Tuley’s Takes: Day 2 Breeders’ Cup Picks:
Welcome to the Tuley’s Takes home office for Day 2 of the 2026 Breeders’ Cup.
We’re already through Day 1 on Friday – aka Future Stars Friday, as all were 2-year-old championship races at Keeneland in my former home of Lexington, Kentucky (circa 1993-94 when I worked on the copy/design desk at Daily Racing Form). But that was just five races, and we have nine more thoroughbred championship races on Saturday.
Our “takes” did pretty well overall on Friday’s five races, even though we went 0-for-5 with our Win and Place bets on our top value horses. We went 4-for-5 with our Exacta boxes with our Top 4 plays (1-2-3-Longshot) in each race.
In Friday’s very first BC race, the Juvenile Turf Sprint, we cashed a $226.62 Exacta ticket (based on a $2 base wager) with the winner #3 Libertango, our second choice, and runner-up #11 Hell of a Spin. We thought we had the Trifecta (which would have paid a heckuva lot more than the Exacta) as our top choice, #10 Harper’s Corner, set the early pace as expected and crossed the finish line third. However, there was an objection and Harper’s Corner was DQ’d (disqualified) and cost us the tri.
Our other three Exactas were chalky and paid only $30.62, $20.76 and $30.32 in Races 7, 8 and 10 (only one we didn’t hit was Race 9, the Juvenile), so those were losing races if including Win/Place bets on our top choices, but at least I felt my handicapping was solid and hopefully carries over into Saturday’s big card!
As I wrote Friday, we’ve enjoyed a lot of success in this event over the years and truly believe that’s because it’s ripe for our long-shot approach (similar to our “dog or pass philosophy” in other sports), as there are always world-class-quality horses that get overlooked on the odds board and our job is to find those live long shots, whether it be in the pages of Daily Racing Form, Bodog/Bovada website, ESPN.com and now VSiN.com since 2017.
For the uninitiated to my BC columns over the years, I’ll list my 1-2-3-Longshot selections on each BC race. My top choice is what I consider my “value pick,” as the horse with the best chance to outperform its odds, and thus the biggest chance to profit in the long run. When I talk about my winning BC selections over the years, I’m mostly talking about those top plays and don’t even include all the other overlays that have hit in our 2-3 and especially “Longshot” picks or the countless Exactas and Trifectas from boxing our plays. Those really come down to how you choose to play the horses I’ve pointed out and hopefully we meet at the window to cash.
Personally, I bet the most (Win and Place) on my top choice, which is almost always a longshot, but will also usually bet my “Longshot” play, as sometimes I guess wrong in which is the right price play. I also start by boxing my four selections in Exactas and Trifectas so we can catch the right combos if they hit the board like on Friday.
As legendary racecaller Trevor Denman would say, “And away we go …”
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
Keeneland Race No. 4, 1:10 p.m. ET
1-#8 Kerry’s Kiss (20-1)
2-#2 Ways and Means (7-5)
3-#11 Explora (4-1)
Longshot-#5 Foie Gras (20-1)
Saturday’s first BC race is a sprint (seven furlongs) for fillies and mares. #2 Ways and Means is the prohibitive 7-5 morning-line favorite and is certainly the most likely winner, especially if Saturday is anywhere near as chalky as Friday (which we certainly hope not). But, of course, we’re going to try to beat her as there are two knocks against her that make her a vulnerable favorite: she’s only won at Saratoga, but more importantly from my point of view is she’s breaking from the No. 2 post in a sprint that’s full of early speed and could get her shuffled back early. If she’s the best horse Saturday, she can still win, but we’ll look elsewhere for betting value. My top choice is #8 Kerry’s Kiss (20-1), who is 3-for-3 since cutting back to one-turn sprints for new trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. She breaks from the No. 8 post and doesn’t necessarily need the lead but I see her on or near the lead the whole way and hopefully wires the field at a big price. I’ll also use #2 Ways and Means (7-5) and Bob Baffert’s #11 Explora (4-1) in my exotics along with longshot multiple-stakes winner #5 Foie Gras (20-1).
Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
Keeneland Race No. 5, 1:48 p.m. ET
1-#5 Time to Dazzle (20-1)
2-#3 Bacio (5-2)
3-#4 Roja (3-1)
Longshot-#13 Starlust (20-1)
This second BC race is for male turf sprinters going just 5.5 furlongs, so it’s shorter, but that doesn’t mean we’re not looking for a closer here in a wide-open full field of 14. #3 Bacio is the 5-2 morning-line favorite, but that’s too short in this big of a field. He should be among the group of front-runners early and could hang on, but we’re going to concentrate on the closers to swallow up the pacesetters down the stretch. My value play is #5 Time to Dazzle (20-1), who has a last-to-first come-from-behind win over this Keeneland course in his prep race, the Grade 2 Franklin (which he also won in 2024 over this course) and will be flying late. We’ll include #3 Bacio (5-2) and another speedster, #4 Roja (3-1) in our exotics in case they stick around, but don’t sleep on our longshot, the feel-good story, #13 Starlust (20-1), who won this BC race in 2024 at Del Mar and has come back from retirement after a failed stud career. If he regains his prior (running) form, he could pull another upset.
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
Keeneland Race No. 6, 2:26 p.m. ET
1-#9 Forged Steel (15-1)
2-#4 Chunk of Gold (8-1)
3-#1 Further Ado (2-1)
Longshot-#3 Full Serrano (10-1)
I always like the BC Dirt Mile as it often gets horses we’ve all seen on the Triple Crown trail but who ended up not being able to get the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles to run in the Classic. And we certainly get that in #1 Further Ado, who is the 2-1 morning-line favorite here after being cross-entered in the Classic, but his connections chose this spot over the deeper Classic. And let’s face it, he was one of the top Derby contenders after romping by 11 lengths in the Blue Grass Stakes here at Keeneland before running 11th at Churchill Downs at a mile and a quarter. We’ll try to beat him here as well with #9 Forged Steel (15-1), who won this race in 2024 at Del Mar, just like Starlust mentioned above. I’ve had a lot of success over the years with former BC winners getting a second win, as they’ve proven they can do it on the biggest stage, and their connections obviously aim for the BC and know how to win these races. It doesn’t always work, obviously, but at 15-1 I’ll take my chances. I’ll use another speedster, #4 Chunk of Gold (8-1), with stalker #1 Further Ado in our exotics, and also use longshot #3 Full Serrano (10-1) as another early speedster.
Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf
Keeneland Race No. 7, 3:04 p.m. ET
1-#10 Expensive Queen (15-1)
2-#11 Precise (7-2)
3-#5 Kathynmarissa (5-1)
Longshot-#1 Gimme A Nother (10-1)
I’ve had very little success in this race over the years for whatever reason, but still think we can beat #12 Blue Bolt, as she’s won her last four at a mile, but this is at a mile-and-three-sixteeths. My value play if #10 Expensive Queen (10-1), as she is getting inflated odds after finishing sixth in her last race, the Grade 1 First Lady over this Keeneland course, as she certainly would have (and should have) been lower odds after winning her three prior races, including the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley (also over this course). In the First Lady, she had a troubled trip throughout and still only lost by 1 3/4 lengths! Expensive Queen has an outside post, which should help her get a cleaner trip. #11 Precise (7-2) is dangerous for Aidan O’Brien, who passed Bob Baffert for most BC training wins on Friday, as is #5 Kathynmarissa (5-1) and my longshot, #1 Gimme A Nother (10-1), who won the EP Taylor at Woodbine in Canada.
Breeders’ Cup Sprint
Keeneland Race No. 8, 3:42 p.m. ET
1-#5 Listenupshance (12-1)
2-#13 Englishman (4-5)
3-#7 Built (10-1)
Longshot-#3 Liam Smith (20-1)
The Sprint (six furlongs, or three-quarters of a mile) is obviously for sprinters, and #13 Englishman is at the head of the class after romping in three of his last four races (and the loss was at a mile). People are saying the outside post will work to his favor, but we’ll try to beat him anyway with some California speed (though Baffert doesn’t have an entrant). #5 Listenupshance (12-1) also comes in hot with back-to-back wire-to-wire wins in the Grade 1 Bing Crosby at Del Mar and Grade 2 Santa Anita Sprint Championship at, uh, Santa Anita. I’ll still use #13 Englishman in my exotics with #7 Built (10-1) but add in late-developing California longshot #3 Liam Smith (20-1), even though he’s taking a big step up in class, but is hopefully peaking at the right time to help light up the tote board.
