Saratoga Picks for Saturday, August 23:
TRACKING MR. ED: It was a rather chalky Travers Day eve. When all was said and run, the average $2 Win ticket returned less than $9. Jockey Joel Rosario had three winners, trainer Linda Rice had a pair, too. In Mr. Ed’s FAMILY FEUD (see below), spotlighting the race for most wins during the meet by a rider, Jose Ortiz booted home two winners, while Irad was shut out (a rare occasion). Even Mr. Ed enjoyed the chalk fest by posting a few winners.
IT’S TRAVERS DAY: It’s true, Mr. Ed never promised a dozen winners on Travers Day, but he did promise 12 wagers (for a reasonable investment amount). Today’s 14-race card is top shelf. There’s something for everyone: 2YO maidens (next year’s Triple Crown competitors might just be among them); 3YOs (one might find this year’s Horse of the Year here); always competitive allowance and claiming contests; and six graded stakes (five of them G1) chock full of winners and will-be champions. The action gets underway at sunny Saratoga this morning at 11:10 a.m. ET/8:10 a.m. PT and reaches a crescendo at post time for Race 13 THE TRAVERS at 6:14 p.m. ET/3:14 p.m. PT. Here’s a look at Mr. Ed’s dozen wagers.
Mr. Ed’s Saratoga Picks for Saturday (8/23)
Race 1 (11:10 a.m. ET/8:10 a.m. PT) — $100K MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT for 2YOs going 6 furlongs
Kicking off Travers Day with a DD: #2 AMBASSADOR BLUE (5-1 morning line), for one of my favorite trainers, Danny Gargan, who sends the rookie out for a second start after a shaky debut effort. With blinkers added, Joel Rosario picks up the mount. My other choice is #6 BOTTAS (7-2) for new trainer Miguel Clement, who sends out the youngster with Flavien Prat in the irons.
SARATOGA SELECTION: $5 Daily Double of 2,6/1,4. ($20)
Race 2 (11:43 a.m. ET/8:43 a.m. PT) — To complete the DD bet, Mr. Ed likes #1 EARLY ADOPTER & #1A ACTIVIST INVESTING (both at 7-2 morning line), trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Joel Ortiz and Manny Franco, respectively. Also, #4 BEUYS (6-1) for promising trainer Keri Brion with invading jockey Paco Lopez, who has won three of six mounts thus far at the meet.
Race 3 (12:17 p.m. ET/9:17 a.m. PT) — $100K MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT for 2YO fillies and mares going 6½ furlongs
I may not care for Kentucky-based trainer Tom Amoss as a TV analyst, but his barn is alive with strong performers and FTSers #1 CELEBRITY QUEST and #1A BET THE GRAY (both at 4-1 morning line) look promising. Luis Saez is listed to ride both, so one might scratch.
SARATOGA SELECTION: $10 to Win. ($10)
Race 4 (12:51 p.m. ET/9:51 a.m. PT) — $90K MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT for NY-breds 3YOs & up going 6 furlongs
Mr. Ed likes probable favorite #7 KEEPINITREAL (5-2 morning line) for the tip-top team of Chad Brown and Flavien Prat. Strong closer gets blinkers to improve his habit of missing break. If they work, he’s a winner, really.
SARATOGA SELECTION: $10 to Win. ($10)
Race 5 (1:25 p.m. ET/10:25 a.m. PT) — $95K ALLOWANCE for NY-bred fillies and mares going 5½-furlongs on the grass
I like three: #6 ANNASCAUL (5-2 morning line) for Miguel Clement and Irad Ortiz, Jr.; #7 OLIVA’S GRACE (6-1) with “guest” rider Shaun Bridgmohan, and #10 SILSBEE (3-1), who gets rider change to HOF veteran Johnny Velazquez. Any two of three get the money.
SARATOGA SELECTION: $5 Exacta Box. ($30)
Race 6 (2:00 p.m. ET/11:00 a.m. PT) — $100K MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT for 2YOs going 6 furlongs
Mr. Ed is betting on #8 STIMULATE (6-1 morning line) to upset the field for the tag team of Bill Mott and go-to guy Junior Alvarado based on breeding (son of Tapit) and speedy works. He’s got my wagering juices flowing.
