Mike Somich’s Oaklawn Park and Aqueduct Picks:
Happy Birthday to every horse! The universal birthday of January 1st has come and gone, which means we now have a new crop of three-year-olds who are now on the path to the Kentucky Derby. This Saturday marks the first cross-country prep day of the year, with Derby points on the line at Gulfstream Park, Aqueduct, Oaklawn and Santa Anita.
The Smarty Jones, Race #9, Oaklawn Park
The mile and a sixteenth Smarty Jones opens the prep season for Oaklawn leading up to the Arkansas Derby. As per usual, the first round of preps often has horses entering with more questions than answers and this race is no different. #6 Hot Property is the morning line favorite from the Brad Cox barn, but enters the race off of a maiden-breaking score on first asking. That was a gate-to-wire win at today’s distance, but he faced no pressure in that spot. The breeding is there, now the class will be tested.
One of the issues for Hot Property is #1 Kale’s Angel, who will break from the rail and be a pest for as long as he can. Last time out, he won nicely, but that was at five and a half furlongs, where he went as fast as he could from the start. That was his first dirt start, so maybe he can take a step forward here, but I would need a way better price than the morning line of 2-1 to play him. He quit after pressuring the pace, going a mile on the turf two back. He’ll go longer with just as much pressure today on a surface he is untested on.
#5 Mo Quality also has quite a few questions to answer. He looked much better in his second start, a nice win going six and a half furlongs, and he clearly wants more distance when you watch him run. However, of the group, he sold for the least and has the weakest connections. He has speed that should allow him to stay in touch with the top two. It will be a question of talent when they turn for home since he should sit the trip. The price is far better than the aforementioned horses as well at 5-1.
#8 Coal Battle offers the most class of the young field fresh off a win in the Springboard Mile. He’s the most logical horse to hit the board, but it feels like all three of the other rivals need to bring less than their respective A-game for him to win the race.
Oaklawn Park Picks: 5-6-8-1
Bets: $50 Win #5
Jerome Stakes, Race #8, Aqueduct
Since this prep is run at a one-turn mile, there is a boatload of speed signed on, which set up the race wonderfully for two horses. #8 McAfee enters as the favorite off a hard-fought second place going this distance at Churchill Downs. He won his debut at six furlongs, coming from the back of the pack, so we know that he can pass horses. He was closer to the pace in his one-mile effort, but his hand was forced there, drawing the rail. Today’s outside draw is much better for him tactically.
To his inside, #7 Studlydoright has the most experience in the field, including a win over the track and at the distance in a stakes race. He ran well against some of the best last summer at Saratoga while coming from off the pace. I am willing to throw his last race out, which was at a mile and an eighth and simply looked too long for him.
Of the speed, #6 Cyclone State is the most interesting to me. It took him a while to figure it out, but his last two races have been very nice wins over this track and distance. The main knock here is he’s one of five horses who likely will want the lead.
#5 Georgia Magic is the longshot I’m interested in here. It’s his second career start, so he is likely to improve, and he will need to do so in a big way to compete. He was bet first time out and is bred to want more distance than the six furlongs he went. It may be too tall of a task for him here, but I expect him to outrun his 10-1 odds.
Aqueduct Picks: 7-8-6-5
Bets: $50 Win #7
Spot Plays:
Aqueduct, Race #5 – $50 Win #4
Oaklawn Park, Race #8 – $50 Win #6
