Kentucky Jockey Club 2025
A field of seven is entered for the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, a Grade 2 Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race. This is the first prep race for points that we’ve had in four weeks, as the race calendar has had a little bit of a lull. Fortunately, the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes is the start of five prep races over the next four weekends.
Given that it’s a prep race for the Derby, it goes without saying that this is a race featuring 2-year-old horses only and it will be the fifth straight prep race going a distance of 1 1/16 miles.
The Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes will be Race 10 in your Saturday Churchill Downs program with post time expected to be 5:25 p.m. ET on November 29.
Kentucky Jockey Club 2025 Entries, Horses, Jockeys, and Trainers:
| Post | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Odds |
| 1 | Spice Runner | J. Rosario | S. Asmussen | 12-1 |
| 2 | Cherokee Nation | F. Prat | B. Baffert | 3-1 |
| 3 | Dr. Kapur | J. Ortiz | S. Joseph Jr. | 8-1 |
| 4 | Soldier N Diplomat | T. Gaffalione | S. Asmussen | 4-1 |
| 5 | Very Connected | E. Esquivel | K. McPeek | 15-1 |
| 6 | Further Ado | I. Ortiz Jr. | B. Cox | 7/5 |
| 7 | Universe | B. Hernandez Jr. | K. McPeek | 9/2 |
We have three horses in the field coming off of a win, but two of them are in maiden races and one from an allowance optional claiming. Further Ado is the big name here, as the Brad Cox colt rolled by 20 lengths and put up a 98 Beyer in his third career effort. This will be his stakes debut and also the stakes debut for Cherokee Nation and Dr. Kapur.
In that respect, we have a pretty big gap in terms of experience here. Spice Runner has raced in three graded stakes and one listed stakes. Also, in terms of the distance, Cherokee Nation, Dr. Kapur, and Soldier N Diplomat have not gone this long.
This race awards Road to the Kentucky Derby points on a 10-5-3-2-1 scale. So far, Spice Runner has 11, Universe has 8, Very Connected has 3, and nobody else in the field has accumulated points.
Here are some thoughts on each horse at the odds at time of publish:
1. Spice Runner (12-1; Rosario/Asmussen): Two Gun Runner colts are in the field and Spice Runner is the first, drawing the rail post for Steve Asmussen and Joel Rosario. The son of Simple Surprise for Winchell Thoroughbreds will be making his sixth start of the year. He won his maiden, then finished fifth and second before winning the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes right here at Churchill Downs.
A disappointing fifth in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity came as no surprise to handicappers, as his odds were in the 18-1 range. A stumble at the gate did feed into how that race went and he’s proven he can win at this distance at Churchill Downs, but I don’t think he’ll be a popular pick, especially because recent workouts have been pedestrian at best.
2. Cherokee Nation (3-1; Prat/Baffert): An interesting wild card in this race is Cherokee Nation by way of Not This Time and Believe In Charlie. After runs at Del Mar and Santa Anita, Bob Baffert opted to ship this California colt to the Bluegrass State. He ran a solid second to Mr. A. P. over a mile on the Santa Anita dirt and lost by a nose to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up.
Not This Time broke his maiden at Ellis Park and then went out and won the Iroquois under the twin spires at 1 1/16 miles in his graded stakes debut. A 106 Equibase Speed Figure stacks up really well in this race and Baffert has gotten Flavien Prat to hop aboard after regular rider Juan Hernandez had the most recent ride.
3. Dr. Kapur (8-1; J. Ortiz/Joseph): The route debut for Dr. Kapur will have plenty of watchful eyes. He steamrolled the field over seven furlongs at Keeneland after a very good run over six furlongs in his Saratoga debut. Dr. Kapur was a close second to Big Dom back in August, who then went on to the Breeders’ Futurity and ran sixth.
This is a much better field for Saffie Joseph Jr.’s son of McKinzie and Ava’s Kitten. Recent works have been strong, but the horse hasn’t gone five furlongs in training since October 4, not to mention the distance increase for this actual race. It was nearly a wire-to-wire win last time out and he widened the gap throughout the race, but this is an endurance test and a stiffer set of contenders.
4. Soldier N Diplomat (4-1; Gaffalione/Asmussen): The second Asmussen entry will come from mid-pack, as Soldier N Diplomat exits from the 4 spot at the starting gun. Like a lot of temperamental and inconsistent 2-year-olds, we’ve had very different performances out of the son of Army Mule and Diplomatic Miss for St. Elias Stable. He won his maiden over six furlongs before leveling up for the G1 Hopeful, where he finished fourth, well behind Ted Noffey, Buetane, and Curtain Call.
That ride was for Ricardo Santana Jr. and now Tyler Gaffalione gets the mount again after leading Soldier N Diplomat to an easy nine-length win over a mile about a month ago as nearly an odds-on favorite. But, it was a nice bounce back effort and moving up to a mile didn’t seem to bother him.
5. Very Connected (15-1; Esquivel/McPeek): Very Connected has gone this distance twice in his young career, as Emmanuel Esquivel gets the ride for the horse’s third career Churchill Downs start. Two turns under the twin spires went well in September with a maiden victory and Very Connected followed that up by finishing third in the G3 Street Sense behind Incredibolt and McPeek stablemate Universe.
Esquivel couldn’t evade early traffic, as Very Connected got bumped off-stride, but closed very well to hit the board as more than a 13-1 shot. Maybe we can read something into Brian Hernandez getting the mount on Universe. Maybe we shouldn’t, as Hernandez was hurt for a time. But it is hard to ignore that Esquivel hasn’t had many top mounts, coming into this week with a 14% Win% and a 38% WPS%, the lowest of his career.
6. Further Ado (7/5; I. Ortiz/Cox): The second son of Gun Runner in this field is the favorite, as Further Ado posted an enormous 114 Equibase Speed Figure (or, if you prefer, 98 Beyer) his last time out on the Keeneland soil. After a couple of really ho-hum performances, including a fifth in his debut race that Soldier N Diplomat won, the horse showed a real affinity for 1 1/16 miles. The 20-1 shot in the first Kentucky Derby pool behind only Ted Noffey and Brant has a real chance to open eyes here.
Obviously any 20-length win will do that, but this is a better field and handicappers want to know if the last effort was an outlier relative to what we saw from his first two runs. Irad Ortiz Jr. is back in the irons here for trainer Brad Cox and Spendthrift Farm.
7. Universe (9/2; Hernandez/McPeek): There is no such thing as a safe pick in a 2-year-old race, but Universe has started three times and hit the board in all three races. He’s been arguably the most consistent runner in this field and Kenny McPeek has his most trusted rider holding the whip. Even though the results show 1st, 3rd, 2nd, Universe has probably run better each time out, including a third in the G3 Champagne at Aqueduct and a second in the G3 Street Sense in his Kentucky debut.
Jose Ortiz had the ride last time out and it was a strong effort aboard the favorite, but he didn’t fire quite as strongly with just three weeks off. Now he’s on more than a month and I feel like he’s ready for a big run, especially from the outside and with this distance in his pocket.
Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes Predictions
Further Ado may very well win this race and completely shake up the Kentucky Derby Future Pool odds. But, I can’t take him at 7/5 with one enormous performance and two very pedestrian ones, even one with Irad in the mount.
I’ll put Universe over Further Ado, with Cherokee Nation and Soldier N Diplomat underneath.
Prediction: 7-6-2-4
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