Saratoga Picks for Saturday, August 2 from Mike Somich:
It’s Whitney Day from Saratoga, and the card is absolutely loaded with stakes races and great betting opportunities. Let’s jump into a few of my favorites.
The Whitney, Race #11, Saratoga
While I’m looking forward to watching the race, this is one of my least favorite betting races on the card. My expectation is that #9 Fierceness will be bet down from his 9/5 morning line to close to even money. That would dilute the price enough to not bet on him to win.
I’ve got #7 White Abarrio as the main rival in this spot; both should sit a good, stalking trip in this spot with two cheap speed horses in the race. If White Abarrio floats up from his 4-1 morning line, he would warrant a bet here. Just throw out any race at a mile or under, and his form looks much cleaner. He’s won this race in the past, so we know he likes the track and distance.
One horse that does not like the track, according to his trainer Chad Brown, is the #5 Sierra Leone. He’s going to try to come from the back of the pace to win, and that is a tall task going two turns on the Saratoga dirt. He is capable of winning, but 2-1 is way, way too short to bet on it. It is likely he runs up into the trifecta.
#10 Post Time is the price that could surprise underneath. While he has not won a Grade 1, he’s run second in the Breeders Cup Mile, second in the Met Mile and third in the Whitney, so he can hit the board.
Top 4: 9-7-2-10
Saratoga Best Bets – $10 Tri 9-7-2,10, I’ll only use the 7 and 9 in multi-race bets
The Test, Race #10, Saratoga
Let’s go from a lukewarm opinion to a strong one. I really like the #1 Ragtime in this spot. She has done nothing wrong in two impressive starts versus older horses here at Saratoga at today’s seven-furlong distance. She has a ton of upside since she is so lightly raced. The pace should materialize for her to sit a very similar trip that led to her two victories. I doubt we get 4-1, but I would still play her at 2-1.
#6 Echo Sound is the morning line favorite and, while she can win, I don’t like her much here. Her price is mainly off her win in the Victory Ride at Saratoga, which featured a field of four horses where she tripped out. She does not have a race prior to that which would beat either of Ragtime’s efforts.
#5 Me and Molly McGee is the speed of the speed here and could be dangerous if she shakes loose. Both her wins came against older, but the waters get deeper here.
#2 Kilwin is an interesting entry since she is trained by Rusty Arnold, who has the favorite in Echo Sound as well. Her last plays in here and, at 6-1, I am more willing to find out if she can repeat that than I am on her shorter-priced stablemate.
Top 4: 1-5-2-6
Saratoga Best Bet – $50 Win #1
4Stardave, Saratoga, Race #8
#6 Intellect has had back-to-back races that look okay on paper, but was against the flow in both. In the Poker, he chased a very slow pace and still closed ground. In the Kelso, Prat had him closer to the pace due to the track conditions, and it caught up with him in the last furlong. Today’s the day, and 5-1 is a fair price.
#4 Think Big, who rallied to win the Kelso, will be tough if he can run back to that effort. He is tough for me to bet back due to the perfect trip, but he is a player.
#7 Spirit of St Louis cuts back to a mile today, and while he is the most proven horse going long, this may be a touch short for him. He’s a good underneath horse in this spot.
#3 Johannes is the morning line favorite coming in from California, and a horse that I generally play against. He’s a good miler, but the cross-country trip to face a better group of turf horses is a tough spot to back the shortest price in the field.
Top 4: 6-4-7-3
Saratoga Best Bet: $50 Win #6
Other Saratoga plays:
In Race #2, #5 Capital Partner is a standout. I don’t like the horses who have run, and this looks to be the best of the debut runners. I don’t think we are getting 7-2, but 5-2 is more than fair. I’ll play the 5 over the 1 and 3 in the exacta to try to juice up the payouts.
In Race #7, I will have a win bet on #13 Jefferson Street. He’s run well at Saratoga in the past, and Mott has historically been strong with this type of horse. We should also get every bit of the 9/2 morning line.
