Kentucky Downs Picks from Mike Somich:
Let’s head to middle America for a European-style turf track, Kentucky Downs. It’s a sight to watch with unique turns and both uphill and downhill portions of the track. When playing this course, it’s important to look if a horse has had success over the course. Due to all the quirks, horses who have run well in the past tend to run well again. Kentucky Downs also posts the largest purses of any track in the county. Saturday features multiple million-dollar-plus races and thus brings in some major turfers from Europe to run for big money. Let’s look at today’s Kentucky Downs picks.
The Music City, Kentucky Downs, Race #7
This race is going to be run at 6.5 furlongs, but at Kentucky Downs, due to the track, it plays slightly longer so I like to look for horses that have had success at a mile. #3 Time to Dazzle fits the bill, coming off a gate-to-wire one mile win up at Woodbine. She should improve second off the layoff and will be forwardly placed which is important here. If she can run back to that race, she will be tough.
#4 Pipsy shipped over to the US after back-to-back wins in Ireland and kept the winning streak going in her first effort on this side of the pond. She got caught in a speed dual last time out and quit, but shortening back up today should suit her well.
If #15 Twirling Queen draws in, she will be the favorite here and deserving of the money. She has won her last four races, but the post makes it tough to put her on top.
#6 Amidst Waves is the price that I like here at 20-1 on the morning line. She gets the services of Flavian Prat, who has been on fire this meet and returns off the layoff for trainer George Weaver, who is having a solid year. Her two-year-old races fit, but she will need to improve on the three-year-old efforts to be a player here.
Kentucky Downs Picks: 4-3-15-6
Bets: $50 Win #4
The Mint Millions, Kentucky Downs, Race #8
I mentioned the Euro shippers in the open, and we’ve got a real one here in the #10 Ancient Rome. He also fits the bill for horse for the course with a win in this race last year. He ran at Colonial Downs in the Arlington Million, where he finished in a good third to set up for this spot. His regular European rider ships over to ride here as well, which is always a good sign.
#8 Talk of the Nation also exits the Arlington Million, finishing ¾ of a length behind Ancient Rome. He will be forward early and should get a very good trip and take the lead in the stretch. If he can keep it going, he is the most likely horse to upset Ancient Rome.
Another Euro, #2 Mountain Bear, will try the US turf for the second time. His first effort was a very good second in the Breeders Cup so the talent in there. He has been running against some of the best in Europe so this is a drop in class. He is liked at 10-1 if he isn’t too far back early.
#3 Irish Aces wheels right back off a win on August 29th here at Kentucky Downs. He stalked and won that day and should sit a similar trip again today. It’s a step up in class, but it would not be a shocker.
Kentucky Downs Picks: 10-8-2-3
Bets: $25 Exacta 10 / 2,8
Spot Plays:
Kentucky Downs Race #12 – $50 Win #7
Kentucky Downs Race #6 – $50 Win #4
