Daily Racing Form handicappers David Aragona and Mike Beer analyze the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, the local prep for the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.
Sunday’s featured race at Oaklawn Park is the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes – the 11th race on an 12-race card, with a post time of 5:23 p.m. Central. The $1 million race awards Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top five finishers on a 50-25-15-10-5 scale. The field goes with nine after Bravaro was cross-entered in Saturday’s Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park; trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. confirmed he will run there instead. Aragona and Beer land on different horses to win, each backing one of the two horses expected to vie for favoritism.
The horse to beat: No. 2 Litmus Test
Aragona’s pick to win, No. 2 Litmus Test enters as the standout on figures among horses currently in the race. Trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Flavien Prat from post 1, this Nyquist colt has run some of the fastest races of any 3-year-old on the Derby trail this season. The 96 Beyer Speed Figure from his Los Alamitos Futurity win can be picked apart – he was facing a pair of Baffert stablemates – but he was a tough-trip fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, finishing against a track bias that was playing strongly toward speed and inside position. He was three wide around both turns that day and kept running. Aragona sees him as underrated heading into this spot and expects Prat to send him from the rail, giving the colt every opportunity to control the pace from a perfect draw. He’s got a clean work tab and appears to have filled out physically since his 2-year-old campaign.
Beer’s pick to win: No. 4 Blackout Time
Beer sides with the morning-line favorite No. 4 Blackout Time, making his 3-year-old debut for trainer Kenny McPeek. This Not This Time colt was one of the best juveniles of his crop, most recently finishing a strong second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity behind 2-year-old champion male Ted Noffey. Blackout Time was a regulatory vet scratch from the Breeders’ Cup – the vets flagged a concern – but McPeek has since reported nothing was found and the horse has trained consistently since returning. Beer acknowledges the uncertainty following a first start off a longer layoff but notes that Blackout Time’s maiden win at Ellis Park, when he stretched out to a mile and buried the field, was a serious two-turn performance for a 2-year-old. He ran even with Litmus Test through much of the Breeders’ Futurity, and Beer believes he’ll improve significantly from 2 to 3.
The wild card: No. 7 Silent Tactic
Both handicappers have respect for No. 7 Silent Tactic, the Mark Casse-trained, John Oxley-owned runner who rallied from last to win the Southwest Stakes last time out at 12-1. Ridden by Cristian Torres, he was still deep in the field turning for home but accelerated powerfully once asked, steamrolling the field with a closing burst that Aragona called more impressive on replay than it initially appeared. The concern is that the setup may not repeat itself – the Southwest featured horses that didn’t want the distance, and there is less obvious pace in the Rebel. Beer puts him third in his picks and notes that last time was likely the optimal moment to back him at a big price.
The rest of the field
No. 3 Class President, lightly raced for Todd Pletcher, is the toughest call in the race. He showed real promise on debut and ran respectably behind a quality horse in Solitude Dude in the Swale. His pedigree – by Uncle Mo – suggests longer is better, and this is his first try at two turns. Both handicappers find him interesting but wonder if the race has come up a bit too tough at this stage of his development.
No. 6 Strategic Risk won the Smarty Jones in January for trainer Mark Casse but regressed badly in the Southwest, never appearing comfortable and going completely backward on the far turn. Both handicappers agree he’s better than that effort but aren’t willing to back him here.
No. 10 Soldier N Diplomat has genuine talent – he showed it on debut at Saratoga – but has shortened stride in the final sixteenth in both of his two-turn attempts, leading both handicappers to wonder if a sprint distance suits him better.
No. 8 Rancho Santa Fe improved in the Southwest but didn’t impress enough to warrant a price in a tougher spot.
No. 5 Honey’s to Blame is an Arkansas-bred who beat open company last out but faces a significant class jump here.
No. 9 Time for Music has gone the wrong way since his 2-year-old season, and neither handicapper is interested.
The handicappers’ verdict
David Aragona’s picks
No. 2 Litmus Test
No. 4 Blackout Time
No. 7 Silent Tactic
No. 3 Class President
Mike Beer’s picks
No. 4 Blackout Time
No. 7 Silent Tactic
No. 2 Litmus Test
No. 8 Rancho Santa Fe
Aragona goes with the recency of Litmus Test and the Baffert connections from the ideal rail draw, while Beer takes a chance that Blackout Time takes a step forward from his excellent 2-year-old season and justifies his status as the morning-line favorite. Silent Tactic lands on both sets of picks as the most compelling deeper option – if the pace sets up in his favor again.
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