Preakness and Pimlico Best Bets

Happy Preakness day! Muth scratching was a huge development mid-week, but it sets up for a wide-open race. I was expecting Mystik Dan to get the hammer, but the Will Pay pool tells a different story. Your favorite in the Black-Eyed Susan/Preakness Daily Double is Tuscan Gold. Catching Freedom is a close second choice, followed by Imagination and then your Derby winner Mystik Dan. If those prices hold, then you can expect Mystik Dan to break from the gate at close to 3-1. While I still think that is shorter than the true odds, it’s much closer than I expected. Let’s look at today’s Pimlico best bets.

The Preakness, Pimlico, Race #13

As you can tell from above, I am against the Derby winner Mystik Dan here. He got a perfect trip in the Derby and was 20-1. He will go off at his shortest price ever in a stakes race today, and I am not willing to jump on board again at that number. The other Baffert horse before the scratch was #9 Imagination. With his stablemate’s scratch, he now takes over the tag as lone speed in this race. If he clears from the outside post, we are looking at a slower pace and a great setup for him to go from gate to wire. He’s got loads of talent but allows horses to run with him. He needs to learn to put horses away, and when he does, watch out.

 

#8 Tuscan Gold comes into the race lightly raced with the opportunity to improve. Chad Brown has proven to be proficient when skipping the Derby to run a horse in the Preakness, and he’s taking the same path here.

#3 Catching Freedom ran a good fourth in the Derby and beat Tuscan Gold in the Louisana Derby but comes in off short rest compared to Tuscan Gold. Cox wheeling back off two weeks is a good sign, and the Derby most likely took less out of him than any of the horses that ran at Churchill.

The longshot I like is #2 Uncle Heavy. His trip last time out was a nightmare after having to break from the far outside. He adds the services of Irad Ortiz today and is second off the layoff. He can handle an off track as well and should get a good ground-saving trip.

Picks: 9-3-8-2

Pimlico Best Bets:
$50 Win – 9
$5 Trifecta 3,9 / 2,3,8,9  / 2,3,8,9

The Turf Sprint, Pimlico, Race #11

One of my favorite trainers to bet is Jorge Duarte Jr. He only trains for Colts Neck Stables, so he is not well known, but when he runs, he means business. He’s got the #1 Grooms All Bizness in this one. The trip sets up well for this stalker who should get a rail run and the price is right at 8-1.

Pimlico Best Bet: $50 Win #1

Sir Barton Stakes, Pimlico, Race #10

#5 Corporate Power is the most likely winner for me on the card today. He’s run well all three starts of his career and drew a field that he should get a very good trip against. He’s had success on a fast track and over the off going.

Pimlico Best Bet: $50 Win #5

Maryland Stakes Sprint, Pimlico, Race #8

#2 Prevalence steps back up in class to take on stakes company and finds a good spot here. He should be able to stalk and pounce while saving all the ground on the turn. Irad Ortiz jumps back aboard. He’s ridden Prevalence twice to a win and a second.

Pimlico Best Bet: $50 Win #2

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