Tuley’s Takes: Day 1 Breeders’ Cup Picks:
Welcome to the Tuley’s Takes home office for Day 1 of the 2026 Breeders’ Cup on Friday, aka Future Stars Friday. As I wrote in my NFL and CFB columns this week, this is the busiest weekend of the year in the Tuley’s Takes home office, but we love the wall-to-wall action
We’ve enjoyed a lot of success in this event over the years and truly believe that’s because it’s ripe for our long-shot approach (similar to our “dog or pass philosophy in other sports), as there are always world-class-quality horses that get overlooked on the odds board, and our job is to find those live long shots, whether it be in the pages of Daily Racing Form, Bodog/Bovada website, ESPN.com and now VSiN.com since 2017.
For the uninitiated to my BC columns over the years, I’ll list my 1-2-3-Longshot selections on each BC race, starting with the 5 Juvenile races on Friday (and we’ll be back tomorrow with our “takes” on the 9 Saturday races).
My top choice is what I consider my “value pick,” as the horse with the best chance to outperform its odds, and thus the biggest chance to profit in the long run. When I talk about my winning BC selections over the years, I’m mostly talking about those top plays and don’t even include all the other overlays that have hit in our 2-3 and especially “Longshot” picks or the countless exactas and trifectas from boxing our plays. Those really come down to how you choose to play the horses I’ve pointed out.
Personally, I bet the most (Win and Place) on my top choice, which is almost always a longshot, but I will also usually bet my “Longshot” play, as sometimes I guess wrong on which is the right price play. I also start by boxing my four selections in Exactas and Trifectas in case we catch the right combos to hit the board, as that has also saved us in years we got blanked with our top choices, which can certainly happen when playing prices horse as we do.
As Trevor Denman would say, “And away we go …”
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint
Keeneland Race No. 6, 2:55 p.m. ET
1-#10 Harper’s Corner (8-1)
2-#4 Brickyard Belle (3-1)
3-#3 Libertango (5-2)
Longshot-#11 Hell of a Spin (15-1)
We start with 2-year-old turf sprinters going five-and-a-half furlongs, so this is a true sprint. We learned in Vacation Bible School (Ecclesiastes 9:11) that “the race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong.” It wasn’t until we were adults that we learned from the writings of Damon Runyon: “but that’s the way to bet.” We don’t always go with the speed horse in sprints, as closers win those races, too, but we’re going with #10 Harper’s Corner as we see value at 8-1 on the morning line to steal this race on the front end. Harper’s Corner looked like a winner in her (yes, she’s a filly taking on the boys and trying to become the third female to win this open race) last race in the Grade 3 Matron Stakes at Belmont but was run down by Brickyard Belle, who is the second choice (3-1) here behind favored Libertango (5-2). They are also both fillies. The Matron was at six furlongs, so the slightly shorter distance could help Harper’s Corner hold on for the win. If 8-1 isn’t long enough for you, my Longshot play is #11 Hell of a Spin (15-1), a colt bred in Ireland and has his recent running in England. He’s had a bit of “thirditis,” but that just tells me he should be in the running late against any competition. He has more tactical speed than the two favorites, so I’m hoping that gives him first run on the closers.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies
Keeneland Race No. 7, 3:35 p.m. ET
1-#1 Scarlett Begonia (15-1)
2-#10 Emphatic (9-5)
3-#5 Miss Monica (5-2)
Longshot-#9 Baditude (30-1)
The 2-year-old fillies are the total focus in this race, as boys aren’t allowed in this mile-and-a-sixteenth race that usually decides the 2-year-old filly champ. #10 Emphatic is a deserving 9-5 morning-line favorite as she’s undefeated in three career starts, including the Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes over this same track and distance at Keeneland, and #5 Miss Monica is also unbeaten, including the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante at seven furlongs. But we’re going to try to beat them. My value play is #1 Scarlett Begonia (15-1), trained by Brad Cox, who is usually sending out chalk but could have an upsetter here. She won her maiden race back at Ellis Park in July at 5.5 furlongs before losing her last two races, but still dangerous going further, as she finished third at 6.5 furlongs in the Grade 3 Adirondack at Saratoga and then second at a mile in the Grade 3 Pocahontas at Churchill Downs. She should get a stalking trip here and shouldn’t have a problem getting the extra distance. My longshot play is #9 Baditude (30-1), who is still a maiden but could be the speed of the speed after losing by just a neck last time out. If trainer Todd Pletcher can get her to improve at the right time, she could steal it.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
