Mike Somich’s Oaklawn and Gulfstream Picks:
After an exciting John Battaglia last night, we turn to Oaklawn and a loaded 12 race card. You’ve got a little of everything including some very nice horses debuting, six stakes races and the purse for every race over $100,000!
The Rebel, Oaklawn Park, Race #13
With 50 Derby points on the line to the winner, we are starting to get serious in the run up to the roses. Finishing first or second here will likely be enough points to get into the gate at Churchill and thus we see our first horses shipping in.
Trainer Bob Baffert is no stranger to shipping in and winning at Oaklawn and he will try to continue his success here with #5 Madakat Road. I was high on the horse last time out at Santa Anita and he ran just okay, but finished third behind two other Baffert runners who blocked for each other the majority of the trip around the oval. He is bred to love the additional ground he gets today and the pace set up should land him in a prime stalking spot with multiple horses out front ensuring a lively pace. The fact this is the horse Baffert sent is telling. With $1.25 Million on the line and multiple runners he could have sent, it is a positive sign he’s trusting Madakat here. The morning line price is right as well at 9/2.
#1 Coal Battle has shown his versatility winning three straight races at different distances and different tracks. He won on the lead in the Smarty Jones here at Oaklawn, but was also able to close to victory in the prior two races. Today, he will be off the pace and saving ground on the rail before making his move around the far turn. He’ll likely need to take a slight step forward to win, however, he has answered every question asked thus far and, at 10-1, he is worth including on tickets.
#4 Hypnus is the wild card of the field. He has run only once and that was over a muddy track. That race resulted in a dominant and eye-catching win while being cold on the tote board. His trainer Kenny McPeek sent him out that day with his go-to jockey Brian Hernandez Jr., who returns to ride again here. The two are clicking at an obscene 28% over the last two years at this circuit. He has multiple obstacles to clear, but his 10-1 price is worth the risk. If he gets bet down to 4-1 or less, watch out, he is live.
#13 Tiztastic is one of a handful in here coming out of the Southwest. Like many of the others, he had trouble every step of the way. He ran into traffic multiple times in the race, was cut off and hung wide. He will get a big jockey upgrade from Keith Asmussen to Jose Ortiz and is dangerous with the right trip.
The Bet – $50 Win #5
The Honeybee, Oaklawn Park, Race #9
Let’s put some shine on the fillies who will be running for Kentucky Oaks points here! We will start with the favorite, #1 Muhimma. She is 7/5 on the morning line for trainer Brad Cox and she has been awesome while maintaining a perfect 3-for-3 record. That being said, the waters – and the pace – get quite a bit deeper here. Her win in the Demoiselle was impressive, but she did not beat much that day and she had an easy time up front. With at least three other horses who will want the front here, it will be no such easy lead today. She’s got the best chance to win, but the price is going to be way too short so let’s look elsewhere.
#6 Take Charge Milady enters off back-to-back wins over the Oaklawn Park track while working up to this distance. She has improved in all four career races and, while she has speed, she likes to sit mid-pack and close. That sets up for an ideal trip today with all the speed signed on. She’ll need to improve again, but the gap between the 1 and the 5 is not as wide as the odds would suggest.
A live longshot in here is the #5 Quickick who has not raced since the Breeders Cup. She debuted and won at Saratoga before shipping to Keeneland to run in a Grade 1 race where she finished second to Immersive, who won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. Quickick then ran a solid third in the Breeders’ Cup after missing the break. Her workouts suggest she is ready to go which makes her dangerous at 12-1.
#9 Look Forward ships in from California and will try to beat Muhimma to the punch early. She has won two of her three starts on the West Coast with the lone loss a good second place to Tenma who is considered one of the best in the division. There is buzz on the backstretch at Santa Anita about this horse and shipper her to Arkansas for this spot screams confidence.
The Bet – $50 Win #6
Other bets –
Gulfstream Park Race #5 – $50 Win #7
Gulfstream Park Race #12 – $50 Win #2
