Mike Somich’s Tampa Downs Picks:
While Kentucky Derby prep season is in full swing, it’s time to turn to Tampa Bay Downs for the Tampa Bay Derby. Last week was a phenomenal week of Derby preps featuring four of the top contenders, including Sovereignty, Barnes and Journalism. Make sure to check out the article from early this week on VSiN.com which included a couple of future bets that are in my account.
Tampa Bay Derby, Tampa Bay Downs, Race #11
This race features a host of horses who look to prove that they deserve to be on the trail. #7 Patch Adams will head back to the track after a disappointing race in the Southwest at Oaklawn. There was a boatload of excuses in that spot. It was his first time against the winner, going two turns, and he bobbled at the break. He broke his maiden coming from just off the pace and will likely have to have a similar trip today from the outside. He’s the most talented horse, but he needs to prove it today.
Trainer Chad Brown has two in here, including the favorite, #2 Chancer McPatrick. He was last seen in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile running a disappointing sixth, but he was undefeated heading into that spot, including two wins at Saratoga. He will be rolling from off the pace, but I’ve got distance concerns, and the price is way too short at 8/5.
The other Brown, #3 Hill Road is more interesting to me. He shipped over for his first and only try in dirt in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and was the only horse to make up ground from the back. Now he switches to a North American barn and adds blinkers for more early speed. He’s a threat who has some upside here.
#1 Owen Almighty has been on the Derby trail since September last year in the Iroquois, where he ran a good second. He stretched out to two turns for the first time in his last start here at Tampa and ran okay. Owen Almighty will have to improve, but there is a high likelihood that he makes the lead from the rail and thus, he’s got a shot.
The Bet – $50 Win #7
Columbia Stakes, Tampa Bay Downs, Race #7
This race features the return of #6 Zulu Kingdom who was one of the favorites in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar last year. He’s got the connections to run well here with Prat up for Chad Brown. That is a blessing and curse. While he is likely to run well, he will be over bet. At anything less than 2-1, it is tough to place a win bet.
I’ve raved about Cherie DeVaux to our benefit in this article before, so why not go back to the well? She has #4 Reagan’s Wit, who rolled to an eight-length victory at Fairgrounds last time out. He steps up to stakes company today but has a dominating turn of foot when he kicks into gear.
#1 Early Adopter is the other Brown in this spot and it sure feels like he is live. Yes, he lost two Zulu Kingdom two back, but he had trouble in that race and came back to just miss in his next start after a poor break. He also offers some value at 6-1 on the morning line.
Mark Casse ships in #9 Dream On who picks up the services of Irad Ortiz Jr. He had other options in here, especially with two Chad Brown horses, so it is interesting that he ends up here. He has won on the lead and won from off the pace. Here at Tampa, the closer to the front the better, and Dream On has that in spades.
The Bet – $50 Win #4
Other bets:
Tampa Bay, Race #9 – $50 Win #8
Santa Anita Race #10 – $50 Win #6nita Race #11 – $50 Win #8