Keeneland Race No. 8, 4:15 p.m. ET
1-#8 Citrus Springs (15-1)
2-#9 Sun Goddess (6-5)
3-#10 Amusingly (7-2)
Longshot-#1 Green Empress (10-1)
This is also for 2-year-old fillies but over the one-mile turf course. #9 Sun Goddess, trained by Aidan O’Brien, is the prohibitive 6-5 morning-line favorite as she’s been superb with six wins in eight races this year and runner-up finishes in her only losses (once in her career debut). Europeans usually dominate the turf races, so she’ll be tough to beat – but we’ll try anyway. #8 Citrus Springs (15-1) is my top value play. She’s a Kentucky-bred, but has done most of her racing (coincidentally for O’Brien’s son, Joseph) in Ireland, where she broke her maiden in her third start. She has continued to improve by winning the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Fillies Stakes at Kentucky Downs right down the road in the Commonwealth. Now trained by Miguel Clement for owner Dean Reeves, Citrus Springs could be peaking at the right time. Meanwhile, Joseph O’Brien hasn’t been left empty-handed as he trains my longshot play, #1 Green Empress, who should get a ground-saving trip from the rail.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Keeneland Race No. 9, 4:55 p.m. ET
1-#1 Damavand (20-1)
2-#5 Hughes (1-1)
3-#3 Salahudin (6-1)
Longshot-#8 He Is No Lie (15-1)
Even though this is the penultimate BC race on Future Stars Friday, it’s really the featured race as it’s for the 2-year-old colt championship and often the early favorite for the following spring’s Kentucky Derby for 3-year-olds. Trainers Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher have long dominated this race with 11 wins between them, including the last five in a row. They have four entered here, so they’ll be tough to beat, and I’m not gonna try. That’s because my value play is actually a Pletcher-trainee, #1 Damavand (20-1). This is actually only his third career start, but after finishing fourth in his debut on Sept. 7 at Saratoga, he shipped to Kentucky and broke his maiden at a mile-and-a-sixteenth (the distance of Friday’s race) here at Keeneland. So, I like that he’s an improving 2-year-old with already a win under his saddle at this track and distance. Baffert has the even-money morning-line favorite in #5 Hughes as he’s 4-for-4 lifetime, including three graded stakes wins in California. We can’t toss him from the exotics no matter how low his price. I don’t really like any other longshots in this short field, but I’ll fill out my tickets with Baffert’s other starter, #3 Salahudin (6-1) and #8 He Is No Lie (15-1) from Derby-winning trainer Doug O’Neill.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf
Keeneland Race No. 10, 5:35 p.m. ET
1-#3 Florida Bay (20-1)
2-#10 Folsom Blues (7-2)
3-#5 How’s Al Today (3-1)
Longshot-#4 Haffner (8-1)
The final BC race on Future Stars Friday is the Juvenile Turf. Again, we’re looking for the foreign invaders that usually dominate these races. We also get another father-and-son battle with Aidan and Joseph O’Brien each having entries. I’m landing on the dad’s #3 Florida Bay (20-1) here as he’s not his top horse here, but I’ve often bet top trainer’s second- or third-stringers as they get the same schooling and sometimes bypass their classmates with the trainer not knowing how good they are. He should be on the lead, and most will say he’s a “rabbit” to set up the closers, but sometimes these improving horses take it wire to wire, and it’s worth a shot at the price. I have the son filling out the Exacta with #10 Folsom Blues (7-2) as he also finished second in his last two races after winning the Group 1 National Stakes at The Curragh Racecourse in Ireland. The morning-line favorite is actually an American colt, #5 How’s Al Today (3-1), who is 3-for-4, including winning the Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile Stakes last time out. It’s being reported that we’re going to have some scratches to diminish a chance for a real longshot, so we’ll go with #4 Haffner (8-1) in case it’s the O’Briens’ day!
