and #5 American Promise) and the outside (#20 Owen Almighty). Horses with speed from those posts are forced to gun it right from the gate to try to get the forward position that they are looking for. Add into the mix #12 East Avenue, who may be the fastest of the bunch, and it creates a terrible scenario for any horses that want the lead. I am going to chuck out this bunch from my tickets.
Other horses to consider for tickets
#3 Final Gambit enters for trainer Brad Cox off of an off-the-pace win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. He is unlikely to win, but a similar run makes him possible for the Superfecta. #9 Burnham Square looked great in the Holy Bull and won the Blue Grass, but he is a cut below the top contenders. He is another who may get a great trip from off the pace. #16 Coal Battle has the upside to run 3rd or 4th here. He will be closer to the pace, but has held on with similar trips in the past. #21 Baeza who draws in is useful in the 3rd and 4th positions.
The favorite I am not using
I won’t be using #17 Sandman. The pace and the draw set up fine for him, but he is a goofball. He won from the back of the pack in the Arkansas Derby after there were blistering fractions up front. When you watch the stretch run of that race, he is all over the place, struggling to run straight and switch leads. He is simply not as mature of a racer as others in this field. If he puts it together, he could win the race, but he has not yet in eight races so I am not willing to bet now is the time.
My bets
Okay, I am going to put together three bets depending on how much someone would be looking to spend. Each time you see a / in the bet, that separates the place the horse needs to finish. For example, this bet:
1,2 / 1,2,3 / 1,2,3,4 / 1,2,3,4,5
Would have to have the 1 or 2 win, the 1, 2 or 3 run second, the 1,2,3, or 4 run third and the 1,2,3,4,5 run 4th to win. For a $1 base bet, it would cost $16 since there are 24 different combinations for those events to happen.
Small Budget Superfecta: 8,18 / 8,10,18 / 8,10,14,18,21 / 8,10,14,18,21 = $24
Medium Budget Superfecta: 8,10,18 / 8,10,14,18 / 8,10,14,18,21 / 3,8,10,14,18,21 = $81
Big Budget Superfecta: 8,10,14,18 / 8,10,14,18 / 3,8,10,14,18,21 / 3,8,10,13,14,18,21 = $192
#10 Grande was scratched Friday morning, so remove him from any potential tickets.
