Few handicappers spot value at the Breeders’ Cup like VSiN’s Dave Tuley. His Friday selections are below- but if you want full coverage for all 14 championship races, you can grab our complete Breeders’ Cup Picks PDF with top plays and confidence ratings from Tuley and two other top handicappers.
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Tuley’s Takes: Day 1 Breeders’ Cup Picks:
This is one of my very favorite weekends of the year with all four major team sports in action in the U.S. of A., and then we add in some international flavor with the two-day Breeders’ Cup.
Day 1 of the 2025 BC is Friday, which is also Halloween (a big deal in the Tuley Haunted Mansion, so that makes this week more hectic, though still not as busy as the years when the World Series of Poker would hold the “November Nine” final table in the first week of November. I’ll give my “takes” on Friday’s five BC championship races and then return Friday to break down Saturday’s nine races.
We’ve enjoyed a lot of success in this event over the years – we love it because there’s always world-class-quality horses that get overlooked on the odds board and our job is to find those live long shots – in the papers of Daily Racing Form, Bodog/Bovada, ESPN and now VSiN.
For newbies to my horse racing approach, I’ll list my 1-2-3-Longshot selections on each BC race. My top choice is what I consider my “value pick” as the horse with the best chance to outperform its odds, and thus the biggest chance to profit in the long run (though it only really matters how they run today, right?). When I talk about my winning BC selections over the years (and I don’t know any public handicapper in the world who has picked more BC longshots over the years or who has a better ROI), I’m just talking about those top plays and don’t even include all the other overlays that have hit in our 2-3 and especially “Longshot” picks or the countless exactas and trifectas from boxing our plays. Those really come down to how you choose to play the horses I’ve pointed out.
For VSiN subscribers, you might have already seen my 1-2-3 choices in the VSiN Breeders’ Cup Pick Guide and these will be the same, except they didn’t ask me to include a Longshot, so I usually added that horse in the No. 3 slot when I really like them and otherwise just went with my 1-2-3 that you’ll see below.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (Del Mar Race No. 6, 5:45 p.m. ET)
1-#11 Schwarzenegger (5-1)
2-#9 True Love (7-2)
3-#12 Lennilu (8-1)
Longshot-#13 Later Than Planned (20-1)
#11 Schwarzenegger drew an outside post, but I don’t think that will keep jockey John Velazquez from getting him to the lead before the one and only turn in this five-furlong race. This is a shorter price than I look for in these wide-open BC races, but I still believe 5-1 is an overlay on what should be “the speed of the speed” who will play “catch me if you can.” #9 True Love is the deserving favorite and is the obvious danger to our upset pick, as he should be sitting just off the pace. #12 Lennilu could challenge our top choice for the early lead, so we have to use it in our exotics as well. I’m throwing in #13 Later Than Planned in case all the speed runs each other into the ground and the race falls apart for a big closer (not as likely at five furlongs, but never say never, as this is horse racing, after all).
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Del Mar Race No. 7, 6:25 p.m. ET)
1-#3 Meaning (15-1)
2-#1 Iron Orchard (6-1)
3-#2 Bottle of Rouge (9-2)
Longshot-#8 Super Corredora (15-1
The Juvenile Fillies is usually pretty formful (chalk has won 20 of the 41 runnings), but we’re still gonna try to beat Explora (5-2). Our value play is #3 Meaning, who only has a maiden win to her credit, but these are all your 2-year-olds and all have the right to improve rapidly. She was challenged for the early lead in her debut at Laurel and then took control, and we believe she can do the same thing here from her inside #3 post. #1 Iron Orchard and #2 Bottle of Rouge should be sitting off the early pace along with Explora, but I prefer them in the exotics. I used #2 Super Corredora as the No. 3 pick in the VSiN Betting Guide, as she could be the one to inherit an uncontested early lead if our top choice doesn’t fire.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Del Mar Race No. 8, 7:05 p.m. ET)
1-#11 Ground Support (15-1)
2-#1 Ultimate Love (8-1)
3-#13 Precise (6-5)
Longshot-#3 Imaginationthelady (10-1)
This has also been a chalky BC race (five of the last 11 following an 0-6 start after this race was added) and has also been mostly won by foreign invaders, but we’re looking at the American fillies. #11 Ground Support looks like she could be the lone controlling speed and steal this wire-to-wire. She did that in the Grade 2 Miss Grillo at Aqueduct four Saturdays ago and came from just off the pace in her maiden victory (which had even faster fractions). #1 Ultimate Love was almost my top choice off her 3-for-3 career start, but I just like Ground Support (and her odds) a little better. #13 Precise is the foreign horse I think we have to include in our exotics, as she could be the best in her class. #3 Imaginationthelady should be running late under Frankie Dettori and could blow up the toteboard (hopefully with Ground Support sticking around).
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Del Mar Race No. 9, 7:45 p.m. ET)
1-#1 Intrepido (8-1)
2-#8 Ted Noffey (4-5)
3-#2 Blackout Time (5-1)
Longshot-#6 Litmus Test (15-1)
For those who don’t know, the Juvenile for 2-year-old colts is the BC race that could produce some of the top contenders for next May’s Kentucky Derby for 3-year-olds. #8 Ted Noffey is the odds-on morning-line favorite at 4-5 off his Grade 1 wins in the Hopeful at Saratoga and Breeders Futurity at Keeneland. But as I said in the Juvenile Fillies above, anything can happen with these still young 2-year-olds, so I’m taking a shot with #1 Intrepido, who won the Grade 1 American Pharoah at Santa Anita four Saturdays ago. Four of the last 10 American Pharoah winners have gone on to win the Juvenile, including the two run at Del Mar. #2 Blackout Time is a danger is he inherits the lead with no real speedballs in this field, so I have to include him, along with #6 Litmus Test, who is flying under the radar, rare for a Bob Baffert trainee.
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (Del Mar Race No. 10, 8:25 p.m. ET)
1-#3 Outfielder (10-1)
2-#14 Gstaad (9-5)
3-#12 Bottas (6-1)
Longshot-#4 Third Beer (30-1)
#14 Gstaad is the clear favorite here, which makes sense as 12 of the last 18 Juvenile Turf winners made their prior start in Europe. #3 Outfielder is my top value play to steal this on the lead from his inside post, even though his last start was an allowance win at Keeneland (I might be cheating here as he finished fourth to Gstaad in the Group 1 Prix Morny in France). I have to use Gstaad along with #12 Bottas, who is 2-for-2 with a maiden victory at Saratoga and the Grade 2 Pilgrim Stakes four Saturdays ago at Aqueduct. For our longshot, I’ll toss in #4 Third Beer, who should be coming from the back of the pack along with Bottas, but at much higher odds.