Breeders’ Cup Mile
Keeneland Race No. 9, 4:20 p.m. ET
1-#4 Cabo Spirit (30-1)
2-#9 Rhetorical (8-1)
3-#8 Notable Speech (7-5)
Longshot-#11 Formidable Man (15-1)
I’ve had a lot of success in the Mile over the years finding live longshots from Europe, but I’m not as confident this year, as we have a defending champ, #8 Notable Speech, favored at 7-5. But we’re trusting the process – and hoping Notable Speech doesn’t repeat, as he also ran third two years ago, with both races at Del Mar, plus he’ll have a shorter stretch at Keeneland for his late kick – and I’m going with my value play on #4 Cabo Spirit (30-1), one of several potential pacesetters but who isn’t being touted much (ssssh!). #9 Rhetorical (8-1) could also set the pace or sit just off it and is certainly dangerous along with 8 Notable Speech (7-5), but we’ll also add longshot #11 Formidable Man (15-1) as a closer who could pick up the pieces if there ends up being a suicidal speed duel.
Breeders’ Cup Distaff
Keeneland Race No. 10, 4:58 p.m. ET
1-#7 Super Corredora (15-1)
2-#4 Fully Subscribed (8-5)
3-#2 Nitrogen (6-5)
Longshot-#1 Immersive (30-1)
The Distaff is the championship race for older female horses. With the scratches of Splendora and Scottish Lassie, there is just a field of seven, but it’s interesting to note that all seven are Grade 1 winners. Most people are saying it’s a two-horse race between #2 Nitrogen, the 6-5 morning-line favorite, and #4 Fully Subscribed, a strong 8-5 second choice, but I see it as a deeper and wide-open field. My top value play is on #7 Super Corredora (15-1), who can challenge Nitrogen on the lead. She wired the Grade 2 Zenyatta at Santa Anita last time out, though that was an uncontested lead. But speed is speed, and I certainly like the price better. I’ll also use the two favorites in my exotics – and actually give the edge to Fully Subscribed based on the pace scenario – along with another longshot speedster, #1 Immersive (30-1), who has a win over the Keeneland track (as a 2-year-old) but also benefits from drawing the rail if she can get off to a fast start.
Breeders’ Cup Turf
Keeneland Race No. 11, 5:36 p.m. ET
1-#1 Ethical Diamond (10-1)
2-#12 Diamond Necklace (3-1)
3-#2 Benvenuto Cellini (6-1)
Longshot-#7 Hotazhell (15-1)
The BC Turf is the marquee race on the grass for older horses, and has been won by Europeans in 10 of the last 11 years, so we start our handicapping by drawing a line through the three American hopefuls (I’ve come up empty far too many times trying to win this race with blinkers on). My value play is #1 Ethical Diamond (10-1), who won this race last year as a 27-1 longshot at Del Mar, and I’ve written several times (in past years and above) about liking these former champs to do it again. #12 Diamond Necklace, four-time Group 1 winner and coming off a third-place finish in the Arc de Triomphe, is the lukewarm favorite at 3-1, but we’ll use this foreigner along with Irish Derby winner #2 Benvenuto Cellini (6-1) and my longshot, #7 Hotazhell (15-1), who seems to be getting overlooked among all the strong invaders despite two Group 1 wins, including the Irish Champion.
Breeders’ Cup Classic
Keeneland Race No. 12, 6:16 p.m. ET
1-#7 Knightsbridge (9-2)
2-#3 Golden Tempo (5-1)
3-#5 Forever Young (2-1)
Longshot-#8 Napoleon Solo (15-1)
The BC Classic is the marquee race of the weekend, and it’s great to see it moved to the end of the card where it belongs (it was anticlimactic when run in the middle of the Saturday card the last three years; I get that it was done that way so it wasn’t too late on the East Coast and conflicting with as many primetime college football games, but it still wasn’t right). We have another stellar field of seven (after the scratch of Magnitude) for racing’s biggest prize, with another dangerous returning champion, #5 Forever Young as the 2-1 favorite. I’m going to try to beat him with #7 Knightsbridge (9-2), who I wrote above was cross-entered in the shorter Dirt Mile, but his connections opted to send his speed to the Classic to try to steal it in wire-to-wire fashion. I’m looking for him to get an uncontested lead – especially thanks to the scratch of Magnitude – to set his own fractions and be able to have enough in the stretch to hold off the closers. #3 Golden Tempo (5-1), the Derby and Belmont winner after his connections skipped the Preakness to deny him a shot at the Triple Crown, should be among those running late along with the favorite, #5 Forever Young (2-1), but I’ll also add my longshot, #8 Napoleon Solo (15-1), who came from just off the pace to win the Preakness but has also shown speed and could get first run on the other closers.