SARATOGA SELECTION: $10 to Win. ($10)
Race 7 (2:35 p.m. ET/11:35 a.m. PT) — $400K G2 LAKE PLACID STAKES for 3YO fillies going a mile on the turf
I might get burned ‘cause I’ll bet on #1 PLAY WITH FIRE (2-1 morning line) for leading trainer Chad Brown and one of his stable of top riders, Flavien Prat. Gal has shown a propensity to finish in the money. I’m counting on her to do it again today.
SARATOGA SELECTION: $20 to Win. ($20)
Race 8 (3:09 p.m. ET/12:09 p.m. PT) — $95K ALLOWANCE for fillies and mares, 3YOs & up going 1 1/16-mile on the turf
Mr. Ed’s PLAY OF THE DAY is young filly #8 LOVEUMISSUMEANIT (5-1 morning line) for little-known trainer James Begg with limited starters, but obviously knows what he’s doing (4-2-2-0). I like her and him — and I mean it!
SARATOGA SELECTION: $10 to Win & Place. ($20)
Races 10-13 — all stakes $.50 Pick 4*
R10: 3,5,6
R11: 6,7,9
R12: 1,4,7
R13: 1,4 ($27)
* In the event of a scratch, the post-time favorite is the substitute pick.
Race 10 (4:22 p.m. ET/1:22 p.m. PT) — $500K ALLEN JERKENS MEMORIAL for 3YOs going 7 furlongs
I confess I am a Bob Baffert fan. He has done far more good for racing than most others. I like both his entrants here, but will confidently bet #3 BARNES (9-2 morning line). He was in too deep in the last race against JOURNALISM, who’s not here.
SARATOGA SELECTION: $10 Win & Place. ($20)
Race 11 (4:59 p.m. ET/3:59 p.m. PT) — $500K BALLERINA STAKES for fillies and mares, 3YOs & up going 7 furlongs
Mr. Ed’s PLAY OF THE DAY includes #6 ZEITLOS (6-1 morning line), a longshot for Steve Asmussen with Junior Alvarado returning to ride. Others on my ticket are #7 SCYLLA (5-2) for Bill Mott, and #9 HOPE ROAD (3-1) for Bob Baffert.
SARATOGA SELECTION: $10 to Win and $5 Exacta Box. ($40)
Race 13 (6:14 p.m. ET/3:14 p.m. PT) — $1,25K G1 TRAVERS STAKES for 3YOs going 1¼-mile
Mr. Ed was last at Saratoga on Travers Day nine years ago when he witnessed the great Arrogate ($25.40), trained by Bob Baffert, upset a 13-horse field while setting new Travers and 1¼ -mile Saratoga Race Course records (1:59.36) in destroying a dozen other top 3Y0s. The graveyard of champions indeed! Is there another Arrogate waiting in the wings to take a bow in the Winner’s Circle this year? Mr. Ed thinks so. Based on the past performances and speed figures of this year’s five Travers entrants, the overwhelming favorite is #4 Sovereignty (2-5 morning line) for trainer Bill Mott and jockey Junior Alvarado. The easy thing to do would be to punch this guy’s ticket. Not today. Mr. Ed believes the favorite has reached his peak and is ripe for the taking. My pick is resurgent, lightning-fast #1 MAGNITUDE (2-1), who is yet to run his best race. He’s Mr. Ed’s BEST BET OF THE DAY. Trained by all-time winningest conditioner Steve Asmussen, the never-bashful, popular horseman expresses his confidence by retaining young rider Ben Curtis, who has guided the late-developing 3YO colt to stunning victories in his last two races.
SARATOGA SELECTION: $40 to Win. ($40)
TOTAL WAGERS: $247
PLAYS OF THE DAY: (20 bets): -$289.85
BEST BETS OF THE DAY: (20 bets): -$123.50
FAMILY FEUD: With eight days of the 2025 Saratoga meet remaining, Mr. Ed is tracking the duel for leading rider between brothers Irad and Jose Ortiz. The latter shut out brother Irad on Friday to bring the race to a dead heat. Number of wins for each rider at the beginning of Saturday’s 14-race card as follows:
IRAD: 49
JOSE: 49
